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长安汽车A（000625 CH）电动汽车推进低于计划；深蓝接近盈亏平衡

2025-05-22 汇丰银行高杨

Changan Automobile's EV scaling is behind plan, with Deepal approaching breakeven and two brands falling short of volume guidance. Deepal sold 80,677 units in 4M25 (16% of the 500k full-year target), while Nevo delivered 42,844 units in 4M25 (15% of the 280k full-year target). Deepal's 69% y-o-y growth in 4M25 requires a sharp ramp-up to ~52k monthly sales to hit the 2025 target, which is ambitious given the low visibility after the old model changeover and limited new product rollout. Nevo's momentum remains softer, tracking a 1% y-o-y decrease in 4M25. While three new models are due to be launched in 2025, their contribution to full-year volumes is likely to be constrained by timing.

JV brands remain a structural headwind. The JV brand, Avatar, booked a 2024 net loss of RMB-4.0bn, vs an RMB-3.7bn net loss in 2023, attributable to intensive R&D investment and distribution network expansion. With only one new model this year and low visibility on next year’s sales volume, the investment loss from Avatar is expected to be higher than forecast, at RMB-3.3bn in 2025e and RMB-2.1bn in 2026e. Additionally, Changan Ford and Mazda’s volumes continue to face structural pressure amid slow electrification and ageing product cycles.

Earnings revisions. The 2025 and 2026 net profit estimates are lowered by 7% and 0.4%, respectively, mainly due to lower-than-expected y-t-d run-rates of the Deepal and Nevo brands, lower 2025 and 2026 revenue estimates, and worse economies of scale. This is partly offset by higher 2025-26 investment income from associates. The 2025-27e earnings CAGR is estimated at 22.8%, below Wind consensus, reflecting conservative views on sales volume growth and GPM.

Maintain Hold, lower TP to RMB14.20. The stock is valued using a PEG of 1x, based on the historical trading range of local brands during their growth phase. The target PE is 22.8x, applying to the 2025 EPS estimate of RMB0.62, lowering the TP to RMB14.20. The target price implies c13% upside from current levels. The Hold rating is maintained as the company’s EV product cycle might need more evidence to prove its competitiveness.

Key upside risks: better-than-expected volume ramp-up of key EV new models, higher-than-expected monthly volume growth in ICE brands, higher-than-expected volume growth in joint venture brands, higher-than-expected sales volume growth in the overseas market, and better-than-expected autonomous driving customer traction.

Key downside risks: weaker-than-expected volume ramp-up of EV new brands, weaker-than-expected volume growth in joint venture brands, weaker-than-expected pricing, and sales volume and earnings decrease in the Eastern European market.

Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities LimitedView HSBCQianhai Securitiesat:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBC Global Research PodcastsTARGET PRICE(CNY)14.20SHARE PRICE(CNY)12.59(as of20 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(CNYm)Market cap (USDm)3m ADTV (USDm)FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(CNY)Year toHSBC QH EPSHSBC QH EPS prevChange (%)Consensus EPSPE (x)Dividend yield (%)EV/EBITDA (x)ROE (%)52-WEEK PRICE(CNY)Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC Qianhai Securities estimatesMichel Liu* (Reg. No. S1700524090001)Analyst, China AutosHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedmichel.m.liu@hsbcqh.com.cn+8610 5765 2351Elaine Chen* (Reg. No. S1700524030001)Analyst, China AutosHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedelaine.chen@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 010 5795 2364* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsChina05/24Target price: 14.20 ◆◆◆ Listen to our insightsFind out moreMAINTAIN HOLDPREVIOUS TARGET(CNY)15.40UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+12.8%107,478Free float14,887BBG115RIC12/2024a12/2025e0.740.620.550.6733.9-7.20.560.6917.020.32.32.06.84.09.97.811/24High: 15.96 Low: 11.52 Current: 12.59 93%000625 CH000625.SZ12/2026e12/2027e0.820.940.83na-0.4na0.831.0115.313.42.63.02.51.79.910.510.0013.5017.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eProfit & loss summary(CNYm)Revenue159,733188,059216,529227,706EBITDA6,8759,77912,34213,002Depreciation & amortisation-5,806-5,604-5,277-5,179Operating profit/EBIT1,0694,1757,0657,823Net interest934611490574PBT6,7587,28610,47911,844HSBC QianhaiPBT6,7587,28610,47911,844Taxation-653-489-683-742Net profit7,3216,1628,1759,297HSBC Qianhainet profit7,3216,1628,1759,297Cash flow summary(CNYm)Cash flow from operations4,84913,05415,14215,527Capex-4,868-2,257-2,165-2,277Cash flow from investment-4,313-2,257-2,165-2,277Dividends-2,925-2,461-3,266-3,714Change in net debt663-7,201-8,370-7,595FCF equity-1,59410,79712,97613,250Balance sheet summary(CNYm)Intangible fixed assets18,58316,62614,79712,955Tangible fixed assets23,64322,25220,97019,910Current assets136,369155,201175,195187,397Cash & others64,18271,38379,75387,348Total assets208,168224,932243,447254,329Operating liabilities128,012141,112155,242161,124Gross debt1,0761,0761,0761,076Net debt-63,106-70,307-78,677-86,272Shareholders' funds76,57680,44685,35590,938Invested capital-13,600-18,415-24,033-28,210Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue5.617.715.15.2EBITDA-35.142.226.25.3Operating profit-79.8290.769.210.7PBT-36.27.843.813.0HSBC QianhaiEPS-35.3-15.832.713.7Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)-13.9-11.7-10.2-8.7ROIC-29.5-39.0-41.6-36.7ROE9.97.89.910.5ROA3.23.24.34.5EBITDA margin4.35.25.75.7Operating profit margin0.72.23.33.4EBITDA/net interest (x)Net debt/equity-79.8-85.0-90.3-93.6Netdebt/EBITDA (x)-9.2-7.2-6.4-6.6CF from operations/net debtPer share data(CNY)EPS Rep (diluted)0.740.620.820.94HSBC QianhaiEPS (diluted)0.740.620.820.94DPS0.290.250.330.37Book value7.728.118.619.17Valuation dataYear toEV/salesEV/EBITDAEV/ICPE*PBFCF yield (%)Dividend yield (%)* Based onHSBC QianhaiEPS (diluted)ESGmetricsEnvironmental IndicatorsGHG emission intensityEnergy intensityCO2reduction policySocial IndicatorsEmployee costs as % of revenuesEmployee turnover (%)Diversity policySource: Company data,HSBC QianhaiSecurities*GHG intensity and energy intensity are measuredin kg and kWhrespectivelyagainst revenuein USD ‘000sIssuer informationShare price(CNY)Target price(CNY)RIC(Equity)Bloomberg (Equity)Market cap(USDm)Price relativeSource: HSBCQianhai SecuritiesNote:Priced at close of 20 May 2025Financials & valuation:Changan Automobile A Earnings review4Q24 and 1Q25earningsOn 10 April, Changan reported4Q24 earnings of RMB3.7bn,higher than our estimates,mainlyon better-than-expected sales volume growth, investment income from associatesand non-recurring gainson asset disposal of RMB2.5bn.Thiswaspartly offset byalower-than-expectedGPM of 14.9% (vs our estimate of 15.4%(excluding the D&A)) inthefullyear 2024 due toheighteningpricing pressure inChina’spassenger car space.On 25 April, Changan reported1Q25 earnings of RMB1.4bn, up 17% y-o-y, largely in line with our expectation. To breakitdown, whilethesales volume growthcame inbelow our expectation,finance incomewasbookedatRMB1.1bn, which weestimateis again on FX and interest income.Exhibit1. Changan passenger carEV penetration continues to ramp upSource:CPCA, HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesNote: wholesales volumeExhibit2. Deepal booked 69% y-o-y salesvolume growth in 4M25, butisstill fallingshort of company guidance/ourexpectationSource:CPCA, HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesNote: wholesales volume35%37%-50,000100,000150,000200,000250,000JanFeb2024 Changan overall PC sales volume (units)2024 Changan PC EV penetration (%)77%65%60%70%-5,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000JanFebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSepOctNovDec2024 sales volume (units)2025 sales volume (units)2025 sales volume y-o-y growth (%) 42%Mar 3Exhibit3.Nevobookeda1% y-o-y salesvolum

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