进入第二季度经济活动减速：欧元区和英国5月PMI初值

Restricted - External Saadalla Nadra-Yazji+ 33 (0) 1 44583624saadalla.nadrayazji@barclays.comBBI, Paris FIGURE 1. EA May PMIs showed further signs of weakening in servicesFIGURE 2. The deterioration in EA May PMIs was the largest inGermany4042444648505254565860Jan-19Nov-19 Sep-20 Jul-21 May-22 Mar-23 Jan-24 Nov-24LevelComposite PMIsEuro areaGermanyFrancePeriph. (EA ex. GE and FR)Source: S&P Global, Haver Analytics, Barclays ResearchSource: S&P Global, Haver Analytics, Barclays Researchproducts. In this context, it is worth noting the improvement in firms’ assessment of netexport orders (+1.4pt to 50.0), especially in Germany and the periphery, which remain moreexposed to the US market than France, where the manufacturing export order index declined.Demand conditions continued to deteriorate in the services sector.At the EA level, thepace of contraction in outstanding business (–1.8pt to 46.3), new business (–0.8pt to 48.1)and new export orders (–2.6pt to 46.2) widened in May. This suggests that services activity(48.9) is likely to remain on a downward trend in upcoming releases, as elevated uncertaintyis set to continue to weigh on consumer and business spending and investment decisions.The May PMI survey provided reassuring signals on price dynamics (Figure 3), with bothinput and output price pressures easing at the composite level. Sequentially, the inputprice index edged lower in the manufacturing sector (–0.8pt to 48.1), while it rose marginallyin services (+0.2pt to 58.4), though it remains close to pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, thedeceleration in output prices was broad-based across sectors and particularly pronounced inGermany and France. Looking ahead, we expect the normalisation in output prices tocontinue, including in the services sector, as the weak demand environment is likely to exertfurther downward pressure on firms’ pricing power and margins.On the labour market front (Figure 4), the May survey was consistent with flat employmentgrowth at the EA level (-0.3pt to 50.0) with employment still contracting in the manufacturingsector (+0.5pt to 47.9) and showing renewed signs of loosening in services (-0.7pt to 50.6).2 •• Source: S&P Global, Haver Analytics, Barclays ResearchUnited KingdomThe UK flash composite PMI edged up in May to 49.4, from 48.5 in April, coming in slightlyabove our expectation (49.1) and the Bloomberg consensus (49.3).However, it remainedbelow the 50 no-expansion threshold for the second consecutive month. The composite figuremasksed divergent sectoral dynamics (Figure 5): manufacturing output declined (-1.0pt to 44.8),while headline services activity improved (+1.2pt to 50.2). The headline manufacturing index (aweighted composite of five sub-indices) decreased by 0.3pt to 45.1, with declines recorded in allof new orders, output and employment.Overall, the May PMIs continue to point to a marked deceleration in private sector activityin Q2 (Figure 6). Taken at face value, the readings are consistent with a slightly negative GDPprint for the quarter. Labour market conditions remain fragile, particularly in the manufacturingsector.On the prices front, both input and output price indicesofferedencouragingsignals, reversing most of their April up-tick. This suggests that firms have now largelyinternalised theone-offcost pressures stemming from the increase in National Insurancecontributions and the National Living Wage.In more detail, our main takeaways from today’s print are:•In level terms, if unchanged in June, the composite PMI would remain consistent with a slightcontraction in private sector activity in Q2. However, we believe this may overstate the extentof the slowdown in real GDP growth. We continue to expect the economy to expand by 0.2%q/q, partly on account of carryovereffectsand a marginally better global outlook. That said,the PMIs remain broadly aligned with our expectations of subdued private consumptiongrowth (+0.1% q/q) and a contraction in investment (-0.2% q/q). We expect publicconsumption (+1.0% q/q) to be the sole domestic growth driver this quarter.•At the sector level, the UK PMIs painted adifferentcompositional picture compared tothe euro area. In May, the pace of contraction in the manufacturing sector widened further,while services activity rebounded (+1.2pt to 50.2), returning – albeit timidly – intoexpansionary territory. According to the survey press release, this rebound may have beensupported by improved weather conditions, which helped to boost business activity in partsof the economy.22 May 2025 3 FIGURE 5. May flash composite UK PMI up, driven by the servicesFIGURE 6. UK PMIs point to a marked deceleration in real GDP growthin Q2-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.020253035404550556065701112 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26Composite PMI and GDP gowthPMI composite (lhs)GDP q/q growth (rhs)Source: S&P Global, Haver Analytics, Barclays ResearchSource: S&P Global, Haver Analytics, Barclays Research•Demand conditions remained subdu