破解东南亚50亿美元骗局挑战

© Oliver WymanTHE IMPACT OF SCAMS IN SOUTHEAST ASIAThe prevalence of fraud, and in particular consumer scams, has skyrocketed across SoutheastAsia (SEA). The sharp rise is due to the proliferation of mobile banking applications and instantpayment systems, more and more e-commerce-based transactions, the wealth of personalinformation available on social media, and the generally increasing sophistication of scammers.Challenges will in fact, be further amplified with the growing usage of generative artificialintelligence (generative AI) and the expected introduction in 2024 or 2025 of real-time cross-border payments across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). This view issupported by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS)’s publication “Nexus: enablinginstant cross-border payments”.Reported scam cases in SEA stood at about400,000 in 2022, having grown at an alarmingrate of over 50% every year since 2020, when there were fewer than 150,000 cases.Our analysis suggests that total losses across SEA exceeded US$5.0 billion1, with customersbearing the vast majority of these. In Thailand alone, for example, the Royal Thai Policereported more than 200,000 scam cases in 2022, with losses totaling over THB30 billion,equivalent to about US$900 million.Since 2020, there has been a 50% annual increase in scamsacross SEA.The rising prevalence of scams has had a considerable impact not only on consumers, but alsobanks, in particular retail banks. For example, in SEA, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS),Bank of Thailand (BoT), and Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) have each introduced new measuresin 2023 with which banks need to comply with. These include but are not limited to the banningof clickable links, limits on mobile devices per user, enhancement of authentication controls,implementation of kill-switches, and implementation of real-time scam detection and monitoringsolutions that go beyond traditional card fraud monitoring. In Singapore, authorities havealso set up an Anti-Scam Command, which co-locates banks and law enforcement agenciesto enhance real-time collaboration on scams. Meanwhile, the Thai Bankers’ Associationhas announced the setting up of a Central Fraud Registry for data sharing on suspiciousfraudulent transactions.While these measures are critical, they are only partially effective in protecting customersfrom being scammed, are predominantly reactive, and too often come at significantoperationalcosts to banks. Principally, the banks need to run dedicated scam detection and call centerteams operating 24/7 to manage inbound scam cases and potential scam alerts, many ofwhich are false positives.1Based on review of scams reported by regulator published reports, police and law enforcement reports and newsarticles from reliable publications across Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam. © Oliver WymanBeyond the significant operational burden, banks face the risk of being held liable for ashareof customer losses. As detailed in the MAS publication “A Framework for Equitable Sharingof Losses Arising from Scams”, Singapore is exploring the setup of an equitable loss-sharingframework, and we foresee other regulators in SEA following suit amid stronger expectationson consumer protection. As a point of reference, in the UK, where a similar framework wasestablished in 2019, banks have reimbursed about 50% of scam-related losses.Against this backdrop of elevated risk from scammers, banks in SEA need to act now toproactively address the rising threat to their customers and themselves.Banks need an overhaul of their scam-prevention strategy across customer education andinteractions, analytics, organizational setup, and industry collaboration. In this report we layout our perspectives on three critical levers that banks in SEA should pursue to implementan intelligence and analytics-led approach to protecting customers from scams, whilemanaging costs and maintaining a good experience for customers.Lever 1:ADVANCED ANALYTICS TO IDENTIFY POTENTIALSCAM VICTIMSBanks need to put in place strong detective and predictive capabilities to preemptively identifycustomers who are at risk of being scammed, or are in the early stages of a scam. In doing so,most banks have either implemented or are in the process of implementing real-time scamdetection solutions, either by leveraging in-house capabilities or by taking advantage of thesuitable systems of third-party vendors. As they implement these solutions, banks mustmanage the dual considerations of erring on the side of caution when investigating likelyscams, and the expediency of taking remedial action.However, under the current approach, banks often face false positive rates in excess of 80%.This creates significant operational challenges in terms of not only higher costs, butalsoin terms of alert resolution activities for cases of confirmed suspicion. While regular back-testing and tuning can improve the efficacy of these solutions, the inherent