商品交易的成长故事

© Oliver WymanFor the commodity trading industry, 2023 marked a year of rebalancing.Supply chains, commodity prices, market volatility, and economic growthacross regions and sectors began to normalize after the disruptions in 2022.As a result,Oliver Wymananalysis shows trading gross margin declined fromthe 2022 record high of $150 billion to around $100 billion in 2023. Althoughmargin declined, 2023 still ranks as the second highest level of industryprofits, after sustained growth since2018.By providing stability to existing supply chains and support for emerging supply chains,traders gained influence in the reconfigured landscape. This position enabled tradersto accumulate about $70 billion to $120 billion in cash over successive years of strongperformance. With a changing of the guard at the C-suite level across commodity tradingfirms, those cash reserves provide the opportunity for new management teams to becomemore impactful long-term investors in the energyecosystem.The impactful role is also a high-profile role, and last year traders became more public facingthan ever before, operating as trusted counterparties to a wider range of stakeholders thanin the past. Traders will need to adapt their culture to accommodate their new role and theexpectations it brings. This includes becoming more comfortable with additional scrutiny oftheir governance and sustainability practices, investing in portfolio-level risk management andsteering, changing operating models, and hiring the right talent to fill critical capabilitygaps.As flows rebalanced, total gross margin generated bycommodity trading regressed to the mean, down from a peakof $150 billion in 2022 to around $100 billion in2023 © Oliver WymanINDUSTRY REBALANCES AFTER RECORD2022The commodity trading industry rebalanced in 2023 following a period of fundamentaldisruptions in cross-commodity trade flows in 2022, when trading gross margins reacheda record of about $150 billion. As commodity markets settled and supply chains stabilized,gross margin declined to around $100 billion in 2023 and reverted to the positive, if lessextreme, trend it has followed for the past severalyears.Exhibit 1:Total global commodity trading grossmarginUS$billion2018Commodity typeSize of the decrease in gross marginfrom 2022–2023:20192020202120222023estimate~105Player typeTop fiveasset-backed tradersTop fivemerchant tradersFinancial players(banks, hedge funds)Agricultural andfood products<20%20–30%Metals and mining(including coal)Integrated gas,power, and emissionsOil2020406080100120140160Sustained trend of growthin overall trading margins1. Integrated gas, power, and emissions consists of European power and gas, North American power and gas, global LNG,and niche products such as Asian power and gas andemissions.2. Oil includes crude, products, chemicals, biofuels, and associated investorproducts.3. Top five asset-backed traders adjusted 2022 figures to account for extraordinarylosses.Source:Oliver Wymanproprietary data andanalysisThe reversion to this trend indicates two things. First, 2022 was a year dominated byidiosyncratic events, and record margins were not sustainable. But second, the structuralfactors that drive commodity trading profitability remain in place. Ongoing tightness ofsupply in major commodities means potential future shocks to commodity markets couldcause extremevolatility. 5–10%15–20%25–30%25–30%Change2022–2023CAGR2018–2023315–20%20–25%35–40%>30%120–25%Others © Oliver WymanWhile gross margins for crude trading declined due to lower volatility in 2023, producttrading margins were often maintained due to continued inefficiencies and reconfigurationof trading flows. For power and gas, the gross margin decline can be attributed to thereduction in European power prices and in arbitrage opportunities for liquified natural gas(LNG) between eastern and western markets. Relatively mild winter conditions across theglobe, coupled with increasing LNG capacities and availability, left countries with greaterthan expected natural gas stocks. Metals and mining showed the steepest decreasefrom the highs of 2022, mostly driven by the price of coal returning to 2021 levels, down50% from 2022, reducing the potential forprofits.NEW EXECUTIVES HAVE SIGNIFICANT CASH TOINVESTIN LONG-TERMSTRATEGIESCommodity trading firms retained a significant portion of their rising gross margins ascash on their balance sheets during the last five years. The amount of earnings retained islikely about $70 billion to $120 billion for this five-year period, according toOliver Wymananalysis. This huge reserve is shifting to the control of a new wave of leaders. SinceFebruary 2022, at least 20 senior executives in commodity trading firms have steppedinto new positions, including the roles of chief executive officer, chief financial officer, andheads of trading divisions. Now, 75% of senior executives have tenures that are below theaverage tenure of their predecessors five yearsago.Exhibit 2:Tenure amon