阿肖克莱兰（AL）：实现良好利润率

410,92952,764.835,184.0 2026E2027E2028E447,567487,72457,365.762,480.238,735.743,212.611.9813.1914.72 Nitij Mangal * | Equity Analyst91 22 4224 6124 | nmangal@jefferies.comSagar Sahu, CFA * | Equity Associate+91 22 4224 6119 | ssahu@jefferies.comKevin Verghese * | Equity Associate+91 22 4224 6303 | kverghese@jefferies.comSource: Bloomberg, Jefferies The Long View: Ashok LeylandInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•India's truck demand has moderated after two strong years.•Stock likely to remain range-bound until demand visibility improves.Base Case,INR230, -4%•Ashok Leyland's total volumes to rise4%/7%/7% in FY26E/27E/28E.•EBITDA margin to stay range bound at 12.8%in FY26-28E.•EPS rising to Rs12.0/Rs13.2/Rs14.7 inFY26E/27E/28E.•Price target of 230 based on 4.6x FY27E P/B.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1)Life-cycle emissions -With rising focus on climate change and cutting GHGgases, we believe life-cycle vehicle emissions are a key ESG metric for Ashok.2)Product safety -India consumers are increasingly conscious about safety aspect of vehicles, and the government hasintroduced multiple regulations.3)Other factors include labor and governance, waste management,and material efficiency & recycling.Company Target(s): 1)Ashok is looking to enhance energy efficiency and increase share of renewableenergy in its energy mix.2)The company aspires to become water-neutral and carbon-neutral.3)Ashok plans to achieve zero waste to landfill and eliminate wood waste generation.Qs to Mgmt: 1)What are the various initiatives taken by the company towards carbon footprintreduction? What is the timeline to achieve net carbon neutrality and water neutrality?2)What arethe various metrics that the company looks at to track its progress on ESG?3)What are the variousinitiatives taken by the company to reduce life-cycle emissions of its commercial vehicles?ESG Sector Integration: Indian AutosPlease see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,INR265, +11%•Ashok Leyland's total volumes to rise12%/15%/15% in FY26E/27E/28E.•FY26-28E EBITDA margin ~100bp higher vsbase case.•EPS rising to Rs14.0/Rs16.5/Rs19.6 inFY26E/27E/28E.•Price target of Rs265 based on 5x FY27E P/B. Downside Scenario,INR210, -12%•Ashok's total volumes to rise at -1%/2%/2% inFY26E/27E/28E.•FY26-28E EBITDA margin ~150bp lower vsbase case.•EPS of Rs9.9/Rs10.4/11.2 in FY26E/27E/28E.•Price target of Rs210 based on 4.4x FY27E P/B.Catalysts•Positive: Revival in truck demand and furthermargin expansion.•Negative: Continued weakness in Indian truckdemand. 2 Exhibit 3 - Ashok Leyland: 4QFY25 results summary.(in Rs mn)Total operating incomeRaw Material consumedPurchase of stock-in-tradeChange in stockStaff CostOther ExpenditureTotal operating costsEbitdaDepreciationEbitFinancial incomeFinance costsPBT before exceptional itemsExceptional gains/(losses)PBT after exceptional itemsTax expenseReported PATRecurring PATKey ratiosVolumes (units)Net realizations (Rs K/vehicle)Gross profit /vehicle (Rs K)EBITDA/vehicle (Rs K)EBIT/vehicle (Rs K)Gross margins (%)Staff costs/sales (%)Other expenses/sales (%)EBITDA margin (%)EBIT margin (%)PAT margin (%)Source: Company data, JefferiesExhibit 4 - 4Q wholesales rose 5% YoY.010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,0001QFY202QFY203QFY204QFY201QFY212QFY21Volumes (units)Source: Company data, Jefferies. Note: 1QFY22 comparison is vs 1QFY20Exhibit 6 - Share of buses in AL's volumes up QoQ.20161414733232027121112181933424234730204060801001QFY202QFY203QFY204QFY20Product mix (%)Source: Company data, CMIE, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Source: Company data, Jefferies76 7 6 6 7877 7434239404242981213109123834363835331QFY242QFY243QFY244QFY241QFY252QFY253QFY254QFY25LCVsExports Exhibit 7 - 4Q gross margins expanded 90bp QoQ.3031262936292605101520253035401QFY202QFY203QFY204QFY201QFY212QFY21Source: Company data, JefferiesExhibit 9 - 4Q EBITDA margin expanded 90bp YoY to 15%.9.45.85.64.8(51.2)2.85.3(10)(5)051015201QFY202QFY203QFY204QFY201QFY212QFY21Source: Company data, JefferiesExhibit 11 - Staff costs/sales down 90bp QoQ.8.811.06.810.754.413.29.4024681012141QFY202QFY203QFY204QFY201QFY212QFY213QFY21Source: Company data, JefferiesExhibit 13 - Expect modest truck industry growth in coming years.9(26)(27)210100200300400FY12FY13FY14M&HCV trucks volumes (K units)Source: CMIE, Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Source: Company data, Jefferies4QFY25Exhibit 10 - EBITDA/vehicle up 7% YoY.136797272(874)41(100)01002003004001QFY202QFY203QFY204QFY201QFY212QFY21Source: Company data, Jefferies4QFY25Exhibit 12 - 4Q other expenses/sale