全球化_宏观_思想_非理性_无性恋

Restricted-External28 April 2025Global Macro ThoughtsIrrational exuberancedisclosures and analyst certifications, please follow the links on each page and on page 8.behalf of certain clients. Such trading interests may be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report.Please see analyst certification(s) and important disclosures at the end of this presentation.Restricted - ExternalCompleted: 28-Apr-25, 09:11 GMT Released: 28-Apr-25, 09:15 GMT The world at a glance•The US seems willing to backtrack from the 145% China tariffs•However, tariff messages remain mixed and absolute levels high•US consumers and businesses are still front-loading purchases•Weak sentiment indicators have not shown up in hard data–yet•Making sense of it all Restricted-External Restricted-ExternalMixed messages on tariffs, over and over and over•The administration backtracked on tariffs last week, cheering markets1oThe president also said he wouldn’t try to fire Chair Powell, his clearest remarks on the topicoThis definitely took away a left-tail risk for markets, but doesn’t help the baseline tariff picture•Secretary Bessent acknowledged that 145% tariffs on China were unsustainable1oHe also noted that the US didn’t plan to decouple from the Chinese economyoPresident Trump has insisted that the US and China have been negotiatingoHowever, China keeps disavowing reports of talks, and has called it ‘fake news’•On Friday, Trump hardened his message on tariffs again, saying a new 90d delay was ‘unlikely’2oHe also said he would not drop tariffs unless China offered ‘something substantial’ in returnoChina’s stance continues to be that it will negotiate only after all tariffs are first dropped•Even if the 145% tariffs are dropped, media reports suggest that China tariffs will be 50-60%1oThe US also has sectoral tariffs on autos and metals and plans them on pharma and semiconductorsoIn addition, there are the fentanyl tariffs as well as the 10% baseline ‘reciprocal tariffs’oEven if the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ don’t worsen and China numbers drop, US tariffs look set to rise to 23-24%oThis is a ten-fold increase from the 2.4% average tariff that the US started the year at1Global Economics Weekly: Unpredictable(25 April 2025)2Trump Doubtful on Another Tariff Pause, Wants China Concessions, Bloomberg, 25 April 2025 28 April 20253 Restricted-ExternalRisk sentiment is still fragileMajor indices up from the lows, but stillbelow Liberation Day levelsSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchEquity Market Review–Damage control(25 April 2025) Any worsening of hard data could pose risksfor equities28 April 20254Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchEquity Market Review–Damage control(25 April 2025) Restricted-ExternalHard data should follow survey data–with a lag•US soft data has been extremely poor in recent months, especially in consumer surveys1oHousehold expectations of future conditions have collapsed, in both U Mich and Conference BoardoFor example, the ‘expectations’ index in U Mich was near 80 four months ago; now it is below 50oSimilarly, Conference Board surveys also show a startling drop in future economic confidence•On the other hand, hard data has so far held up in relative terms, for a few reasons1oFirst, there seems to be a new round of‘tarifffront-running’, from both businesses and consumersoDurable goods orders, for example, rose 9.2% last week even as the ex-transportation series was flat•Second, it takes several weeks for large goods-carrying cargo containers to travel from China to Long BeachoAs a result, the real impact of China-related shortages should only be felt in a few more weeksoBut every week that passes with essentially a trade embargo with China is causing damage, we feel, to the economyoThe ripple effects should be first felt through job losses in logistics and small, goods-importing businesses•On the positive front, the job market is not yet showing sharp signs of weakness1oInitial claims remain low; we expect 125k in payrolls on Friday, and we expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.2%oBut thelabormarket is a backward-looking indicator when the economy is softening•There are also the first signs that inbound tourism is being significant impactedoA number ofairlines have pulled guidance; Southwest’s CEO said airlines are already in recessionoThe American Airlines CEO was also very negative, and United ended up giving two sets of guidanceoAll told, we expect a sharp slowdown, and a likely US recession in the coming quarters1Global Economics Weekly: Unpredictable(25 April 2025)2Southwest CEOSaysUS Airline Industry Is Already in a Recession, Bloomberg, 25 April 2025 2 28 April 20255 We remain bullish 5y USTsWe view Fed terminal rate pricing as toohigh given sizeable growth risks…Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchGlobal Rates Weekly: A little less queasy(24 April 2025) Restricted-External…with too much weight being placed on theright tail of the distributionSource: Barclays ResearchGlobal Rates Weekly: A li