Harmonic Drive Systems Inc（6324）：哈默纳科周期正在触底

15 May 2025 Jay Huang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2631jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com Harmonic Drive Systems Inc Dien Wang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2622dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperform Weibin Liang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2666weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 5,600.00 JPY 6324.JP Harmonic Drive: The cycle is bottoming out Harmonic Drive (HDSI) reported 4Q FY3/2025 results (Exhibit 1) largely in line with itsguidance updated in late April. The company confirmed a bottoming out of domestic orders,and a gradual recovery in orders from customers with optimized inventory. However, giventhe challenging and uncertain business environment, HDSI provided a conservative guidancefor the first half of FY3/2026 (Exhibit 2). We think it reflects clients’ intention to temporarilypostpone product deliveries rather than canceling their orders. Our updated HDSI model canbe downloaded here. Consolidated new orders increased by 15% YoY and 12% QoQ this quarter (Exhibit 7),showcasing a recovering trend. New orders from robotics continued to trend up (Exhibit8). The company mentioned that robot orders increased due to an increase in demandfrom a Chinese robot player and projects from new customers. Note that FANUC (OP) alsoconfirmed that inventory adjustments for robotics were nearly fully completed at the end oflast December, and we expect this positive impact to gradually benefit Harmonic Drive. We remain constructive on Harmonic Drive from a cyclical recovery perspective. In addition,Harmonic Drive stands to benefit directly from the humanoid robot trend with a clearfundamental case. Although the contribution to Harmonic Drive is limited in the near term, weforecast that 1/3 of Harmonic’s business could be in humanoid robots by 2031, and 2/3 by2036 (here). Investment Implications Reiterate OP. We maintain TP unchanged at JPY 5,600 by adopting a 32.0x EV/EBITDA onFY3/2027 EBITDA estimate of JPY 17,372 mn to reflect cyclical recovery and upside fromhumanoid robot theme. DETAILS APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社). On April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Harmonic Drive Systems Inc We use EV/EBITDA multiple as the primary valuation method. We set a JPY5,600 target price using an EV/EBITDA multiple of32.0x against our FY3/2027 EBITDA estimate of JPY 17,372 mn. We set the target multiple referencing previous cycles but adjustfor secular or competitive trends that we believe are moving multiples higher or lower across multiple cycles. We use DCF asreference for the company's long-term intrinsic value. As we move along the different stages of a cycle, the time-dependent targetprice may deviate from the DCF-implied value. RISKS Harmonic Drive Systems Inc The risks to our view on HDSI are mainly associated with the global macro economy, including industrial capex cycles, competitionand currency. As HDSI has >50% of global share in strain wave reducer, potential change in competitive landscape would be amore relevant risk than to other companies. Therefore, the downside risks include: 1) weaker than expected global robot demand,2) losing market share to competitors, and 3) appreciation of JPY. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index (EDM) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the Asia Pacificregion, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JP) for stocks listed on the Japanese exchanges,and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Pric