麦克斯医疗：床位扩张热潮持续，维持持有评级

Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must beread with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Operationally in-line 4Q results; revenue growth led by pick-upin newer hospitals,while existing units saw steady growthMax continues its bed-expansion spree tosustain growth,though we see limited scope for valuation re-rating from hereMaintain Hold;raise TP to INR1,055 (from INR1,010)4QFY25 review: Gross network revenueofINR24.3bn (+26.8% y-o-y, +2% q-o-q)washelped by new hospitals (Dwarka, Lucknow, Nagpur,andNoida).LFLrevenuegrew12.4% y-o-y.Network operating EBITDAofINR6.3bn grew25.6% y-o-y(+13.2% y-o-yLFL).Operating EBITDA margin of 27.2% fell78bps y-o-y,mainly oncosts on related to new hospitals.New HospitalrevenuewasINR3.5bn (c15% ofnetwork revenue) and EBITDAwasINR660m (margin of 18.6%). All four newhospitals continue to seeimprovementsin profitability.Revenue from internationalpatients grew 28% y-o-y to INR2bn (c9% of hospital revenue).Reported PAT ofINR3.8bngrew 17.5% y-o-y.Capacity expansion to sustaingrowth:Max continues with its bed expansionspree as most ofits existing hospitals are operating at 70%occupancy orabove.During 4Q, it entered an agreementto set upa200-bed hospital in Pithampura, Delhi(completion expected in thenext 3-4 years). In addition, it bought ac1-acrelandparcel next to its existing hospital in Vaishali,where it plansa140-bedbrownfieldexpansion,taking total bed count to 527beds inthenext 30months.Maxlooks tocommence three new brownfield towers in Nanavati (268 beds), Mohali (155 beds),and Smart Saket (400 beds) hospitals overthenext3months.Italsoaims to expandcapacity at Lucknow and Gurugram Sector 56 in FY26 (total bed additionsof c1,500in FY26). SeeExhibit3.Overall, Max plans additionof c4,000 bedinFY26-28e.Retain Hold;raiseTP to INR1,055:Maxhas abest-in-class KPI profile and strongexecution record.Ithas beenabletoquicklyturnaround new hospitals (recentlytheDwarkaunit)by servinga tactful mixofCTI (cash, TPA,and international) andscheme patients.In view ofthefast ramp-up of newer units, consistent additionofbedis critical to sustain its revenue growth and,thus, it has no room for executionslippage. In our view, its current share price reflects bed-expansion led growth andwe see limited room for re-rating as evolving mix between new and matured bedsover 3-4 years will likely result inalimited pick-up in KPIs such as ARPOBandpayorprofile.Post4QFY25 results, we adjust our FY26-27eestimates,mainly toupdatethegrowth trajectory for new units (mainly Noida, Dwarka,Lucknow,and Nagpur).Consequently, we lower our FY26e proforma EPS estimate by1.1%andincreaseourFY27eestimate 3.1%. Our revised TP implies 7.6%downsideand we maintain ourHold ratingaswe believe Max can deliver consistent growth in profitability of newunits–mainly Noida, Lucknow,and Dwarka.Max Healthcare(MAXHEALT IN)Hold:Bed-expansion spree continues ◆◆◆ 76%MAXHEALTMAXE.NS03/2028e20.4855.835.214.8690.00995.001300.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027e03/2028eProfit & loss summary(INRm)Revenue70,28583,818102,120119,604EBITDA18,48822,18527,61132,081Depreciation & amortisation-3,594-4,861-5,106Operating profit/EBIT14,89417,32422,50526,101Net interest-478-200-50PBT14,80017,51922,86326,471HSBC PBT14,80017,51922,86326,471Taxation-3,485-4,380-5,716Net profit11,31513,13917,14719,853HSBC net profit11,31513,13917,14719,853Cash flow summary(INRm)Cash flow fromoperations13,55615,54919,89025,666Capex-15,910-20,353-14,085-22,784Cash flow from investment-16,317-20,353-14,085-22,784Dividends-1,45600Change in net debt21,2654,322-5,195FCF equity-2,354-4,8045,805Balance sheet summary(INRm)Intangible fixed assets60,35359,84859,34458,839Tangible fixed assets63,62479,62089,103106,412Current assets15,92610,75818,34221,622Cash & others6,8191,5975,892Total assets152,145162,468179,031199,115Operating liabilities25,19723,28123,59724,728Gross debt29,86428,96428,06427,164Net debt23,04527,36722,17219,927Shareholders' funds93,809106,948124,095143,948Invested capital112,862130,323142,275159,884Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027e03/2028eY-o-y % changeRevenue30.019.321.8EBITDA23.920.024.5Operating profit19.416.329.9PBT8.418.430.5HSBC EPS7.016.130.5Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)0.70.70.7ROIC12.311.112.4ROE12.713.114.8ROA9.29.010.6EBITDA margin26.326.527.0Operating profit margin21.220.722.0EBITDA/net interest (x)38.7110.9552.2Netdebt/equity24.625.617.9Net debt/EBITDA (x)1.21.20.8CF from operations/net debt58.856.889.7Per share data(INR)EPS Rep (diluted)11.6713.5517.68HSBC EPS (diluted)11.6713.5517.68DPS0.000.000.00Book value96.75110.30127.99148.461F&V is based on consolidated financials,which exclude partnered healthcarefacilities (PHFs); our discussion and valuation elsewhere are based onproforma financialsthatinclude PHFsFinancials & valuation1:Max Healthcare Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 21 May 2025 Key highlights from 4QFY25 ea