mro增长的动荡

© Oliver WymanINTRODUCTIONThe annualOliver WymanMRO survey samples the attitudes and strategies of executivesfrom across the aviation industry, as they address key trends and emerging issues in themaintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) sector. In this year’s survey, we focus on thepersistent challenges of cost inflation and labor shortages, supply chain managementresponses, and the outlook for technology implementation. As always, we have leveragedthe latestOliver WymanGlobal Fleet and MRO Forecast to provide additional color anddata to reinforce our marketfindings.This year, nearly 150 aviation professionals participated in the survey, providing expertisedrawn from airline and independent MROs, airline operators, original equipmentmanufacturers (OEMs), and others. The survey is international in scope; two-thirds ofrespondents have a primary base of operations outside of North America. More thanhalf of survey respondents are senior executives (C-suite, vice presidents, and above)and 82% are director level orabove.The MRO industry has made considerable progress in recovering from the impact of theCOVID-19 pandemic. Per our2024 Global Fleet and MRO Forecast, the market reached$101 billion in 2023, which is 98% of the 2019 pre-COVID peak in real dollars (Exhibit1). Thisyear, MRO spending is expected to set a new record of $104 billion. This growth, however,is largely being driven by price escalation rather than volume. Looking ahead, we predictthe MRO industry will expand by an annual rate of 1.8% through 2034, reaching $124 billion.This growth will be driven by increasing utilization rates, fleet growth, and higherpassengerdemand.Exhibit 1:Global MRO spending forecast through2034US$billions10360708310110411020192020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034Note: CAGR stands for compound annual growthrateSource:Oliver WymanGlobal Fleet and MRO Market Forecast2024–2034 1112024-2034 CAGR:1.8%113114117118118119121124 © Oliver WymanAs we do each year, we asked survey respondents to share what they think will be the topdisruptors in the MRO industry over the next five years (Exhibit2). For the third year in a row,cost management and labor shortages were cited as the top two disruptors, and by a widemargin, with more than 60% of respondents placing them in their topfour.Coming in third is a newly added category: inflation and/or economic slowdown. After threeyears of rapid post-pandemic recovery, the industry is concerned about slowing growth andwhether costs will continue to rise more rapidly than in the past. This is in line with the loweraverage GDP growth, underlying our 2024 Global Fleet and MRO forecast, of only2.4%.The number one disruptor in 2021, changes in fleet plans/strategies, has been steadilydropping in the rankings and is now fourth — an indication of greater stability in the market.This trend is supported by our 2024 fleet forecast, which shows aircraft retirements slowing by13% between 2022 and2024.Other top disruptors naturally stem from market uncertainties. There is an ongoing “back tobasics” shift — with more concern over cost management and less for emerging technologies.Despite much hype and attention, game-changing technology remains firmly in seventh place.The focus for the next five years we think is going to continue to be on building back andcreating lean, adaptable businesses, rather than on emergingdisruptors.Other ongoing industry concerns bubble just beneath the surface. The expansion of OEMs inthe aftermarket is a particular worry for MRO respondents (who ranked it third among theirtop four disruptors). Carbon emissions reduction and reporting, while not yet top of mind,is emerging into view. We expect this topic will only gain in importance, as momentum onsustainability and climate risk continues tobuild.Exhibit 2:Top disruptors,2019–2024As ranked by surveyrespondentsRank1.Labor/material cost management2.Maintenance technician labor shortage3.Inflation and/or economic slowdown4.Changes to fleet plans/strategies5.Growth in OEM aftermarket presence6.Aftermarket industry consolidation7.Game-changing technology advancements8.Carbon emission reductions and reporting9.Business impact due to rising oil prices/interest ratesising oil prices/interest rates2021202220232024201911Note: No ranking available for2020Source:Oliver Wyman2019-2024 MROSurveys © Oliver WymanLABOR MARKETINSTABILITYThe magnitude of labor cost increases has become unsettling. In 2022, labor costs roseby 5.9-6.4% across categories (airframe, engine, etc.). But survey respondents at that timeexpected labor cost increases to moderate in 2023, to around 5.6%. Instead, they jumped bya hefty 7.3% on average worldwide. (By comparison, wages for US aircraft manufacturingworkers, a commonly used benchmark, grew by only2.6%.)By category, line maintenance had the largest average increase, at 7.7%. Line maintenancehas been hit especially hard by the labor shortage; finding experienced employees willin