朝日英达科（7747）：向上修正和回购创造积极印象

FY6/25EFY6/26EFY6/27E119,800.8132,676.6141,809.5119,148.9129,061.0140,958.338,459.142,776.947,473.330,463.234,794.238,421.6 Stephen Barker * | Equity Analyst813 6830 3612 | sbarker@jefferies.comMiyabi Yamakita * | Equity Analyst+81 3 6830 3610 | myamakita@jefferies.com The Long View: Asahi InteccInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferAsahi Intecc is the leading global manufacturer of high-quality medicalguidewires.The company's sales growth is benefiting from steadilywidening access to surgery in developing countries, particularly China.Base Case,¥2600, +18%We arrive at our ¥2,600 PT by applying a target15x EV/EBITDA multiple to our estimates forFY6/26. We derive our 15x target from ourestimate of the company's current-year multiple.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1) Business Model Resilience.Asahi Intecc relies on R&D to replenish itsportfolio of marketed products. R&D productivity is extremely hard to measure. Without a consistentrate of new product launches, Asahi Intecc may struggle to grow revenues.2) Access & Affordability.The global device industry has attracted less criticism than the pharmaceutical industry about itspricing policies, but high-end devices are still expensive, which means that less-wealthy people havelimited access to the best medical solutions.Company Target(s):1) Asahi Intecc’s 2021 Sustainability Report includes a long list of goals related toenergy conservation and other environmental issues. The company also aspires to creating a fulfillingworkplace.Qs to Mgmt: 1)Asahi Intecc has a very high and rising ratio of female managers, which has gonefrom 30.3% in June 2019 to 32.5% in June 2021; how have you achieved this when so many othercompanies in Japan have very low ratios of sometimes less than 10%?2)Do you have any plans tointroduce numerical ESG targets?ESG Sector Deep Dive:Japan Healthcare ESGPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,¥3000, +37%If investors become very enthusiastic aboutAsahi Intecc's prospects and bid the shares upto a FY6/26E EV/EBITDA multiple of 18x, in linewith the multiple it enjoyed in FY3/24, the sharesmight trade up to ¥3,000. Downside Scenario,¥1700, -23%If the company's FY6/26E EV/EBITDA multiplewere to contract to 9x, in line with Olympus, theshares might trade down to ¥1,700.Catalysts•3Q results meeting at 1pm on Monday 2 Exhibit 2 - Asahi Intecc sales.(¥m)Medical Division revenueCardiovascularJapan-CVOverseas-CVChina tariff benefitNon-cardivovascularJapan-NCVOverseas-NCVOEMJapan-OEMOverseas-OEMMedical Division, TotalRevenueDevice Division revenueMedical ComponentsJapan-MCOverseas-MCIndustrial ComponentsJapan-ICOverseas-ICDevice Division, TotalRevenueTotal RevenueOperating ProfitMedical Division OPDevice Division OPUnallocated expensesUS TariffTotal Operating ProfitCore OPSource: Jef est. company info.Please see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 3 - Aashi Intecc financial summary.P&L(¥m)SalesGross ProfitsSG&A (ex-R&D)R&DEBITDACore OPOPNon-operating (net)Pre-tax ProfitTaxNet ProfitEPSBalance Sheet(¥m)CashTotal Current AssetsTotal non-current AssetsCurrent LiabilitiesLT LiabilitiesEquityTotal Liabilities and EquityCashflow(¥m)Operating Cash FlowInvestment Cash FlowFinancial Cash FlowChange in cashKey multiples/ratios(¥)Debt/Equity (%)Net Debt/Equity (%)Free cashflow yield (%)ROEROAPrice/sales (x)EV/Sales (x)EV/EBITDA (x)PBR (x)Dividend/shareDividend yield (%)Payout ratio (%)Source: Jef est., FactSetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionAsahi InteccAsahi Intecc was established in 1976 as a manufacturer of ultrafine stainless steel wire rope. The company is now a manufacturer of cathetertreatment medical devices. The main product is PTCA guidewire, for which it has the top share of the market in all regions around the world.Company Valuation/RisksAsahi InteccWe arrive at our ¥2,600 PT by applying a target 15x EV/EBITDA multiple to our FY6/26 estimates.Downside Risks include the risk that China's economy might decelerate, hurting demand from China. Government health care policies,reimbursement policies, and competition from firms including Terumo are also sources of risk. Upside Risks include the possibility that AsahiIntecc's market share gains in the EU and the US might accelerate on the back of new product introductions.Analyst Certification:I, Stephen Barker, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to th