特灵科技公司（TT）：管理层会议各垂直领域的高行业增长和市场份额提升使TT在多行业领域中脱颖而出

Restricted - External TTOVERWEIGHTU.S. Multi-IndustryNEUTRALPrice TargetUSD 476.00Price (14-May-25)USD 419.66Potential Upside/Downside+13.4%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchU.S. Multi-IndustryJulian Mitchell+1 212 526 1661julian.mitchell@barclays.comBCI, USJack Cauchi+1 212 526 9154jack.cauchi@barclays.comBCI, USKenyon C Pelletier+1 212 526 7516kenyonc.pelletier@barclays.comBCI, USMatthew Laflash+1 212 526 8639matthew.laflash@barclays.comBCI, USJimmy Yunhao Jiang+1 212 526 6042jimmy.jiang@barclays.comBCI, USHaemaru Chung+1 212 526 4758haemaru.chung@barclays.comBCI, US outlook for Education in the years ahead, fuelled by the traditional means of financing thisspend (municipal bonds etc). The company noted that higher education in particular is seeingsubstantial HVAC investment, as building comfort is a prime consideration for students.One market which very rarely comes up in HVAC discussions is the Industrial / Manufacturingvertical. We learnt that TT has a decent presence here, with AC units that sit alongside CNCmachines on the plant floor.Some of thesofterCHVAC markets include Life sciences, and parts of theOfficeand retailverticals....Due to energyefficiencyconsiderations...Around 30% of a commercial building’s energy is‘wasted’, with HVAC comprising 40%+ of a commercial building’s energy usage, so demandmanagement /efficientHVAC systems are an essential tool for building operators to controlcosts and increase tenant comfort.Thisefficiencydriver marks out CHVAC from most other building product categories (LV / MVelectrical equipment, locks, doors, fire, security etc) in our view, and drives higher growth forCHVAC across most verticals vs these other categories....High Services growth...:TT's Service business comprises one-third of sales, and has grownat a DD CAGR over the last 4 years (up from a HSD CAGR previously).This includes a mix of recurring service (i.e. a comprehensive agreement with a monthlycharge), break / fix activity, as well as equipment rentals. Over the lifetime of a unit, TTestimates that replacement / service / upgrade sales can be worth 8-10X the initial greenfieldequipment sales (this figure is inclusive of inflation over the life of the product), within AppliedCHVAC (this ratio is lower for unitary CHVAC, and lower still for RHVAC).In general, a large centrifugal chiller can last 25 years, with a major overhaul every ~8 years, andit generates maintenance / parts sales throughout the lifetime of the product, up until itsdecommissioning / removal at end-of-life.The high growth in Greenfield equipment in recent years (esp. in Datacenters) is barely reflectedin the current / recent Service sales growth rates, due to the warranty periods (which typicallylast 1-2 years following the commissioning of the equipment). The Service growth associatedwith the 2022-2025 installed equipment build-outs is really still to come.The company noted that it has a very high market share on servicing its own Applied units (90%+), and its service attachment rates are high across all geographies.In terms of competition, the Service market is much more fragmented in Applied CHVAC thanthe equipment market. Overall, in terms of Applied CHVAC market share, we estimate the top 4players (TT, JCI, CARR, Daikin) have 90% of the US Applied market, but maybe half this share inthe Service market.There are some service companies who are both customers of TT (parts etc) and alsocompetitors (on the mechanical maintenance side). TT also services some other OEMs'equipment, although this is not part of a major strategy, but is more to 'help out customers'(e.g. if the customer has a handful of TT chillers, and then 1 or 2 legacy units from another OEM)....And equipment share gains from the direct sales model...The direct sales model (a high 90%’s share of TT Americas Applied CHVAC sales are direct)enables de-coupled growth for TT because it makes it more nimble. For instance, there was a 2 major pivot over the past 5 years from a focus onOffice,to a focus on the Datacenter market,which is one of the drivers of TT's high Greenfield growth rates.Many of TT's rivals use much more of a 'reps' based sales model i.e. typically commission-based, with these repsofferinga range of products (indifferentcategories) to customers, fromdifferentOEMs. OEMs tend to choose the 'reps' model because it can save money near term byreducing the OEM's operating costs, but the downside is that it drives a gap between thecustomer and the OEM.In the service world, service technicians tend to be directly employed by the OEMs....TT's systems approach (which reduces the customers' payback times)...Many of TT's CHVAC rivals have more of a ‘product’ approach which compares with its ‘systems’focus. The latter tries to take into account various factors (ambient heat, building occupancy,comfort, gas prices vs electricity costs etc) in order to deliver the best outcome / fastest paybacktime for the consumer.Hence, the customer can save more money / gene