NPM上升，半真空泵进口替代持续推进

NPMRose, Import Substitution inSemi Vacuum Pumps Continued Rating (Maintain):BUYTarget price (RMB):20.88 Huatai Research Annual Results Review 18 May 2025│China (Mainland) Specialty Machinery AnalystNI ZhengyangSAC No. S0570522100004SFC No. BTM566nizhengyang@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228 Hanbell Precise Machinery (Hanbell) posted 2024 revenue/attributable net profit(NP)/recurring NP of RMB3,674/863/821mn (-4.62/-0.28/-2.24% yoy), with 4Q24revenue/attributable NP of RMB818/141mn (-13.57/-23.74% yoy,-19.96/-47.84%qoq). The 2024 attributable NP missed our prior estimate of RMB966mn, which webelieve was primarily due to a profit decline in refrigeration compressors andweakeningdemand for PV vacuum pumps amid property market adjustment.Nevertheless, looking ahead, we expect the compressor segment to benefit fromgrowth in cold-chain logistics, heat pump markets, and equipment renewal needs,whilesemiconductorvacuumpumpsoffersubstantialpotentialforimportsubstitution. Maintain BUY. Key data GPM slid in 2024, effective cost control supported NPM expansionFor 2024, Hanbell recorded a gross profit margin (GPM) of 38.31%, down 2.01pp yoy, mainly due to a price war triggered by S/D imbalance in the PV sector, in ourview. Net profit margin (NPM) gained 1.02pp yoy to 23.53%. For 2024, overallexpense ratio was 11.34% (-3.08pp yoy), with administrative/sales/R&D expenseratios at 4.03/3.84/4.95% (+0.19/-0.88/-0.76pp yoy). Financial expense ratio fell to-1.48% (vs 0.05% in 2023), as forex gains increased yoy. Despite a subdued GPM,Hanbell's NPM improved yoy due to effective cost control. Cold-chain logistics/equipment renewal to drive compressor growth1)Compressors:Thecommercialcentralair-conditioning(AC)marketfaced headwinds in 2024 amid property sector adjustment. However, according to theChina Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, cold-chain logistics demand reached365mn tonnes in 2024, up 4.3% yoy, reflecting steady progress in the sector. Webelieve this trend could support stable growth in refrigeration compressor demand.In addition, China has a substantial stock of air compressors, and the potentialdemand for upgrading aging equipment driven by policy initiatives ispoised tostimulate growth in demand for high-efficiency, energy-saving compressors, in ourview. 2) Vacuum pumps: PV vacuum pump demand remained under pressure dueto yoy decreases in capacity additions, operating rates, and planned projectvolumes in the PV industry. For semiconductor vacuum pumps, as the industrymoves toward greater self-sufficiency, we see import substitution as an inevitabletrend. In this regard, Hanbell is proactively expanding its marketing efforts in thedomestic semiconductor sector and has been approved by several 8-inch and12-inch semiconductor foundries, packaging/testing houses, and semiconductorequipment manufacturers. Batch deliveries have already begun. Source:Wind Earningsforecast andvaluationWeestimate2025/2026/2027attribut ableNPatRMB931/1,032/1,138mn(previous: RMB1,044/1,166mn for 2025/2026, cut by 10.8/11.5%), mainly to factorin the greater-than-we-expected pressure on commercial AC and PV vacuumpumpsegments,aswellastheearlystageofcompressorrenewalcycle.Considering Hanbell's leading position in domestic semiconductor vacuum pumpswith potentially consistent import substitution and improving NPM, we value thestock 12x 2025E PE (unchanged), above its peers' average of 10.31x on iFindconsensus, for our target price of RMB20.88 (previous: RMB23.4). Maintain BUY. Risks: raw material price fluctuations; delayed vacuum pump delivery; weakerdownstream demand than we expect. Source:Wind, Huatai Research Source:Wind, Huatai Research Full financials Disclaimers Analyst CertificationI/We, NI Zhengyang, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analy st(s)about thesubject securities or issuers; and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this report. General Disclaimers and DisclosuresThis researchreport has been prepared by Huatai Financial Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited (hereinafter referred to as “HFHL”).The information herein is strictly confidential to the recipient. This report is intended for HFHL, its clients and associatedcompanies. Any other person shall not be deemed a client of the Company merely from his or her receipt of this report. This report is based on information deemed reliable and publicly available by HFHL, but HFHL and its associated company(ies)(collectively, hereinafter“Huatai”)makes no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. The opinions, assessments and projections contained herein only reflect the views and judgments at the issuance date. Huataimay issue research reports that contain inconsistent views, assessments and projections with those set out herein at differenttimes. The prices, values and