永恒（Zomato）：国内地位即将成为现实

2025A2026E2027E202,430323,238463,08410,790.016,477.826,721.95,270.08,952.315,280.99.9x6.2x4.3x 2028E637,20542,193.226,270.43.1x Vivek Maheshwari * | Equity Analyst91 22 4224 6135 | vmaheshwari@jefferies.comRajesh Kumar, CFA * | Equity Associate+91 22 4224 6314 | rkumar18@jefferies.comRushabh Bhachawat * | Equity Associate+91 22 4224 6114 | rbhachawat@jefferies.com The Long View: EternalInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferZomato is a play on the growing food services industry in India andincreasing adoption of digital commerce. With only ~20mn monthlytransacting users currently, Zomato has a long runway for customeracquisitionand revenue growth.Blinkit is the market leader in thefast-growing quick-commerce space and is set to see sharp marginimprovement in the steady state.Base Case,INR250, +5%In our base case, we expect a ~20% CAGR indelivery revenue over FY25-28. Unit economicstosteadily improve with scale as Zomatounlockscost efficiencies and as customerwillingness to pay for convenience increases.We value Zomato's food delivery business at45x FY27E adj. EBITDA, quick commerce at 4xFY27E fwd Sales, and Going-Out at 1x GOV toarrive at a price target of Rs250.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):Product Design & Lifecycle Management -Designing products/packagingwith minimal environmental and social impact is a key area of focus for retailers. Partnerships withNGOs/ recyclers/ local govt bodies, process redesign, etc. help retailers improve sustainability ofthe products and processes. Online retailers also have significant scope to improve sustainability inconsumption through order grouping, reusable packing designs, minimising plastic packing, etc.Company Target(s): 1)100% adoption of EVs in delivery fleet by 2030 as part of joining The ClimateGroup’s EV100 initiative.2)Enabling cycle-based and EV-based deliveries.3)Purchase of ~500kcredits from voluntary carbon credits market.Qs to Mgmt:1) What are the initiatives that you are taking to reduce use of plastic packaging? 2) Whatare the efforts that you are taking to optimize energy and water usage? 3) What are your targets onreducing GHG emissions and carbon footprint in the medium and long term?ESG Sector Deep Dive: Indian Consumer RetailPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,INR330, +39%In our bull scenario, we expect a 25% CAGRin delivery revenue over FY25-28E. We valueZomato's food delivery business at 54x FY27Eadj EBITDA and quick commerce at 4x FY27ESales to arrive at an upside price target of Rs330. Downside Scenario,INR200, -16%In our bear scenario, we expect a 15% CAGRin delivery revenue over FY25-28E. We valueZomato's food delivery business at 40x FY27Eadj EBITDA and quick commerce at 3x FY27Efwd sales to arrive at a downside price target ofRs200.CatalystsUpside catalysts•Strong macro and uptick in discretionarydemand•Rapid adoption of digital commerce•Better-than-expected trends in AOVs,uniteconomics•Successful ramp-up in groceryDownside catalysts•Increase in competition from new entrants•Slower-than-expected market growth•Adverse regulations for platform businesses 2 Exhibit 1 - Summary Income Statement.Consolidated (Rs mn)Net revenuesCOGSGross Profit% marginOperating expensesEbitda - Adjusted for ESOP expense% marginEbitda - ReportedDepreciationEbitOther incomeFinance costPBTTaxMinority interestPre-ex earningsExceptionalsReported PATSource: Company data, Jefferies estimatesExhibit 2 - Summary Balance Sheet.Consolidated (Rs mn)Shareholders' equityMinority InterestLease liabilitiesTotal equity and liabilitiesFixed assetsGoodwillNon current InvestmentsCash & liquid investmentsInventoriesSundry debtorsOther L&A and assetsPayablesOther liabilitiesProvisionsNet current assetsTotal assetsSource: Company data, Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionEternalZomato is one of the leading food tech platform in India with a presence across ~800 cities in India. It is also the leading player in the fast-growing quick-commerce category.Company Valuation/RisksEternalWe value Zomato on an SoTP basis, with the food delivery business at 45x FY27E adj EBITDA, quick commerce at 4x FY27E fwd sales, andGoing-Out at 1x GOV, to arrive at a price target of Rs250. Key risks include increase in competition, lower-than-expected market growth, andadverse regulations.Analyst Certification:I, Vivek Maheshwari, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Rajesh Kumar, CFA, ce