KBC集团：将资本投入使用

Restricted - External KBC.BR/KBC BBOVERWEIGHTUnchangedEuropean BanksPOSITIVEUnchangedPrice TargetEUR 102.00raised 7% from EUR 95.00Price (23-May-25)EUR 86.26Potential Upside/Downside+18.2%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (EUR mn)36017Shares Outstanding (mn)417.54Free Float (%)60.0452 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)0.5Dividend Yield (%)4.81Return on Equity TTM (%)14.83Current BVPS (EUR)58.82Source: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-BRU52 Week rangeEUR 88.96-62.10Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingEuropean BanksFlora Bocahut+33 (0)1 4458 3131flora.bocahut@barclays.comBBI, ParisNamita Samtani, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 2583namita.samtani@barclays.comBarclays, UKRachel Wilson+44 (0)20 7773 1752rachel.wilson@barclays.comBarclays, UK considering(1)the bank has the right mix into lower rates, with NII expected to grow and c50%of revenues coming from non-NII (Asset Mgmt and Insurance, mainly), and we forecast for KBC asuperior EPS growth in sector context (BARCe 8% underlying EPS CAGR '24-27);(2)beyond thec7% dividend yield per year we forecast, KBC has additional excess capital to put at work, whichwould lead to EPS accretion, with we estimate c€2-2.5bn excess capital to spend by end 2026 ona payout of 65% (€3-3.5bn by end 2026 on a 50% payout); and(3)while many investors considerKBC expensive because trading at a double digit P/E, we see c20% upside to just below 12x P/E2026E at our €102 target price.New valuation methodology, OW reiterated, PT to €102:We continue to value KBC using theaverage between an SOTP and DDM, both on 2027E, and add back the excess capital (at 25%discount). However, we've made two changes to our assumptions:(1)we now use a CoE of10.8% (vs. 11.7% before) and(2)we now consider the excess capital over the new CET1minimum target of 13% (vs. 15% before). Post the changes to our forecasts we get to a new PTof €102 (vs. €95 before), and reiterate our OW rating given c.18% upside potential. On ourforecasts, KBC trades at 9.9x P/E and 1.43x P/TBV for c15% ROTE (all 2026E). See Figure 4.KBC.BR: Financial and Valuation Metrics EPS (EUR)FY Dec20232024202520262027EPS7.67A7.56A7.94E8.72E9.63EPrevious EPS7.67A7.56A7.83E8.73E9.65EConsensus EPS8.04A8.33A8.04E8.88E9.81EP/E11.311.410.99.99.0Consensus numbers are from Bloomberg received on 26-May-2025; 12:50 GMTSource: Barclays Research2 FIGURE 1. Summary of our estimate changes on KBC Group post 1Q25 resultsSource: Barclays Research estimatesFIGURE 2. Our forecasts on KBC (post 1Q25) vs. latest consensus (pre 1Q25, company-compiled)KBC Group€ million2025E2026E2027ENet interest income5,7876,2856,662Insurance revenues before reinsurance3,1603,3813,616Dividend income545555Net Result from FI at FVTPL & IFIE-75-40-40Net fee and commission income2,7072,8853,040Net other income217200200TOTAL INCOME11,85012,76513,534Operating expenses (excl. directly attr. from insurance)-4,701-4,944-5,068Total Opex without banking and insurance tax-4,579-4,827-4,944Total banking and insurance tax-679-714-761Minus: Opex allocated to insurance service expenses557596638Insurance service expenses before reinsurance (ISE)-2,528-2,672-2,825Net result from reinsurance contracts held-84-100-100Co. Definition of Opex-4,978-5,248-5,389PPP4,5375,0495,541Impairment-348-447-466Share in results of associated companies-9-12-12PROFIT BEFORE TAX4,1804,5905,063Income tax expense-912-995-1,108PROFIT AFTER TAX3,2683,5953,955Minority interests0-10NET RESULT - GROUP SHARE3,2683,5943,955EPS (earnings per share)7.948.729.63DPS (dividend per share)5.175.616.12Potential share buy-back decided for the accounting year---Pay-out ratio (in %)66%66%65%CET1 ratio (fully-loaded ex output floor)14.6%14.5%14.9%RWA (fully-loaded ex output floor)128,988136,907142,904BarclaysSource: Barclays Research estimates, company data (consensus as collected by company ahead of 1Q25 results)26 May 2025 FIGURE 3. Comparing our forecasts (post 1Q25) to latest consensus (pre 1Q25) and company targetsSource: Barclays Research estimates, company data (consensus as collected by company ahead of 1Q25 results)FIGURE 4. Our valuation of KBC GroupKBC - Sum of the partsNet profitAlloc. CapitalRoACCoEgP/TBVP/ENet ValueBased on 2027E(EURm)(EURbn)(%)(%)(%)(x)(x)(EURbn)BU Belgium2,36710.423%10.0%1.0%2.4x10.6x25.1BU Czech Republic1,0342.838%11.0%2.0%3.9x10.5x10.9BU International Markets8853.525%13.0%2.0%2.1x8.4x7.4Group Centre & Other(467)8.6nmnmnmnm10.1x(4.7)Total3,81925.215.2%10.8%1.4%1.54x10.1x38.7Capital surplus/(deficit)2.1Total40.7Present Value31.2PV of cumulative dividends5.5Fair value36.7Fair value (12m forward)15.2%9.9%1.4%1.61x10.6x40.6Shares2027ENumber of shares (m)397Discounting periodToday's date26/05/2025SOTP date31/12/2027Years to discount2.60Discounting factor0.77KBC - Dividend Discount Model2025E2026E2027EDPS5.175.616.12Payment date15/05/202615/05/202715/05/2028Years to discount0.971.972.97Discounting factor0.910.820.74Value4.684.584.51RoTE15.2%g1.4%CoE10.8%Implied fair P/TBV1.46xTBVps66.4Terminal Valu