特种轮胎 接近底部并进一步整合

7%36%57%2022Construction, Mining & Industrial handling 8%31%61%20232024 9%31%60% Michael Aspinall * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 20 7029 8431 | maspinall@jefferies.comPhilippe Houchois ^ | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8983 | philippe.houchois@jefferies.comOwen Paterson * | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7548 4745 | opaterson@jefferies.comKiara Asinobi * | Equity Associate+44 (0)20 7548 4542 | kasinobi@jefferies.comSource: Jefferies, CEMA Business Barometer Figure 2 - Specialty tyre competitorsYokohama will be €2.4bn pro forma Goodyear OTR.EURmMichelinRevenueEBIT marginBridgestoneRevenueEBIT marginYokohamaRevenueEBIT marginContinentalRevenueEBIT marginShare of a c€13bn marketMichelinBridgestoneYokohamaContinentalOtherSource: Jefferies, Company reportsOutlook for key verticals.Our view is that we are near the low point in the cycle for several ofthe key verticals. For Agriculture post a period of under production to clear inventory in 1H25,2H25 will see production match sales before a cyclical recovery in '26. In Construction, Volvohas commented that there are early signs the market may have bottomed. In Mining thereare no strong signs of increasing activity levels with relatively low commodity prices, however,production is fairly consistent in bulk commodities (iron ore, coal etc) and channel inventoryis lower post a period of de-stocking in '24 (1Q ML mining sales were stable). In Aircraft, weexpect a flattish market with no notable recovery evident at this time.Figure 3 - Agriculture: Nth America Row Crop and Combine Sales (SAAR).Source: Jefferies, AEMUpgrade Michelin to Buy.In conjunction with this note we upgrade Michelin to Buy link here.We also downgrade Continental to Hold. In terms of relative valuations Michelin is now at adiscount to Pirelli and is almost in line with Conti. At the same time the outlook for the keycyclical component of earnings is improving as we are nearing a trough.Please see important disclosure information on pages 16 - 20 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Summary of ChangesCompanyContinentalCON GRMichelinML FPPirelliPIRC IM^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.Please see important disclosure information on pages 16 - 20 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. RatingPrice^HOLD€77.56BUY€33.57BUY€6.17 Key specialty tyre verticalsAgriculture.The agriculture industry is nearing the bottom of its cycle, with '25 widely expected tomark the trough. CNH notes that the 21-month downturn is consistent with the historical averageof 22 months, though persistent uncertainty surrounding trade and elevated interest rates couldprolong the recovery. Deere echoes this, identifying '25 as the low.Despite ongoing weakness, particularly in large ag equipment (-40% vs '23), Deere expects a 2H25inflection on easier comps and stabilising markets. AGCO expects a similar set up, with 2H25production ramping up following inventory destocking and production cuts in 1H.Figure 7 - Agriculture: Nth America Row Crop and Combine Sales (SAAR).Source: Jefferies, AEMFarmer sentiment has also been improving as shown by Purdue’s Ag Economy Barometer, whichrose 8 points in April on tariff optimism. As shown in Figure 7 retail sales have reached prior cyclelows, supporting the view for a gradual recovery into '26.Figure 8 - CEMA Business Climate Index turns positive for the first time since Summer '23.Source: Jefferies, CEMA Business BarometerWe haven't yet seen trade for ag tyres inflecting, however, the YoY decline has eased. In individualmonths there is YoY growth but this is not widespread. Our upgrade of Michelin is premised onthe view that that we are near the bottom for ag tyres though it may be several months away,with future trade data to confirm the cyclical recovery.Please see important disclosure information on pages 16 - 20 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Figure 9 - Agriculture tyres value % chg yoy.(60%)(40%)(20%)--20%40%60%80%100%US Agri value % chg yoySource: Jefferies, Eurostat, US TradeConstruction.End markets are stabilising into 2H25. Catepillar expects moderating y/y declinesin RI and CI as volumes gradually improve on easier comps. Volvo’s book-to-bill remains healthyacross regions with Q1 at 111%, Europe at 131%, Nth Am at 114%, and Sth Am at 125%. Volvoalso noted early signs that the market may have bottomed. Europe led the downturn in late '24,and saw heavy destocking through 3Q. But by 4Q, there were signs of stabilisation. Despite flatmarket commentary, order intake was +30%, suggesting dealers may have destocked more thannecessary.Figure 10 - Construction: Volvo Construction Equipment Volumes.--20,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,00020142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20242025eEuropeSource: Jefferies, Company reportsMining.In Mining there are no str