拼多多（PDD）：宏观不确定性下的生态系统投资

2023A2024A2025E247,639.0393,836.0420,577.067,899.0122,344.076,224.0 2026E483,401.090,417.0 Thomas Chong * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8016 | thomas.chong@jefferies.comZoey Zong * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8163 | zoey.zong@jefferies.com The Long View: PDDInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•The success of the company's social e-commerce model derives fromthe competitive strength of its C2M model, which aggregates customerdemand rapidly with team purchases, helps merchants to achieveefficiencies,and disrupts the online shopping industry landscape,centered on its distributed AI technologies.•Monetization is a long-term story riding on PDD's GMV scale and hugebase.Base Case,$121, +24%•We expect the market to focus on PDD'sdevelopments in agriculture e-commerce.•We expect PDD to make further investmentsindrivingcustomeracquisition, and sales and marketing as a % ofrevenue to decline on year-on-year basis.•We expect PDD to focus on the long-term story instead of emphasizing near-termprofitability.•PT of US$121 based on SOTP valuation.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1)Manufacturers and agricultural producers typically rely on multiple layersof distributors to help bring their products to the mass market. Such a multi-stage distribution modelleads to unnecessary energy consumption and emissions because of extended delivery distances,excess packaging, and the operation of warehouses.2)The amount of data generated and exchangedon e-commerce platforms is increasing rapidly and users are increasingly concerned with the securityand privacy of the information they provide.Company Target(s): 1)Seek to lessen impact on the environment through C2M model andlivestreaming to cut down layers of intermediaries, thereby reducing wastage and promoting efficiencyand productivity.2)Adopt a distributed AI approach to improve data security on platform and affordbetter privacy protection to users.Qs to Mgmt: 1)What is the margin effect of digitalizing the supply chain?2)What are you investingin to enhance the data security?Please see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. engagement and Upside Scenario,$145, +49%•GMV growth comes in above expectations onmore rationalized competition.•Take rate ramps up faster than expected.•Faster-than-expected profitability timeline onoperatingleverage and more controlledmarketing spending.•PT of US$145 based on SOTP valuation. Downside Scenario,$73, -25%•GMV growth comes in below expectations onintensified competition.•Take rate ramps slower than expected.•Profitability takes longer than expected onaggressive marketing spending.•PT of US$73 based on SOTP valuation.Catalysts•More controlled sales and marketing expenseacross branding, user acquisition, and couponpromotion.•Friendlier competitive landscape. 2 Valuation and risks.We maintain our Buy rating and lower our PT to USD121 (prior USD156),factoring in the latest business developments post results. Risks include: (1) intensified domesticcompetition; (2) aggressive domestic S&M amid price wars; (3) stringent regulations on cross-border ecommerce, and (4) heightening geopolitical risks.Please see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 1 - PDD US: Income Statement.Income Statement (PDD US)RMB mnTotal RevenueYoY % changeCost of revenueGross profitGross marginSales and marketing expenseGeneral and administrative expenseResearch and development expenseOperating ProfitNon-GAAP operating profitNon-GAAP net incomeSource: Company, Jefferies estimatesExhibit 2 - PDD US: Balance Sheet.Balance Sheet (PDD US)RMBmnCash and cash equivalentsRestricted cashShort term investmentsPrepayments, deposits and othersOther non-current assetsTotal current assetsLoan to a related partyLT investmentsRight-of-use assetsPPEIntangible assets and goodwillDeferred tax assetsTotal non-current assetsTotal assetsCustomer advancesPayables to merchantsAccrued expenses and other liabilitiesOther current liabilitiesTotal current liabilitiesDeferred revenuesConvertible bondsLease liabilitiesDeferred tax liabilitiesTotal non-current liabilitiesTotal liabilitiesShareholders EquityMezzanine EquityTotal Sh. Equity + Liabilities+mezzanine equitySource: Company, Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 3 - PDD US: Cash Flow Statement.Cash Flow Statement (PDD US)RMBmnNet incomeOperating cash flowInvesting cash flowFinancing cash flowChange in cashFX / other adjustmentsCash and cash equivalents at beginning of yearCash and cash equivalents at end of yearSource: Company, Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended