育碧娱乐公司：又一年的现金消耗

Restricted - External UBIP.PA/UBI FPEQUAL WEIGHTUnchangedEuropean MediaNEUTRALUnchangedPrice TargetEUR 9.25UnchangedPrice (14-May-25)EUR 11.68Potential Upside/Downside-20.8%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (EUR mn)1527Shares Outstanding (mn)130.85Free Float (%)70.0152 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)0.7Dividend Yield (%)N/AReturn on Equity TTM (%)9.40Current BVPS (EUR)14.72Source: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-PA52 Week rangeEUR 23.70-7.76Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingEuropean MediaNick Dempsey+44 (0)20 3134 5888nick.dempsey@barclays.comBarclays, UKAytaj Khalilli+44 (0)20 3134 2536aytaj.khalilli1@barclays.comBarclays, UK per year in the coming years." Of course this is unlikely to be a steady cash stream given thelumpiness of the business, and it relies on delivery, but we think it is helpful, provided that it isnot overwhelmed by cash burn at the rest ofUbisoft.Forecasts notably lower on profit and cash:Our net bookings forecasts in FY26 and FY27 areslightly higher but our operating income and FCF forecasts are notably lower in those years.UBIP.PA: Financial and Valuation Metrics EPS (EUR)FY Mar20242025202620272028EPS1.79A-0.56A-0.47E0.23E0.41EPrevious EPS1.79A-0.45E0.65E0.83E1.04EConsensus EPS1.27A-0.39E0.72E1.06EN/AP/E6.5N/AN/A51.228.5Consensus numbers are from Bloomberg received on 14-May-2025; 12:50 GMTSource: Barclays Research2 FIGURE 1. 4Q25 net bookings vs Barclays and Bloomberg consensus4Q24A4Q25A% Change4Q25E% VarBloombergCons Median% VarCompany Cons190.3349.783.8%118.8194.3%612.5451.7-26.3%672.6-32.8%802.8801.4-0.2%791.41.3%70.0100.944.2%109.9-8.2%872.8902.33.4%901.30.1%952.0-5.2%179%3%3%Source: Company Data, Barclays Research estimates, BloombergFY25 results and FY26 outlook commentaryFY25 results - partnership deals lower than expectedUbisofthas delivered €902.3m for 4Q25 on net bookings, which compares to company-compiledconsensus at €955.9m, Bloomberg median consensus at €952m and Barclays at €901.3m.Looking at 4Q24 in more detail, they were significantly ahead of us on PRI, but below on DigitalDistribution. We believe it is likely that this variation is because we had accounted forpartnership deals in Digital Distribution instead of PRI. They noted that excluding partnershipdeals, PRI was down low single-digits due to lower monetisation for some of the titles on theback of tough comps. We had not assumed that a mobile licensing deal would be a notable partof the deals revenue for the quarter.We were overall estimating around €420m from partnership deals and €183m from Assassin'sCreed Shadows in 4Q25. However, management noted that contribution from partnership dealsin 4Q25 were to a lower extent than 4Q24. For 4Q24, even though they have never said the exactamount, we had estimated around a €330m contribution from partnership deals. So, 4Q25contribution must have been less than that, implying Assassin's Creed Shadows and backcatalogue did better than our expectations as overall 4Q25 revenues were in line with ours.On Assassin's Creed Shadows, management noted that the game delivered the second highestday 1 revenueafterValhalla. On the ongoing performance, they noted that consumer spendinghas been outperforming Assassin's Creed Odyssey with a superior player count. Of coursepricing is higher for AAA games ($70) than when they released Odyssey ($60) and they haveavoided saying that the unit sales were higher in the same timeframe. Nonetheless, the deliveryof Shadows looks decent to us in a tricky environment. They expect the game to be a strongcontributor in FY26, and will see the release of the Claws of Awaji expansion later this year.Management also highlighted strong performance from Rainbow Six Siege, with net bookingsup yoy in the quarter.Mobile for FY25 overall was much higher than we expected at €295.4m (€202m for the quarter)vs our €154.1m, as a significant proportion of partnership deals came from Mobile in 4Q25.For FY25, non-IFRS operating income was -€15m (vs our €-23m), while FCF was €127.7m vs our€14m. The beat in the free cash flow was, we think, primarily due to larger inflow in workingcapital vs our expectations.We show 4Q25 net bookings and FY25 P&L vs Barclays and consensus in the table below anddiscuss other key highlights beneath it: % Var955.9-5.6%4 Key highlights•Non-IFRS net debt was €885m, ahead of our forecast mainly due to higher working capitalinflow.•Number of employees stood at 17,782 at the end of FY25.•On Partnership Deals, management noted that Q4 had "significant Partnerships," but to alower extent than last year. These included deals on back catalogue, cloud streaming rightsand a new mobile opportunity on one of the leading franchises "with strong expansionpotential," notably in Asia.•Management noted that they have completed their initial cost savings programme ahead ofschedule and slightly above their initial target of €200m. They are now aiming to reduce theirfixed cost base by at least another €100m vs FY25 over t