4月份法国银行Livret A监管储蓄资金流出

Joseph Dickerson * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8309 | jdickerson@jefferies.comTheo Massing * | Equity Associate+33 1 8665 6306 | tmassing@jefferies.comSource: Jefferies, Company data, Visible Alpha cons. Since the start of the year, households have been looking at products with better yields, such aslife insurance, which has started the year off with a bang. Also note that c.13% of Livret A accountshave reached the limit of 22,950 euros & households are forced to look at other savings solutions.We expect positive momentum in 2025-2026 for insurance businesses in France due to the inverserelationship between the Livret A rate & Life insurance inflows (Exhibit 10).Please see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 3 - Monthly inflows in regulated savings accounts - Livret A, LEP & LDDS(EURbn).754212465023-4-202468101214Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Source: Jefferies, Caisse des dépôtsExhibit 5 - Current Livret A rate vs theoretical rate.0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%Jan-10Nov-10Sep-11Jul-12May-13Livret A rateSource: Jefferies, INSEE, ECBExhibit 7 - Livret A & LDDS outstandings since 2008 (EURbn).0100200300400500600700LA+LDDS (EURbn)Source: Jefferies, Caisse des dépôtsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 9 - Monthly flows LA + LDDS (EURbn).(6.0)(4.0)(2.0)0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0Janin EURbnSource: Jefferies, Caisse des dépôtsExhibit 10 - Life insurance net inflows (EURbn) vs Livret A rate (%) - inverse correlation of c.-70% over 2021-23.(3.0)(2.0)(1.0)0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.0Sep-21Source: Jefferies, FFAPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 11 - Main characteristics of French regulated saving accounts.Savings SchemeLivret ALDDLEP (Livret d'épargne populaire)Livret JeuneSource: Jefferies, Banque de France, Caisse des dépôts, FBFPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company Valuation/RisksBNP Paribas SAWe value BNPP via a SOTP-based valuation, using 2026E forecasts and applying specific CoE and growth rates for each division to reflect the differentgrowth and profitability outlook across divisions. We then add the capital surplus (or remove the capital deficit), the cumulative dividends and discountback to 12 months forward.The main downside risks are: macro risk (lower GDP growth than expected, esp. in France, Italy, Belgium, USA) and its consequence for revenues(lower level of activity) and provisions (deteriorating asset quality), regulatory risk (higher minimum capital requirement, regulatory headwinds), lowerrates than expected, slower loan growth than expected, tougher capital markets than expected (would hurt FICC and Equities revenues, but alsoAdvisory/ECM/DCM revenues as well as Asset & Wealth Management and Insurance revenues), litigation risk, M&A risk.Crédit Agricole S.A.We value CASA on an SOTP-based valuation, using 2026 forecasts and applying specific CoE and growth rates for each division to reflect the differentgrowth & profitability outlook across divisions. We then add the capital surplus (or remove the capital deficit), the cumulative dividends and discountback to 12 months forward.The main upside risks are macro risk (higher GDP growth than expected, especially in France & Italy) and its consequence for revenues (higher level ofactivity) and provisions (improving asset quality), looser regulatory risk (lower minimum capital requirement, regulatory tailwinds), higher rates thanexpected, faster loan growth than expected, stronger capital markets than expected (would help FICC & Asset Management revenues), and bettercost control than expected.The main downside risks are macro risk (lower GDP growth than expected, especially in France & Italy) and its consequence for revenues (lower levelof activity) and provisions (deteriorating asset quality), regulatory risk (higher minimum capital requirement, regulatory headwinds), lower rates thanexpected, slower loan growth than expected, tougher capital markets than expected (would hurt FICC & Asset Management revenues), higher lossesthan expected from Russian offshore exposure, litigation risk, and M&A risk.Société Générale SAWe value SocGen via a SOTP-based valuation, using 2026E forecasts and applying specific CoE and growth rates for each division to reflect thedifferent growth & profitability outlook across divisions.The main upside risks are macro risk (higher GDP growth than expected, esp. in France) and its consequence for revenues (higher level of activity) andprovisions (improving asset quality), r