哈夫尼亚（HAFN）：业绩尚可，下季度有望有所改善

USA | ShippingHafnia Decent results with some improvement comingnext quarter Hafnia's 1Q earnings report brought little surprise with underlying resultscoming in-line with our expectation but just below consensus. It declared a$0.10/sh dividend, equal to an 80% payout ratio, up from $0.03/sh the priorquarter. Operating results were generally steady quarter-over-quarter but thehigher payout comes on a full dividend payout of 80% of earnings as comparedto 4Q's share buyback-weighted return. We reiterate our Buy rating and $6target. 1Q results as expected, generally steady quarter-over-quarter:Hafnia reported 1Q EPS of $0.13,just ahead of our $0.12 estimate though below consensus of $0.14. Adjusted EBITDA of $125million was slightly under our $126 million forecast though consensus was higher at $135 million.These results improved slightly from the prior quarter, as 4Q EBITDA was $131 million. Its spotLR2s earned $33,911/day, LR1s $23,307/day, MRs $21,788/day and Handys $19,280/day. Itdeclared a dividend of $0.1015/sh, based on a full cash payout of 80% of earnings, and representsa little over half of ongoing free cash flow of $0.18/sh. There were no major changes to its fleet asits core owned fleet remained the same while one of its joint venture welcomed an MR newbuilding. Bookings look strong thus far into 2Q:Hafnia's bookings thus far into 2Q show a real improvementwith 57% of its full-fleet operating days fixed at an average of $24,839/day, which is higher than 1Q'sfinal result of $22,454/day. On a segment basis, it has fixed 53% of its LR2 days at $37,495/day,51% of its LR1s at $27,665/day, 62% of its MRs at $23,899/day and 55% of its Handys at $21,307/day. These are much stronger than we had expected, though current spot rate quotes are slightlysofter. We are modeling a full-fleet 2Q realized figure of $23,500/day. Higher planned drydockingsduring the quarter will affect results but overall we are maintaining our 2Q EPS of estimate of $0.14(consensus is currently $0.16). Solid balance sheet, supporting high-payout:Hafnia continues to maintain a solid balance sheetwith $188 million of cash on hand and $80 million held at its pools, while total debt amounts to$1.06 billion. Its net LTV stands at 24%, excluding non-cash working capital of $280 million whichwould adjust that figure to a net 15%. Based off the 24% net LTV, Hafnia sits at the 80% payoutthreshold of its dividend policy. It had briefly reached the 90% payout threshold last year when itsnet LTV dropped to 19% but recent softness in secondhand tanker values has pushed this leverageratio higher. Despite this, the company remains in solid shape and dividends are likely to remainan integral part of the Hafnia story. Reiterate Buy rating and $6.00 target:Hafnia shares appear to have broken their months-longdecline seen mostly from September 2024 until April 2025. The tanker sector's outlook hasimproved, with spot rates outperforming expectations counter-seasonally. We reiterate our Buyrating and $6 target. Omar Nokta * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8405 | onokta@jefferies.comJaeyoung McGarry * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8358 | jmcgarry@jefferies.comEmily Harkins * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8584 | eharkins@jefferies.com The Long View: Hafnia Investment Thesis / Where We Differ Hafnia's fleet operates almost exclusively in the spot market, taking fulladvantage of the firm product tanker rates of the past year. The company'sstrength comes from its sizable core owned fleet of over 115 vessels, whileoperating over 200 vessels with an average fleet age of 8.1 years. With theacquisition of 44 modern/eco vessels in 2022, Hafnia is able to harnessconsiderable earnings power. Management has signaled that the cash flowgenerated is likely to be used for deleveraging in combination with additionaldividend payouts to shareholders. Upside Scenario,$8.50, +63% Downside Scenario,$3.50, -33% Base Case,$6.00, +15% •Spot rates surge above breakeven levels•OPEC raises output faster than expected•Non-OPEC production increases sooner thanprojected•Global oil inventories remain at low levels•Iran sanctions lead to tighter tanker capacity•Secondhand ship values increase 25%•Shares trade in-line with NAV, equal to $8.50 •Prevailing ship values remain unchanged•OPEC production remains unchanged•Non-OPEC production increases gradually•Shares trade at 80-90% of NAV, equal to $6 •Spot VLCC rates remain below breakeven forextended period•OPEC unable to maintain targets•Non-OPEC output growth slower than expected•Global oil inventories increase rapidly•Secondhand ship values decrease 25%•Shares trade at a 20% discount to our adjustedNAV assessment leading to price level of $3.50 Sustainability Matters Catalysts Top Material Issue(s): 1) GHG emissions- Hafnia works alongside stakeholders, charterers, bunkersuppliers, etc. to achieve its zero-carbon emission goal. It incorporates several projects in its strategyto reduce carbon emissions, such as the Ascension C