土耳其食品零售商：盈利能力面临压力

Turkish Food Retailers EquitiesConsumer Brands & Retail Türkiye Profitability under pressure ◆Real top-line growthrates for all playershave been indeclinesince 3Q24,driven by weaker traffic figures Bulent Yurdagul*Head of EEMEA Consumer ResearchHSBC Bank Middle East Ltd, DIFCbulentyurdagul@hsbc.com+971 569445882 ◆However, with operational leverage, companiesappearset topost better margins and cash generation nextfewquarters Neerav Agarwal*Analyst, EEMEA ConsumerHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitedneerav.kumar.agarwal@hsbc.co.in+91 0 80 30012510 ◆MaintainBuy on BIM, Migros,Sok;valuations undemanding;BIM, Sok target prices intact,cut MigrosTP 5%to TRY665 Sumit Ratan*AssociateBangalore Weaker traffic asconsumersface pressure:Like-for-like (LFL)trafficdeclined in 1Q25forourthreecoveredfoodretailers inTürkiye,impacted by weakerconsumersandastronger base.Promotionaland marketingactivitiesare high,andreal top-linegrowth(adjusted for food inflation)isindeclinepost-3Q24. Migrosslightlyoutperformedwithmarket share gains,whileSokisonaslightrecoverypath(weaker base).Lower inflationfor basic commodities is a challengeforBIM’s top-line growth,butan increase inproductofferingsto 1,000(from900)coulddrive higherbasket growth.Ameaningfulreal LFLgrowth recovery for the sector is challenging,due tothenature of the disinflation program. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Margins to remain under pressureshort term:Sector grossmargin trendsare stabletoslightly pressuredon higher promotions. Opex pressure will be higher in 1H25 butlikelyto dilute over the coming quarters with operating leverage.Minimum wage growth of 30%at the start of the year hada front-loadedprofitimpact.Anyvoluntarywagehike fromcompanies (as seen last year)wouldadd pressure butlikelycompensate bysupportingconsumers’purchasingpower.Sokshowedopex-to-salesrecoveryin 1Q25fromalowerbase.We incorporate20bp y-o-y recovery forSok’sEBITDAmarginin 2025e, while forBIM and Migros wepencilacautiousc20bp lower y-o-y EBITDA margin. Cash flow volatility to persist:Cash flow volatilitywas higherin1Q25, partly due toone-offs (holidaypaymentimpact, delayed receivables,etc.)andactive working capitalmanagement(normalising of payable days for BIM and Sok). The one-offsmightreversein 2Q25(potential positive for Migros), while for 2H25 we think cash flowcanstillbepressured by weaker operating profitand ongoing capexneeds. MaintainBuy onall three,valuations undemanding:Migrosisan all-inclusive grocerin Türkiye, with presence across all consumer segments and a future-ready platform. WeconsiderBIMto bethe most resilient name intheTurkish consumer sector, andhaveapositive view on the growing scale of FILE operations.OurBuythesison Sokis driven bypotential margin recovery from a low base,as implied by a slightly better outlook providedduringthe1Q25earnings call. Listen to our insights Find out more Issuer of report:HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd,DIFC Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be readwith the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Top-line and LFL growth trend Migrosstillgrowing ahead of others, Sok showsslightrecoveryon low base,while BIMadds more productsto its storesto fuel growth Migros continues to command market share gains in Türkiye, with stronger top-line growth,although we think the base from here gets tougher and subsequent gains should be smaller tostable for Migros. The market share gain for Migros also comes on back ofan expansion instore footprint including online presence, promotion and offers, expansion into other adjacentservices like meal solutions, and exposure to the consumer segment, which shows higherinelasticity to grocery spending and is more driven by choices. Sok sales are recovering on alower base, and therefore a recovery in market share should be expected. BIM,on the otherhand,is growing below comparable competition, on account of higher exposure to basiccommodities, where food inflation is lower. However, the company strategically increased itsSKUs (stock-keeping units) to 1,000 (from 900) in 1Q25, which we think will support slightlyhigher basket size growth for the rest of the year. Unadjusted for inflation–higher opexpressure in 1Q25,normalisationin 2H25 Gross marginremainedbroadly stable for BIM and Migros in 1Q25 despite higher promotionalactivitydue toRamadanseason. We think promotions weremostlysupported by suppliers aswell, limitingmarginpressure. Sok, on the other hand,saw a 40bpy-o-ydecline (normalisation),in-line with the average of previousthreequarters.BIMexpectsgross margin normalisation in2025e asitdoesn’t see a need to go for early payments to suppliers (used as a tool last year).We expect BIM’sgross margin to decline by 40bp y-o-y in 2025e, while for Sok and Mi