生物甲烷将使大宗商品交易商数十亿美元的三个原因

© Oliver WymanINTRODUCTIONBiomethane presents one of the fastest-growing opportunities in commodity tradingtoday. Produced by converting organic waste and feedstock into methane, it has emergedas a promising solution in sustainably fuelling transportation, industry, and dispatchableelectricity production. With decarbonization imperatives driving demand and correspondingacceleration in supply, European production of biomethane is expected to grow tenfoldby 2030.As a result, traders have an enormous volume and margin opportunity, driven by three keyfactors: rapid market growth, feedstock and end-user diversity, and opportunities to definethe landscape. Taken together, these factors imply a gross trading margin of €2 billion.THE BENEFITS OF BIOMETHANEThe most significant force for change in the energy sector is the imperative to decarbonize.In the race to slash carbon emissions, governments and corporations are constantly lookingfor new tools to add to their arsenal. This is especially true for sectors that are moredifficultto decarbonize with renewable electricity, like heavy-duty transport and industrial heat. Italso applies to the challenge of being able to produce electricity when there is no wind or sun.Biomethane can be produced from digesting organic waste, such as food, agriculturalwaste, or manure, or from dedicated food crops. Similarly, city sewage and landfill wastecan be converted into biomethane. Such production is carbon neutral since it captures andharnesses existing methane (a potent greenhouse gas) rather than emitting additionalgreenhouse gases through burning natural gas from the ground. Even better, onceprocessed, biomethane can be used for the same applications and in the same infrastructureas conventional natural gas, making it desirable and economical for end-users to switch. © Oliver WymanTHREE MAIN FACTORS WHY BIOMETHANE ISTHE NEXT BIG THING FOR COMMODITY TRADERS1. THERE HAS BEEN RAPID GROWTH OF BIOMETHANE IN ADDRESSABLE MARKETSThe combination of transport and industrial demand, political commitments, and investmentdesire will create significantly higher demand for biomethane. In response, European energycompanies are committed to making significant investments to developing biomethaneprojects and capture value from the combination of carbon neutrality and circularity. Theseindustry commitments and government policies are driving a tenfold increase in the Europeanbiomethane market, reaching a total addressable market of 300 to 340 terrawatt-hours(TWh) by 2030 (or about 1000 to 1100 billion cubic feet [BCF]). By comparison, the EuropeanHydrogen strategy targets the production of 394 TWh of renewable hydrogen (about 1300BCF in natural gas equivalents) in the same year.1European biomethane production willbe traded and cross border trade will grow from 2.5 TWh today to 75 to 150 TWh in 2030.Exhibit 1: The biomethane market and production evolution,€/MWh (2023)Source: European Commission’s REPowerEU Plan of 18 May 2022, European Biogas Association press release1European Commission,A hydrogen strategy for a climate-neutral Europe, COM(2020) 301 final,2020. © Oliver WymanThe addressable market is split by four end-use sectors: Transportation, biomethane as rawmaterial, the EU Emissions Trading System, and the voluntary market. The largest of thesesectors, accounting for more than half of 2030 demand, is the transport sector, which isfocused on using biomethane to replace existing consumption of compressed natural gas(CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) and create new demand for this zero-carbon fuel.End-users are also seeking to prove to stakeholders that sufficient biomethane of Europeanor local origin can be produced to foster further adoption. This is especially importantin use cases where technological alternatives are not expected to be cost-competitive ortechnologically mature enough for the foreseeable future.From an investment point of view, several players, including oil and gas companies,industrial gas users, and investment funds, have committed significant capital to developthe biomethane market. This reflects a desire to capitalize on existing expertise, investina growing market, and align investments with sustainability priorities.2. THERE IS FEEDSTOCK AND END-USER DIVERSITYBiomethane can be produced — and is demanded — at a very wide range of carbonintensities, based on the diversity of feedstock and differentiated end-user requirements.This differentiation unlocks higher margins, as traders play the pivotal role in matchingsupply and demand. Gross margins for biomethane trading today are approximately6% to 12%, compared to 1% to 2% for conventional LNGtrading.In contrast to conventional LNG and CNG, biomethane production is dependent on severalfeedstock-related factors that can result in wildly different carbon intensities for productionbatches. The carbon dioxide intensity of a biomethane batch can even be negative. © Oliver WymanFor instance, where manure is used as feed