识别两个相对确定的投资主题

Identify Two Relatively CertainInvestment Themes AnalystHE Kang, PhDSAC No. S0570520080004SFC No. BRB318hekang@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2202 Huatai Research 13 May 2025│China (Mainland) Weekly AnalystSUN HanwenSAC No. S0570524040002SFC No. BVB302sunhanwen@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228 Our core viewsThe main market disruptions in April were the US “reciprocal tariffs”and corporateearnings verification.Based onmarket reactions, amidoverseasuncertainties,domesticdemand-drivenconsumptionandlow-volatilityhigh-dividendplaysemerged as the mostconsensus-backed themes. With the easing of tariffriskexpectationsand theresultsseason coming to an end, risk appetite recoveredslightly before theMay Dayholiday, with signs of arallyin theTMT sector. Webelieve domestic consumption and tech sectors may still have room to evolve andsuggest marginally increasing allocations. First, the Politburo meeting reaffirmedboth as key policy-supported areas. Second, both sectors include sub-segmentswith relative advantages in business climate. Third, holiday travel consumptiondata and financial results from overseas tech giants positively catalyzed certainsectors. Specifically, within TMT, we recommend focusing on the cloud computingchain, which has relatively high demand visibility. For domestic consumption, wesuggest focusing on H-share service consumption targets, as well as attractiveA-share names with improving turnover and profit margins, such as dairy andcondiments. Over the medium term, we believe the barbell strategy of allocating todividend + growth targets remains valid. Market choice amid“reciprocal tariffs”and“earnings verification”In April, A-share investors faced two major disturbances: heightened uncertainty from the US reciprocal tariff moves and intensive corporate earnings verification.Examining market performance after 3 April (when the reciprocal tariffs wereannounced) and on 30 April (when most earnings reportshad beenreleased), wehighlightthreekeytakeaways.First,overseas-demand-drivenmanufacturingcorrected significantly and has yet recovered. It is widely acknowledged that theimpact of“reciprocal tariffs”shouldmaterialize in 2Q25.The leading indicator PMIshows a decline in new export orders, and the NRF forecasts a negative yoy trendinUS container imports starting in May.Second, there isdivergence withindomestic-demandassets,withtheconsumersectoroutperformingwhiletheinfrastructure chainisrelatively lagging.The consumer sector remains the mainlever to expand domestic demand and has shown some results, whereas thesustainability of property and infrastructure post-peak season remains to be seen.Third, on 30 April, TMT outperformed on an excess return basis, while low-volatilityhigh-dividend plays underperformed.Easing tariff expectationsand the conclusionof result season improved investor sentiment,whilebuoyant TMT business climatewas confirmed,howeverwithin the low-volatility high-dividend segment, somelarge banks reported yoy declinesin revenue and profit for 1Q25. Domestic developments: highlights in holiday consumptionHolidayconsumptionisamajorfocusforinvestors,andwehave threeobservations. First, travel demand continued to rise. According to the Ministry ofTransport, total cross-regional personnel mobility reached920mn trips over thefirst three days of the May Day holiday, up 6% yoy on an average basis. Databreakdownindicateslonger traveldistances,benefitingtheaviationindustry.Second, cultural and tourism consumption was highly robust. Cross-border travelincreased in both directions, with outbound travel bookings on Ctrip showingdouble-digit yoy growth on the first day of the holiday, while inbound travelbookingsjumped141%yoy.Domestictraditionaltouristattractionsregainedpopularity, and within-county tourism also gained favor, with related bookings onthe Ctrip platform rising nearly 20% yoy and rural tourism bookings increasing byover 40% on the first day of the holiday, benefiting OTA platforms. Third, the filmmarketwaslukewarm.Movie-goingdemandwassignificantlyinfluencedbycontent quality.Total box office revenues over the first three days of the holiday fellsharplydue to a lack ofstandout titles. Overseasdevelopments: UStechgiants’resultsconfirm AIboomThe May Day holidaycoincided withtheUSresultsseason, and reports from major tech companies such as Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon were another key focus forinvestors. We highlight three takeaways. First, the negative impact of tariffs hasnot yet appeared in the data. Second, most hyperscale cloud service providersreportedcurrentcapacityshortages,indicatingsustainedboominthecloudservicesector. Third, most tech giants reported capex in line with or aboveexpectations—Meta notably raised its capex guidance toinvest in foundationalhardware—improving demand visibility across the upstream AI supply chain.Meanwhile, on the macro front, US April nonfarm payrollssignificantlyexceededexpectations, which may delay the timing of Fed rate cuts. Allocationadvice:marginallyincr