通过竞争促进人工智能创新

Executive Summary In the years ahead, increasingly advancedartificial intelligencesystems are expectedto reshape the global economic and national security landscape.Maintaining long-termU.S. leadership in AI will require policymakers to foster a diversified, contestable, andcompetitive market for commercial AI systems. Competitive markets are a key driver ofinnovation, incentivizing incumbent firms to continuouslyimprove their offerings andencouragingstartups to bring disruptive products to the market.In addition togalvanizing innovation, promoting competition among AI developers would preventthe U.S. AI industry from becoming a digital monoculture and make the country moreresilient against economic disruptions, technological surprises, and other nationalsecurity risks. As it stands today, however, the commercial AI industry seems poised to become lesscompetitive over time. The organization of the AI supply chain, the economics of AIdevelopment, and the industry’s prevailing “bigger-is-better” paradigm give incumbenttechnology companies a clear advantage in the production of AI systems. These firmshave both the means and motivation to use their market power to stifle competition inthe AI sector. By leveraging their control over computing infrastructure, training data,foundation models, and product distribution channels, incumbents can effectively pickwinners and losers in the AI market, potentially preventing disruptive upstarts andtheir inventions from reaching the market. If left unchecked, this behavior couldundermine the long-term innovation capacity and resiliency of the U.S. AI ecosystem. Though the commercial AI sector is still relatively young, the organization of themarket is beginning to solidify. As such, it is appropriate for policymakers to beginpursuing targeted measures to foster competition within the AI ecosystem. Waiting toolong to take action risks entrenching current competitive dynamics, allowing largetechnology incumbents to further extend their market power across the AI industry andpotentially stifle domestic innovation. Such inaction could leave the United States at along-term disadvantage against competitors like China, who have a strong incentive topursue disruptive innovations that counteract U.S.export controls and otherefforts tolimit their AI capabilities. This report proposes three broad goals that near-term policyaction could target to promote lasting competition and innovation in the AI market,along with specific policy levers for government leaders to consider. These goalsinclude: 1) increasing competition among compute providers;2) leveling the playingfield in the production ofAI models and applications; and 3) promoting opendistribution channels for AI products. Table of Contents Executive Summary................................................................................................................................1Introduction...............................................................................................................................................3Competition, Innovation, and AI.........................................................................................................5Promoting Competitive AI Innovation..........................................................................................7Competitive Markets and National Security..............................................................................9Understanding the AI Market...........................................................................................................12The AI Supply Chain.......................................................................................................................12Nothing Gold Can Stay: OpenAI and the Economics of AI Development.....................16AI Market Powers............................................................................................................................20Chokepoint1: Computing Resources...................................................................................21Chokepoint2: Data Access......................................................................................................23Chokepoint3: Model Access...................................................................................................24Chokepoint4: Product Distribution.......................................................................................25Key Takeaways.................................................................................................................................27Policy Goals for Promoting Competitive AI Innovation...........................................................29Policy Goal 1: Increase Competition Among Compute Providers....................................29Policy Goal 2: Level the Playing Field in the Production ofAI Models and Applications.........................................................................................................3