沃利：未来的过渡年

2025E2026E2027E13,286.313,370.414,505.94875045300.930.991.070.881.051.14 Ramoun Lazar * | Equity Analyst+61 293642930 | rlazar@jefferies.comHenry Copley * | Equity Associate+61 293642932 | hcopley@jefferies.comKai Erman * | Equity Analyst+61 293642997 | kerman@jefferies.comSource: Jefferies estimates The Long View: WorleyInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferWorley is a global leader in engineering solutions for the resources, energy,and chemicals sectors, across Americas, EMEA & APAC. Capex spendacross these sectors will continue to be the main driver for Worley's growth.We are confident that the group has passed its earnings low point andshould continue to see earnings upgrades come through as the cycle rollson.Base Case,AUD16.18, +25%Global Oil, Gas and Chemicals capex resumesata Mid-single-digit pace in FY25-26.Ourbase-case scenario also assumes operationalleverage is delivered and that Worley is ableto generate incremental margin synergies fromincreased use of the Global Integrated DeliveryProcesses.Our Base Case price target is A$16.18 which isderived from our PE Relative valuation.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues:1) Combat climate change and its impacts 2) Ensuring the health and safety of employees 3) Industryinnovation and infrastructureCompany Targets:1) Commitment to achieve Net Scope 1 & 2 by 2030 as well as Scope 3 by 20502) Aspiration to derive 75% of revenue from sustainability-linked projects (includes gas) by 20263) Board composition of at least 30% women through to FY25Questions to Management:1) What investment is required to achieve your sustainability goals and what are the earningsimplications?2) What plans are in place to improve safety metrics?3) How do the margins compare between new sustainability-linked projects (ex gas) and traditionaloil & gas projects?Please see important disclosure information on pages 13 - 18 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,AUD18.61, +43%Global E&P and chemicals capex rebound at ahigh single digit pace in FY25-26. Our upsidescenario also assumes that operational leverageis delivered in the recovery and that Worley isable to generate incremental margin synergiesfrom increased use of the Global IntegratedDelivery processes.Our Upside case price target is A$18.61 which isderived from our PE Relative valuation. Downside Scenario,AUD10.84, -16%Global E&P and chemicals capex resumes atalow single digit pace in FY25&FY26.Operational deleveraging more than offsets theECR synergies and cost out program.Our Downside case price target is A$10.84 whichis derived from our PE Relative valuation.CatalystsWorley announces significant contract awards.A significant uptick in these announcementswould likely be taken as a positive.Outside of this, the shares will likely continue tobe affected by movements in the oil price. 2 Table 1 - Key Financials.Income Statement(A$m)Sales% growthEBITDA% growthD&AEBITAAmortisation of intangiblesEBITInterestTax expenseMinoritiesNPAT (underlying)NPATA (underlying)EPS (underlying ¢)EPSA (underlying ¢)DPS diluted (¢)Payout on EPSSegments(A$m)Segment RevenueProfessional ServicesConstruction and FabricationProcurementSegment EBITAProfessional ServicesConstruction and FabricationProcurementSegment EBIT Margin (%)Professional ServicesConstruction and FabricationProcurementOperating MetricsRatiosSales growth (%)EBITA marginD&A/salesROE (%)ROIC (NOPLAT) (%)EPS growth (%)Equity ValueNet DebtEnterprise ValueNet debt/EBITDA (ex leases)FCF YieldProcurement(A$m)Revenue ex ProcurementProcurement RevenueTotal RevenueEBITAMargin (ex procurement)Source: Jefferies estimates, Company reportsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 13 - 18 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Guidance and ForecastsTable 2 - WOR Forecast Changes.Total Revenue - OperatingTotal EBITDAD&ATotal EBITANet interestTaxNPATNPATAEPSASource: Jefferies estimatesTable 3 - WOR Forecasts v Consensus.EarningsTotal Revenue - OperatingTotal EBITDATotal EBITA - OperatingNet interestNPATNPATAEPSA (cents)Source: Company reports, Jefferies estimatesChart 3 - EBITA margin ex procurement.7.1%6.6%6.9%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%FY18FY19FY20Source: Company reports, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 13 - 18 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. JEF13,2861,020D&A-195825-80Tax-22242348792.85.6%6.9%7.3%FY21FY22FY23 Source: Jefferies, Company reports ValuationChart 5 - Worley: P/E Rel to ASX200.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Source: Factset, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 13 - 18 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Contract award analysisChart 7 - Backlog (A$bn).3.13.24.18.28.88.311.312.012.40.05.010.015.020.0Jun-21Dec-21 Jun-