贝宝（PYPL）：OVAS最新情况信贷应成为财年适度上行的来源

Trevor Williams * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1546 | twilliams3@jefferies.comAlexander Glockner * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-8729 | aglockner@jefferies.comRyan Levine * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-1512 | rlevine4@jefferies.com$72.68^$70.00 | -4%$93.66 - $55.85FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD)98.6% | 867.90^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwiseJEF vs CONS20252026+2%+3%NMNMQ4FY1.265.101.275.08We estimate credit-related revenue grew 31%Y/Y in 1Q and drove ~14ppt of OVAS's 17%Source: Company filings, Jefferies EstimatesEquity ResearchMay 15, 2025 2024A2025E4.665.104.655.1031,797.032,630.931,797.033,246.5 2026E5.665.6734,488.735,468.2 The Long View: PayPalInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Transaction margin dollar growth ex-interest income on customerbalances remains in the mid-single digits over the medium term, drivenby consistent Branded checkout TPV growth of mid-single digits, animproving unbranded processing margin profile, and an increase in Venmomonetization.•We believe valuation is full for a mid-single-digit gross profit growth profileand continue to believe a further re-rating will be dictated by an accelerationin Branded Checkout TPV growth, which we struggle to underwrite givenlonger-term competitive concerns.Base Case,$70, -4%•Branded checkout TPV to grow consistently inthe mid-single digits through FY26.•Braintree TPV growth expected to slow onhigher churn of unprofitable volumes which addpressure to gross take rates but provide upliftto net take rate.•Transaction expense rate declining to andholding in low 90bps range through FY26.•Transaction margin dollar growth in the mid-single-digits through FY26.•P/E multiple expansion is limited,givenuncertainty around the growth algorithm, andconcerns on rising competition.•Price Target: $70; FY26E EPS: $5.66; TargetMultiple: ~12.5x.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1) Data Security: With over 430mn active accounts, $1.35T in 2022 totalpayment volume, and 22bn+ payment transactions annually, data and cybersecurity play a key role inmaintaining trust in the PYPL platform.2)Employee Engagement, Diversity, and Inclusion:a diverseand inclusionary workforce is critical to businesses operating globally (PYPL employees in 30+ countriesand 150 nationalities), which requires the ability to provide solutions and services that take into accountheterogeneous client perspectives across widely different nations and states.Company Target(s): 1)Net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2040(2)global workforce to have at least20% of discretionary income remaining after taxes and expensesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 11 - 16 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$85, +17%•Branded checkout TPV growth can accelerateto and maintain high-single digit growth ratedriven by recent initiatives•Braintree TPV growth slows to low-double-digits in FY26 but repricing efforts can providemeaningful contribution to TM$ growth•PPCP volumes ramp and provide tailwind tounbranded processing net take rates.•Adj. non-transaction OpEx growth can maintainlow-single-digits growth.•Transaction margin dollar growth acceleratesto a high-single-digit range in FY26 driven bycontribution from Fastlane•PT: $85; FY26E EPS: $6.25; Target Multiple:~13.5x. Downside Scenario,$50, -31%•Macrobackdropweakens,consumer spending.•Competition at checkout intensifies andpressures Branded TPV growth to be in the low-single digits in FY26•Lower interest rates present a multi-yearheadwind from over-earning on float income oncustomer balances•Transaction margin dollar growth in slows tothe low-single-digit range•Adj. non transaction OpEx leverage subsidesand limits EPS growth.•Value-added pricing benefit within unbrandedprocessing fails to gain traction and limits nettake rate expansion•PT: $50; FY26E EPS: $5.15; Target Multiple:~10x.Catalysts•Ramp in the Button’s new experiences andother initiatives allow for Branded checkout TPVgrowth to accelerate•Improving PSP margin profile driven bycontinued roll-out of PPCP and faster-than-expected contribution from Fastlane and VAS•Significant ramp in Venmo monetization suppressing2 Qs to Mgmt:1)What are you primarily investing in to maintain robust data/payments security?2)Whatare the main metrics you use to evaluate your success in fostering employee wellness?3)Increase totalrenewable energy use to 90% while maintaining 100% renewable energy for global data centers.ESG Sector Deep Dive: US Software, IT Services & PaymentsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 11 - 16 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Updating Our Detailed Bottom-up OVAS Revenue BuildWe’ve updated our quarterly build of OVAS revenue after incorporating several disclosures fromthe 10-Q.Within our bottom-up build, we size revenue contributions across the various buckets,which include:1)interest i