为大额消费的中国游客的回归做准备

© Oliver WymanWHEN CAN WE EXPECT THE RETURN OF THE US$245 BN SPENT ON 155MN OUTBOUND TRIPSBY CHINESE TRAVELERS?Number of trips by Chinese travelers, 2017– 2019MNSource:National Bureau of Statistics of China,World Travel and Tourism Council, Oliver Wyman analysis5,00113120175,53915020186,0061552019+15%+4%OutboundDomesticUSD 245 BNChinese outbound tourismexpenditure in 2019 © Oliver WymanCOVID-19 related border control policyINTERNATIONAL TRAVEL OF CHINESE TRAVELERS GRADUALLY RECOVERS, LED BY MACAU AT~70% AFTER 6 MONTHS OF REOPENINGTravel recovery rate by destination%, 2023 YTD Chinese traveler count vs. 2019 YTD level (Jan– Jul)02550751002020Fullyear2021Fullyear2022Jan2022July2023Jan2023Jun2019levelvs. 2019 same period1. Jun 2023 dataSource: Government statistics, Oliver Wyman analysisMacau (74%)Australia (65%)Hong Kong, China (54%)1Singapore (59%)Thailand (37%)1Korea (35%)1Japan (24%)1Taiwan (6%)1 © Oliver WymanOLIVER WYMAN SURVEYED AFFLUENT CHINESE TRAVELERS IN JUNE 2023 TO UNDERSTANDTHEIR PLANS FOR 2023 AND BEYONDOnline survey conducted in Mainland China during June 17-25, 20233,495 survey respondentsof which,1,000 respondentshave:•Travelled internationally or planning to travel internationally in 2023for leisure•18-year-old or above, covering Gen Z to Baby Boomers•Minimal monthly household income of RMB 30,000•65% spent at least RMB 10,000 in 2022 on personal luxury products(leather goods, fashion, jewelries and watches, beauty)Oliver Wyman’sChinese traveler survey2023 edition4 THINGS YOU SHOULDKNOW ABOUT THE COMEBACKOF CHINESE TRAVELERSOliver Wyman’s perspectiveJuly 2023 © Oliver Wyman4 THINGS YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT THE RETURN OF THE CHINESE TRAVELERSNew int’l travelersaim at South Korea,Hong Kong SAR,and SingaporeFull recovery isunlikely to takeplace until 2024 H2at best2023 is all aboutrevisits, withexperienced travelersback to Hong KongSAR and WesternEuropeGen Z new workforceare fueling foodie tripsas they travel for theexperience and careless about shoppingChinese Travelers will befully back 2024H2 at best2023 is about revisitingfamiliar destinations1sttime int’l travelersseek something differentLuxury shoppers are back,but not spending as muchWell-off New Tier 1city retirees emerge inshopping tourism witha generous budgetready to spend onshoppingTravel is expectedto reach 60% ofpre-COVID level in2023 5Internationalluxury shoppingis back, but not forGen ZEspecially new luxuryshoppers preferdomestic shoppingover internationalshopping CHINESE TRAVELERSWILL BE FULLY BACK2024H2 AT BEST © Oliver WymanONLY AROUND 60% OF EXPERIENCED AFFLUENT TRAVELERS PLAN TO RESUME INT’LTRAVELLING IN 2023, WHILE 30% WILL WAIT FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 YEARSExpected international travel timeline% of respondents162%10%9%4%23%29%57%Pre-COVIDint’l travelersNew int’l travelers202320242025-262027+1. Minimal monthly household income of RMB 30,000Question: When do you plan to travel? Why do you not plan to travel?Source: Oliver Wyman’s Chinese traveler survey (Jun 2023), Oliver Wyman analysis © Oliver WymanDOMESTIC TRAVEL IS SEEN AS A GREAT ALTERNATIVE AFTER ALMOST THREE YEARS OFBORDER CLOSUREReasons for deferred travelling plan% of respondentsPre-COVID int’l travelersNew int’l travelers73322283475328358Domestic travel is sufficientInternational travel is too costlyHealth risksNo valid passport/visaLimited flight scheduleQuestion: Why do you not plan to travel in 2023?Source: Oliver Wyman’s Chinese traveler survey (Jun 2023), Oliver Wyman analysis24% ofPre-COVIDtravelersare waryof flight cost, while 48%ofNon-int’l travelersare concerned aboutthe general affordabilityof an int’l trip © Oliver WymanFULL RECOVERY OF CHINESE OUTBOUND LEISURE TRAVEL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THESECOND HALF OF 2024 AT BESTEstimated Chinese Int’l leisure traveler recovery 2023-2026% of 2019 travel levelQ1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Pre-COVIDInt’l TravelersPost-COVIDNew Int’l Travelers2019 level244879104120138Question: Where have you travelled to internationally for leisure before COVID? Where did you go for leisure travel in 2023? Do you plan to travel to these destinations in 2023? When do you plan to travel?Source: Oliver Wyman’s Chinese traveler survey (Jun 2023), Oliver Wyman analysis2023202420252026 2023 IS ABOUTREVISITING FAMILIARDESTINATIONS © Oliver WymanHONG KONG REMAINS THE TOP CHOICE FOR AFFLUENT CHINESE TRAVELERS IN 2023;WESTERN EUROPE IS THE 2NDMOST POPULAR DESTINATIONTravel destinations visited in or planned for 2023% of international travelers, monthly household income of RMB 30K+23%16%15%14%13%12%12%10%9%7%7%6%4%4%HongKong,ChinaWesternEurope(excl. UK)JapanSouthKoreaMacau,ChinaSingaporeThailandNorthAmericaAustralia/NewZealandTaiwan,ChinaUKMalaysiaUnitedArabEmiratesIndonesiaVietnamQuestion: Where did you go for leisure travel in 2023? Do you plan to travel to these destinations in 2023?Source: Oliver Wyman’s Chinese traveler survey (Jun 2023), Oliver Wyman analysis © Oliver WymanEXPERIENCED AFFLUENT INT’L TRAVELERS ARE FIRST HEADING B