纯苯苯乙烯调研报告

结论：压缩苯乙烯利润1.纯苯趋势偏弱仍然没有结束，短期进入供需两增格局。阶段性来看，纯苯绝对价格处于近四年低位，在原油偏强的背景之下，短期下方空间有限。但是，从中期格局来看，纯苯国内增产的主旋律仍然没有结束。国内装置检修回归、提高负荷仍在继续。虽然7月之后进口压力或缓和，但是6月仍然面临较高的进口现实端压力。供应偏多仍然是纯苯难以大幅反弹的核心原因。需求端在3-4月已经有一轮明显的负反馈，5月之后反而开始略有改善，部分己内酰胺、苯胺装置提高负荷，阶段性支撑纯苯需求。但是终端成品固体库存压力仍然没有缓和，纯苯中期仍然偏弱。2.苯乙烯压缩利润是5-6月的主题。目前苯乙烯港口库存偏低、下游维持高利润、高开工，导致当前苯乙烯利润偏高。但是随着苯乙烯装置开工逐步恢复，苯乙烯工厂库存压力明显增加，5月底港口累库压力明显。苯乙烯下游3S库存以超卖为主，但是下游经销商处于毁约的边缘反复试探。实际需求即将进入淡季，5月中旬也是苯乙烯高点容易出现的时间，在今年而言不是绝对价格的高点，而是利润高点出现的时间。后续重点关注下游在5月下半月降负、累库的情况，以及苯乙烯工厂隐性库存显性化的节奏。3.结论：关注苯乙烯逢高空、压缩苯乙烯利润。 05101520253001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31中国纯苯检修量202020212022202320242025010020030040050060070001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-2009-0109-1309-2510-0710-1910-3111-1211-2412-0612-1812-31PXN SGX M1201720182019202020212022202320242025纯苯弱现实：中性估值、中性库存、中性高供应的纯苯现货企稳仍然需要时间01-0301-1301-2602-0702-1703-0103-1403-2404-0504-1804-2805-1005-2606-1406-3007-1908-0408-2309-0809-2710-0710-2011-0111-1111-2412-0612-1612-29纯苯：产量：中国（周）2022202320242025010020030040050060070001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-09BZN2018201920202021202220232024202505101520253001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27纯苯：港口库存：华东地区（周）20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202501-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0603-1703-2804-0804-1904-3005-1105-2406-0506-1807-0107-1407-2708-0908-2109-0309-1609-2910-1210-2511-0611-1912-0212-1512-28纯苯：产能利用率：中国（周）2016201720182019202020212022202320242025 -2000002000040000600008000010000012000014000016000018000001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31苯乙烯：出口数量合计：中国（月）2020202120222023202405000100001500020000250003000001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31ABS：出口数量合计：中国（月）20202021202220232024纯苯月度进口数量（区域）:中国20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025纯苯进口超预期，eb下游出口也较多 01-0101-1201-2202-0202-1202-2303-0603-1703-2704-0704-1704-2805-1005-2206-0406-1706-3007-1207-2408-0608-1909-0109-1309-2510-08焦化开工率201920202021202220232024202501-0101-1201-2202-0202-1202-2303-0603-1703-2704-0704-1704-2805-1005-2206-0406-1706-3007-1207-2408-0608-1909-0109-13加氢苯利润：山东2019202020212022202320242025加氢苯供应不多 纯苯下游利润01-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-04BZN2018201920202021202220232024202501-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-04己二酸：生产毛利：中国（日）20182019202020212022202320242025 己内酰胺02-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-26己内酰胺：生产毛利：中国（日）20182019202020222023202402-1402-2403-0803-2004-0204-1504-2805-1005-2206-0406-1706-3007-1207-2408-06PA6：产能利用率：中国（周）201820192020202220232024 己二酸01-1301-2502-0502-1703-0103-1303-2504-0504-1704-2905-10己二酸：产能利用率：中国（周）201820192022202301-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31己二酸产量202020212022 苯酚02-0302-1402-2503-0803-1903-3004-1004-2105-02苯酚：产能利用率：中国（周）2016202202-0302-1402-2503-0803-1903-3004-1004-2105-02苯酚：检修损失量：中国（周）20162022 苯胺02-0302-1402-2503-1003-2204-0304-1604-2905-13苯胺产能利用率201820192022202302-0202-1202-2303-0603-1904-0104-1404-2605-08聚合MDI：库存：中国（周）20182022 苯乙烯02 苯乙烯当前格局：中性库存、高利润、中性产量01-0101-1201-2202-0302-1502-2603-1103-2404-0504-1704-3005-1305-2606-0706-1907-0207-1507-2808-0908-2109-0309-1609-2910-1110-2311-0511-1812-0112-1312-24苯乙烯库存2018201920202021202220232024202501-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0710-1910-3111-1211-2412-0612-1812-30苯乙烯：非一体化装置：生产毛利：中国（日）2018201920202021202220232024201120122013201420152016201720255055606570758085909501-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27苯乙烯：产能利用率：中国（日）2018201920202021202220232024202505000010000015000020000025000030000035000040000001-0101-1405000010000015000020000025000030000001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1504-2805-1105-2406-0606-1907-0207-1507-2808-1008-2309-0509-1810-0110-1410-2711-0911-2212-0512-1812-31苯乙烯：样本工厂：库存：中国（周）20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202502000040000600008000010000012000014000016000001-0101-1301-2520142020 芳烃全球价差：美亚物流价差无法打开，纯苯留在亚洲01-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-1011-2212-0412-1612-29纯苯：美国-韩国20182019202020212022202320242025-2000200400600800100001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-25甲苯：美国-韩国201820192020202220232024-2000200400600800100001-0201-1501-2802-1002-2303-0803-2104-0304-1604-2905-1205-2506-0706-2007-0307-1607-2908-1108-2409-0609-1910-0210-1510-2811-1011-2312-0612-19MX：美国-韩国2018201920202021202220232024202501-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-01韩国