益百利有机增长预期仍然过高

RatingUnderperformPrice TargetEXPN.LNAdjusted EPSF25AEXPN.LN (USD)1.56OLD--Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Experian: Organic expectations remain too highWe continue to believe that the market should be positioned at the low end of the 6-8%organic growth range and remain concerned about US credit quality, overlapping growthdrivers with peers and relative contribution from new products. Reiterate Underperform.We expect that the relative contribution to organic growth from new products andservices may have peaked.Scaling and recently introduced products grew at c20% inFY25, which meant of the 6.5% organic in FY25 they accounted for two thirds (c$300m)with the remainder of the group growing at 2-3%. The basis of classification appears to havechanged but growth in new products was $250-260m per annum in FY22 + FY23.Increasingly overlapping growth drivers.There are a number of areas which areimportant strategic growth drivers for the group that now overlap with key peers1) Brazil isbeing targeted more intensively by Equifax, 2) Verification represents a lot of white spacefor Experian but generally uses nonproprietary, non-exclusive data sets which may haveimplication for long term returns, and 3) Consumer platforms are target strategies for Equifaxand TransUnion, although they are some way behind Experian.FICO’s shares have fallen c20% this weekafter Bill Pulte (director of the Federal HousingFinance Agency) highlighted concerns “I don’t like some things I’ve heard in terms of the cost”regarding the pricing increases seen from 2023 to date. While any walking back or stalling inprices would hurt growth in the small (3% of group sales) mortgage profiles business, there ispotentially upside if VantageScore gains traction. Generally, however, regulatory adjustmentsmore widely remain a risk.We downgrade EPS by 5-7% and sit 4-5% below consensus due to lower organicgrowth expectations.We reiterate our (sole) Underperform call based on continuedsoftening organic growth. We value the shares on 25x FY26e P/E (10 year average).Investment ImplicationsGiven expectations of on-going organic growth downgrades we rate the sharesUnderperform.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 22 May 2025 05:00 UTC Completion Date: 21 May 2025 18:00 UTC 3,050.00 GBpF27E1.82--FinancialsReported EPSBV/Share (M) F26E1.681.77F25AF26EF27ECAGR156.89169.08183.20--0.000.00----Close DateEDMFYEDiv YieldEV (GBp) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)EDM (%)Relative (%)4400p4200p4000p3800p3600p3400p3200p3000p05/24 DETAILSUNDERPERFORM PREDICATED ON 4 KEY REASONSWe expect that the relative contribution to organic growth from new products and services has peaked.Scaling andrecently introduced products grew at c20% in FY25 with the remainder of the group growing at 2-3%. We think the absolutecontribution of these new services in revenue terms has peaked at $250-300m.Increasingly overlapping growth drivers.1) Brazil is being targeted more intensively by Equifax, 2) Verification represents alot of white space for Experian but generally uses nonproprietary, non-exclusive data sets which may have implication for longterm returns, and 3) Consumer platforms are target strategies for Equifax and TransUnion although some way behind Experian.Concerns with US consumers and the credit cycle.Delinquency rates (90+ days) for autos and credit cards continues toincrease, savings rates have fallen, lending looks to have modestly tightened and lower quality mortgage origination is growingin proportion.Regulatory risk.FICO shares have fallen c20% this week on concerns about regulatory scrutiny over their price increases.This could become a positive for Experian as their VantageScore could take share but generally we view regulatory issues as asource of downside risk.DRIVING ORGANIC GROWTH AND EPS ESTIMATES 4% BELOW AVG. CONSENSUS IN FY26EOur EPS estimates are 4-5% below Experian’s compiled consensus estimates, driven by our organic growth estimate of 6.7%(-40bps to -70bps vs cons.). Our outlook is influenced by increasing concerns regarding U.S. consumer behavior and the creditcycle, as well as overlapping growth drivers. Additionally, we believe that revenue contribution from the introduction of newproducts and services may have peaked.EXHIBIT 1:Bernstein vs Average Company CompiledConsensus in 2026$m, %Benchmark RevenueOrganic Revenue (%)Benchmark EBITAEBITA margin, %Benchmark EPS ($c)DPS ($c)Source: Experian, Bernstein analysis and estimates3,050P PTWe reiterate our (sole) Underperform call based on continued softening organic growth. We value the shares on 25x FY26e P/Ewhich drives a 3,050p PT.EUROPEAN BUSINESS SERVICES ConsensusBernsteinDiff.FY 2026EFY 2026E%8,2218,106-1.4%7.4%6.7%-0.7 pp2,3392,278-2.6%28.5%28.1%-0.3 pp175.1167.6-4.3%68.869.30.8% EXHIBIT 2:Bernstein vs House Broker Average CompanyCom