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美国市场反馈

信息技术 2025-05-26 Jefferies 坚守此念
报告封面

Shunsuke Kuriyama * | Equity Analyst813 6830 3619 | skuriyama@jefferies.com Company Valuation/RisksRound OneValuation: PT of ¥1,500 equates to an FY3/26E PER of 21x.Upside risks include success of catcher machines accelerating SSS of Amusement and success of new content.Downside risks include natural disasters, losses in the overseas business, and failure to pass on cost inflation by raising service price.Ryohin KeikakuOur SOTP-based price target implies 29.8x 12M-forward PER, compared to the sector average of 22x. Risks: geopolitical conflict, potentiallockdown from pandemic, power shortage leading to rising utility costs, and supply chain issues. Cost inflation speeding up or continuing at currentlevels. Unfavorable weather. Inventory buildup and markdowns. Global recession (especially in the US and China) and weaker-than-expected retailconsumption. Domestic apparel deteriorates. Labor shortage. Fluctuations of FX and interest rates of major countries.Sanrio Co LtdWe formulate our PT of ¥8,000 based on 41.4x PER on FY3/26E, equating to 26.7x EV/EBITDA, consistent with the long-term average. We thinkthe +30% ROE and growth potential justifies the premium to its peers. PT based PEG of 1.6x is below the peer median and within the historicalrange. We highlight risks to our investment thesis and valuation as follows: Geopolitical conflict, supply chain issues. Cost inflation speedingup or continuing at current level. IP characters losing popularity and Sanrio characters losing market share. Inventory buildup and markdowns.Global recession (especially in the US and China) and weaker-than-expected retail consumption. Domestic IP market deteriorates. Labor shortage.Fluctuations of FX and interest rates of major countries.Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd.Our ¥2,000 price target is based on forward EV/EBITDA-based SOTP, equating to 8x EV/EBITDA on FY26E, which compares with sector medianof 9x. Risks: Geopolitical conflict, continued lockdown from ongoing and worsening pandemic, power shortage leading to rising utility costs, andsupply chain issues. Cost inflation speeding up or continuing at current levels. Unfavorable weather. Global recession (especially in the US) andweaker-than-expected retail consumption and fuel sales. Disappointing progress on restructuring. Failed post-merger integration of Speedway.Domestic CVS deteriorates. GMS continues to lose share and becomes obsolete. Labor shortage. EC penetrations rise more than expected infood sales. Fluctuations of FX, WTI, and interest rates of major countries.Analyst Certification:I, Shunsuke Kuriyama, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies)and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendationsor views expressed in this research report.Registration of non-US analysts:Shunsuke Kuriyama is employed by Jefferies (Japan) Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate,but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports arepublished at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement.Investment Recommendation Record(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)Recommendation PublishedRecommendation DistributedCompany Specific DisclosuresShunsuke Kuriyama holds a long, equity position in Ryohin Keikaku Co., Ltd. (7453 JP).Explanation of Jefferies RatingsBuy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period.Hold - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period.Underperform - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of minus 10% or less within a 12-month period.Please see important disclosure information on pages 2 - 8 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. May 26, 2025 0:22 A.M.May 26, 2025 0:22 A.M. 2 The expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) for Buy rated securities with an average security price consistently below $10 is 20% or more withi