开放贷款（LPRO）：第一季度关注成本控制和客户留存；季度反映稳定

USA | Consumer FinanceOpen Lending 1Q: Cost Control and Customer Retention inFocus; Qtr. Reflects Stabilization EPS of $0.01 was in line with JEFe/Street's $0.01/$0.00. Rev beat conson higher program fees and profit share, but was partially offset by higherexpenses. Cert volumes of 27.7k were in line with the guide, and the 2Q guideis in line with expectations. Adj. EBITDA of $5.7M beat cons of $4.5M. LPROhas implemented price increases and stricter underwriting to navigate the env'tand achieve stability. Cost discipline and customer retention are top priorities. 1Q25 Results — EPS of $0.01 beat consensus of $0.00, driven by higher certs and revenue.Totalrevs of $24.4M beat cons of $22.3M on program fees of $15.2M v. cons $14.0M and Profit Shareof $6.7M v. cons $5.6M. Cost of service at $6.1M was higher than the Street's $5.8M and OPEX of$17.6M v. the Street's $16.4M. Total certs at 27.6K were in the middle of the guide of 27-28K, whileaverage program fees and average profit shares were higher than the consensus. Adj EBITDA of$5.7M was above the consensus of $$4.5M and EPS of $0.01 was in line with JEFe/the Street of$0.01/$0.00. FY (Dec)2024A2025E2026E2027ECons. Rev.24.090.1106.2-Rev. (MM)24.098.5111.7-FY P/ENM25.8x8.6xEV/Rev3.2x0.8x0.7xCall themes and company update.Management continues to prioritize cost discipline andcustomer retention while navigating the current environment and working to bring the companyback to stability. LPRO has taken pricing action and tightened underwriting in response to tariffsand its vintage credit performance. The company plans to increase rates by 10% in the comingmonths to account for tariffs. LPRO noted that volatility in vehicle pricing will have a greater impacton the business than the price increase itself. On credit, LPRO has started booking lower uniteconomics at the time of originations in order to prevent future negative CIE adjustments and hasdecreased its open secured card approvals. '24 vintage is noted to be outperforming '23 and '22vintages in the core business. Costs are being controlled, but their full impact is expected to be seenin 2026. Trends are positive, with origination from credit unions growing 15%, aided by the loan-to-share decreasing. Opportunities include OEM and refinancing, with LPRO highlighting a significantopportunity with OEM 3 and engaging in discussions with a credit union that has a substantialrefinancing portfolio. Finally, LPRO emphasized that customer retention is vital to the business andintends to prioritize it moving forward. John Hecht * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1569 | jhecht@jefferies.com Alexander Villalobos * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-1479 | avillalobos@jefferies.com Ibrahim Kargbo * | Equity Associate(415) 229-1447 | ikargbo@jefferies.com Yuna Sohn * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 416-9219 | ysohn@jefferies.com Jonathan Weitz * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-8717 | jweitz@jefferies.com * Jefferies LLC / Jefferies Research Services, LLCPlease see analyst certifications, important disclosure information, and information regarding the status of non-US analysts on pages 6 - 11 of this report. Thoughts on the stock.1Q results reflected a good recovery from the prior qtr., with stableorigination volumes and top line. Under new leadership, the company has implemented measuresto achieve stability and enhance its operations. The 2Q25 cert guide of 25.5k-27.5k is in line withconsensus expectations. The $25M repurchase authorization reflects management's belief thatthe stock is undervalued, and they plan to buy back shares when opportunities arise. LPRO seemswell-positioned for a market rebound. See the full report for guide/model updates and other color on the business trends. The Long View: Open Lending Investment Thesis / Where We Differ •Open Lending has nascent competition and is in a market that is a part ofthe core economy, which we think will continue to grow over time.•Open Lending maintains no balance sheet risk, and its revenue risk appearsmanageable and can be balanced and offset with actions such as changesto premium pricing. Upside Scenario,$3.00, +94% Base Case,$1.60, +3% Downside Scenario,$0.50, -68% •Credit loss increases, lowering profit share inthe NT.•Certs decline for several quarters, given currentindustry headwinds.•Expect a moderate recovery starting in the firsthalf of 2026.•$1.60 PT, 2.4x Book Value. •Outsized signing of OEM partners resulting inbetter-than-expected loan volume.•Losses are low, and premium increases providea revenue boost.•Continuedstrongdemandforautosasconsumers opt to forego public transit.•$3 PT, 4.5x Book Value. •Extended downturn puts a damper on auto loanorigination volume.•Credit unions severely retrench from consumercredit.•Losses rise, impacting revenues, and increasesininsurancepremiumsdonotfullycoverimpacts on revenues.•Slow adoption by OEM captives.•$0.50 PT, 0.8x Book Value. Sustainability Matters Catalysts Top Material Issue(s): 1)Selling practices and pro