字母表公司（GOOGL）：双子座之年谷歌人工智能无处不在

2025E2026E327,633.1366,863.5331,012.0369,381.06.6x5.9x5.3x6.9x6.2x5.5x 2027E410,400.2408,712.44.7x4.9x Brent Thill * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1559 | bthill@jefferies.comJohn Byun * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1558 | jbyun@jefferies.comMaximilian Joseph * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8926 | mjoseph1@jefferies.comShengQi Lin * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8504 | slin4@jefferies.com Attractive valuation.GOOGL closed down 2% and down 13% YTD vs. COMP -1% and trades at10.6x NTM EV/EBITDA vs. 9x trough and 12x 10-yr avg. We believe GOOGL's fundamentals areintact, bolstered by Gemini traction, and see an attractive risk/reward profile.Please see our event notes inside.Please see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. The Long View: Alphabet, IncInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•In our view, the core search business is still attracting incremental addollars in the shift to digital and mobile•YouTube is the best-positioned platform to take advantage of a sizableonline video opportunity•Google Cloud could be the next break-out play for shares•Call options in place for both the near and longer term: GCP, AI, GoogleHome, Pixel, YouTube TV, WaymoBase Case,$200, +22%•Continued search strength, aided by increasingcontributionfrom mobile,YouTube,AI andinternational expansion•Net revenue growth of 11% in 2025•Op margin ~38%•EBITDA in 5-8 qtrs: $192bn; Target Multiple:12x; Price Target: $200Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):1) Customer Privacy:Risk management for personal information that thecompany is in possession of. This is a top issue for social media companies, like GOOGL, that collectand rely on user data to provide targeted advertisements. Regulators are increasingly focused on thedepth and form of user data that are collected and used to target advertisements.2)Data Security:Risks associated with the collection, use, retention, and disposal of confidential information. Internetcompanies like GOOGL have amassed large amounts of user data that could be used in harmful waysif exposed.Company Target(s): 1)By 2030, aims to achieve net-zero emissions across all operations and valuechain, including consumer hardware products, and become net water positive.2)By 2030, become thefirst major company to run on carbon-free energy 24/7, 365 days a year.Qs to Mgmt: 1)What is GOOGL investing in to protect customer data?2)What is GOOGL doing to ensureit meets its 2030 goal of net -zero emissions while pursuing its AI initiatives?Link to Sector Note: ESG Sector Deep Dive: Internet Media & ServicesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$255, +56%•Additional contribution from Google CloudPlatform, YouTube TV, AI, and new hardwareinitiatives•FY25 revenue growth in mid+ DD %•Op margin expands to high-30s %•Multiple expansion driven by success withnew initiatives, call options around autonomousdriving and AI•EBITDA in 5-8 qtrs: $211bn; Target Multiple:14x; Price Target: $255 Downside Scenario,$125, -24%•Core search business begins to slow, impactsfrom new initiatives are mostly muted•Revenue growth slows to single digits in FY25•Op margin declines to low/mid-30s %, driven byrising TAC, continued investment spend in newinitiatives•Multiple contraction as revenue growth slowsand costs rise•EBITDA in 5-8 qtrs: $182bn; Target Multiple 8x;Price Target: $125Catalysts•Rising importance of YouTube in a video-firstworld•Emergence of Google Cloud as a formidablecompetitor in the public cloud•Platform positioning of Google Assistant and AIacross multiple products, providing a coherentlong-term strategy to defend dominant positionin core search•Increasing disclosures for YouTube,GoogleCloud, Waymo•Ad industry data points on shape of spendtrends due to macro cycles 3 Raw NotesSpeaker: CEO Sundar Pichai•Gemini era•Shipping AI faster than ever; announced dozen+ models since last I/O•Gemini 2.5 Pro is #1 in all LMArena categories; #1 in WebDev Arena.•Cursor Gemini is fastest growing model of the year•Full stack approach to AI•Ironwood -7th gen TPU - 10x performance, 42.5 exaflops of computer per second•Coming to Google cloud later this year•Fastest intelligence, highest performance with better price•Google stated they are leading the pareto frontier•Processed 9.7T in Apr 24, 480T+ tokens processed now•50x increase•Developers 7M+ across AI studio and AI vertex•Gemini app- 400M+ MAU•For those who are using 2.5 pro models in Gemini app, usage has gone up 45%•Search - overview, 1.5bn users a month - bringing more GenAI in search than any othersproducts•AI mode is the biggest step to search•New phase in AI platform shift•Project Starline - 3D display - same room as someone even if far•GOOGL beam - new AI first video communications platform - 2D to 3D realisticexperience•6 camera ca