主动交通安全始终值得投资

© Oliver WymanEXECUTIVE SUMMARYRoad traffic accidents are a$3 trillion burden to society each year, comprised ofsocial,health, and economic costs. Solving this problem is a primary agenda item worldwide,involving top inter-governmental institutions and private sector players.Leading nations typicallytarget a ‘Vision Zero’ outcome by 2050— a scenario in whichthere are zero traffic-related deaths and accidents for every 100,000 inhabitants. However,achieving such an ambition is acomplex matter. With this in mind, Oliver Wyman assessedthe traffic safety actions of 25 public and private sector leadersand identified 15 buildingblocks for a world-class traffic safety approach. The framework includes an overall vision,targets, governance, pillars such as infrastructure requirements, and enablers such aseducation and technology.By applying our approach,nations could reduce traffic deaths by 25-50%. Moreover,the socioeconomic benefits to be gained — in the form of lives saved, a reduction in thehealthcare burden, and a boost to the local economy, among others — would translateintoa solid return on investment, with multipliers of 5-50 times, depending on thestarting conditions. © Oliver WymanPOOR TRAFFIC SAFETY IS A $3 TRILLION BURDENTraffic safety is one of the road sector‘s most paramount key performance indicators.Overall, the term refers to the practices and strategies that are implemented topreventroad users from getting injured or dying. ‘Road users’ in this context include vehicledrivers, pedestrians, cyclists, motorists, their passengers, as well as the passengers ofon-road public transport, such as buses andtrams.According to the World Health Organization, approximately1.3 million people die in roadtraffic accidents annually, and 20-50 million suffer serious injuries.1The burden onsociety ismultifaceted:•Social: Broken families andmourning•Health: Physical disabilities, psychological trauma, and cognitiveimpacts•Economic: Healthcare and medical costs, material (such as car and road repairs),and labor forceimpactsWhile the cost to human life is reason enough to tackle this issue it is not the onlyconsequence of poor traffic safety: it is estimated that road traffic accidents cost mostcountries 3% of their GDP2— that’s the equivalent of a$2.91 trillion drag on theglobal economy.What are the global approaches to solving the problem? Traffic safety is aprimaryagenda item worldwide, with multiple international and local institutions involved atall levels.Policy in this area is typically implemented through a top-down approach.Inter-governmental institutions and governments define the broader agenda, which theindependent institutions then support. The private sector is also important when it comesto driving awareness and instilling a traffic safety consciousness in both employees andsociety at large.1Extracted from:https:/www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/road-traffic-injuries2Ibidem © Oliver WymanRegardless of the sector they represent, most stakeholder’s objectives are basedon“no tolerance” for accidents or deaths, and targets are generally ambitious.Here are some specificexamples:Exhibit 2:Examples of traffic safetyambitionsUnited NationsIn 2021, the United Nations announced its aim to halve the number of globaldeaths and injuries from road accidents by2030European CommissionThe European Commission has a goal to reduceroad deaths to zero by 2050Global RoadSafetyPartnershipZero Tolerance: “A world free of road crash death andinjury”TotalEnergies“TotalEnergies promotes the development of astrong safety cultureamong itscontractors and suppliers; the company has set a goal ofZero Fatal Accidents”Source: UN, EC, GRSP, and TotalEnergies public information,Oliver Wyman analysis © Oliver WymanAchieving such ambitions will require different degrees of effort, based on both a country’sstatus quo (in other words, how developed its road sector ecosystem is) and its startingpoint (meaning its current traffic safetylevels).Exhibit3, below,depicts the significant regional differences in traffic safety, using datafrom 2019, which is the most recently available time period to analyze because COVID-19lockdowns mean the data from 2020, 2021, and even 2022 in some countries is not fullyrepresentativeglobally.Despite the lack of aggregate 2022 data, news and reports issued by many countriesindicate a downward trend — thus, we are optimistic that globally, roads will actually besafer in the post-COVIDera.In 2019,Europe was the safest region, with 7.3 deaths for every 100,000 inhabitants,followed by North America (9.0), the Gulf Cooperation Council or GCC (10.7), the WesternPacific (13.5), South-East Asia (16.8), Central and South America (18.2), and the MiddleEast [excluding the GCC] (19.9).Africa remains the least safe region(at 29.0 deaths per100,000inhabitants).Exhibit 3:Road mortality in 2019 measured as death rate per 100,000peopleAfricaGCCMiddle East (excl. GCC)Central and South AmericaNorth AmericaEuropeSouth-East A