i-Tail公司（ITC TB）：维持持有评级，目标价下调至13.50泰铢

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Singapore BranchView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsMAINTAIN HOLDTARGET PRICE(THB)PREVIOUS TARGET(THB)13.5014.60SHARE PRICE(THB)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE11.70+15.4%(as of21 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(THBm)35,100Market cap (USDm)1,0723m ADTV (USDm)3FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(THB)Year to12/2024aHSBC EPS1.20HSBC EPS (prev)1.20Change (%)0.0Consensus EPS1.27PE (x)9.8Dividend yield (%)6.4EV/EBITDA (x)5.2ROE (%)15.252-WEEK PRICE(THB)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesSelviana Aripin*, CFAAnalyst, ASEAN ConsumerThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Singapore Branchselviana.aripin@hsbc.com.sg+65 6658 0610Rayman Kaur Chadha*AssociateBangalore* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesFood ProductsThailand05/2411/24Target price: 13.50High: 25.25 Low: 11.70 Current: 11.70 Free floatBBGRIC12/2025e0.811.06-24.11.1214.57.78.911.6 22%ITC TBITC.BK12/2026e12/2027e0.880.961.101.17-20.1-17.71.211.2413.312.25.25.67.97.114.615.310.0018.5027.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eProfit & loss summary(THBm)Revenue17,72918,58419,171EBITDA4,5453,4863,823Depreciation & amortisation-568-793-894Operating profit/EBIT3,9772,6932,929Net interest-600PBT3,7382,6932,929HSBC PBT3,7382,6932,929Taxation-141-269-293Net profit3,5972,4232,636HSBC net profit3,5972,4232,636Cash flow summary(THBm)Cash flow from operations3,8092,8823,333Capex-1,084-1,327-982Cash flow from investment-5,182-1,327-982Dividends-2,250-2,698-1,818Change in net debt-2,3867,424-532FCF equity2,7251,5552,351Balance sheet summary(THBm)Intangible fixed assets343637Tangible fixed assets6,0526,5846,671Current assets19,17512,42213,187Cash & others11,6904,2684,801Total assets26,92820,78421,692Operating liabilities2,7443,1493,233Gross debt454749Net debt-11,645-4,220-4,752Shareholders' funds24,13817,58818,411Invested capital10,82811,62611,862Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue13.84.83.2EBITDA51.7-23.39.7Operating profit61.9-32.38.8PBT54.8-28.08.8HSBC EPS57.7-32.68.8Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)1.71.71.6ROIC36.121.622.4ROE15.211.614.6ROA13.810.212.4EBITDA margin25.618.819.9Operating profit margin22.414.515.3EBITDA/net interest (x)754.1Net debt/equity-48.2-24.0-25.8Net debt/EBITDA (x)-2.6-1.2-1.2CF from operations/net debtPer share data(THB)EPS Rep (diluted)1.200.810.88HSBC EPS (diluted)1.200.810.88DPS0.750.900.61Book value8.055.866.14Financials & valuation:i-Tail Corp PCL 1Q25 resultsITC: 1Q25 resultsTHBmSalesCost of salesGross ProfitGross profit marginSelling expensesAdministrative expensesOtherIncomeEBITEBIT marginAdjusted EBITAdjusted EBIT marginDepreciation andamortizationEBITDAEBITDA marginAdjusted EBITDAAdjusted EBITDA marginAdjusted for:IPO related one-off expensesSAP system and other consulting feeOther gain (loss), netFinance costsPBTIncome taxTax ratePATNon-controlling interestsPATMINet marginAdjusted PATMIAdjusted Net MarginAdjusted for:COVID-19 related one-off expensesOther adjustmentSource:Company data, HSBC estimates, LSEG Eikon for consensusChange inestimatesWe cut our net income estimates by 24%/20%/18% for 2025/2026/2027e respectively due tolowerrevenueestimates and higher COGS estimates for FY25 as we incorporate 1Q25 results. 3 We showour forecasts vs consensus in the table below.ITC: HSBC vs Consensus_________2025e_____________________2026e_____________________2027e__________THBmHSBCConsensus% diffHSBCConsensusRevenue18,58419,033-2%19,171EBIT2,6933,370-20%2,929Net profit2,4233,386-28%2,636TP (THB per share)13.5019.23-30%Source:HSBC estimates, LSEG Eikon for Consensus We present our DCF valuation in the table below.ITC: DCF valuationTHBmFY 2025eFY 2026eRevenue18,584% changeEBIT2,693% margins14.5%Tax rate10.0%Net operating profit after tax2,423Plus: Dep and amortisation793% of revenue4%Less: Capital expenditures(1,327)% of revenue7.1%Less: Increase in net working capital(335)% changeFree Cash Flow1,555% changePV of free cash flow1,373Terminal ValuePV of terminal value19,003Enterprise Value27,428Net Debt(11,645)Non-controlling interest0.445Investments0Equity Value39,072Time adjustment1.04Adjusted equity (THBm)40,543Sharesoutstanding (m)3,000Value per share (THB)13.5Target price (THB)13.5Source:HSBC estimatesValuationCurrent price:Target price:Up/downside:We continue to value i-Tail using a DCF valuation methodology.We cut our target price to THB13.50 (from THB14.60) andmaintain our Hold rating.The lower TP is due tocut in our netincome estimates.Our DCF modelassumes a 2025e-29e FCF CAGR of 19%(previously 10%) and a WACC of 13.3% (unchanged)with acost of equity of 13.3% (unchanged), based on a 3.75% riskfree rate (unchanged) and 5.25% equity risk premium(unchanged), based on HSBC equity strategists’ latestassumptions, as well as an addit