批发银行在信贷市场中的角色演变
2AuthorsMORGAN STANLEYBetsy L. Graseck, CFA1EQUITY ANALYST+1 212 761-8473Betsy.Graseck@morganstanley.comMichael J. Cyprys, CFA, CPA1EQUITY ANALYST+1 212 761 7619Michael.Cyprys@morganstanley.comVishwanath Tirupattur1STRATEGIST+1 212 761 1043Vishwanath.Tirupattur@morganstanley.comGiulia Aurora Miotto, CFA2EQUITY ANALYST+44 20 7425-5344Giulia.Aurora.Miotto@morganstanley.comBob Huang1EQUITY ANALYST+1 212 761 6136Bob.Huang@morganstanley.comBruce Hamilton2EQUITY ANALYST+44 20 7425-7597Bruce.Hamilton@morganstanley.comManan Gosalia1EQUITY ANALYST+1 212 761 4092Manan.Gosalia@morganstanley.comConnell J. Schmitz1RESEARCH ASSOCIATE+1 212 761 6252Connell.Schmitz@morganstanley.comRyan Kenny, CFA1EQUITY ANALYST+1 212 761 1664Ryan.Kenny@morganstanley.com1 Morgan Stanley & Co LLC2 Morgan Stanley & Co. International PLC+3 Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.+ OLIVER WYMANDylan WalshPARTNER+1 617 650 1457Dylan.Walsh@oliverwyman.comJulian GorskiPARTNER+1 610 639 951794Julian.Gorski@oliverwyman.comMagnus BurklPARTNER+49 69 97173457Magnus.Burkl@oliverwyman.comDaniel MartinENGAGEMENT MANAGER+44 7920 877901Daniel.Martin@oliverwyman.comAlexandre LearyASSOCIATE+44 7810 173481Alexandre.Leary@oliverwyman.comChristina BiASSOCIATE+852 22011764Christina.Bi@oliverwyman.comAlex WrayCONSULTANT+44 7587 821879Alex.Wray@oliverwyman.comAlice BruCONSULTANT+44 7587 821879Alice.Bru@oliverwyman.com+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associatedpersons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subjectcompany, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Morgan Stanley ResearchContributorsMORGAN STANLEYAlvaro Serrano3EQUITY ANALYSTAlvaro.Serrano@morganstanley.comStephanie Ma1RESEARCH ASSOCIATEStephanie.Ma@morganstanley.comMarina Massuti2EQUITY ANALYSTMarina.Massuti@morganstanley.comJoyce Jiang1STRATEGISTJoyce.Jiang@morganstanley.comErica Reynolds1RESEARCH ASSOCIATEErica.Reynolds@morganstanley.comJames Koehne1RESEARCH ASSOCIATEJames.Koehne@morganstanley.comMia Nagasaka4EQUITY ANALYSTMia.Nagasaka@morganstanleymufg.comNick Lord5EQUITY ANALYSTNick.Lord@morganstanley.comPamela Zuluaga2EQUITY ANALYSTPamela.Zuluaga@morganstanley.comGulnara Saitkulova2EQUITY ANALYSTGulnara.Saitkulova@morganstanley.com1 Morgan Stanley & Co LLC2 Morgan Stanley & Co. International PLC+3 Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.+4 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., LTD.+5 Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) PTE.+ OLIVER WYMANHuw van SteenisVICE CHAIRHuw.VanSteenis@oliverwyman.comSteven ZamskySENIOR ADVISORSteven.Zamsky@oliverwyman.comRonan O’KellyPARTNERRonan.OKelly@oliverwyman.comElisa HainingPRINCIPALElisa.Haining@oliverwyman.comPhilip JacobsPRINCIPALPhilip.Jacobs@oliverwyman.comLaura WatkinENGAGEMENT MANAGERLaura.Watkin@oliverwyman.comKatie SessaENGAGEMENT MANAGERKatie.Sessa@oliverwyman.comElena CamiciolaENGAGEMENT MANAGERElena.Camiciola@oliverwyman.comMichael MagumbeSENIOR RESEARCH ANALYSTMichael.Magumbe@oliverwyman.com 4Contents5Executive Summary6Section 1. Industry Outlook10Section 2. The Credit Transformation14Section 3. Risks and Opportunities for Wholesale Banks from the Transformation21Section 4. The Role of Wholesale Banks in the Future Landscape25Section 5. Conclusion Morgan Stanley ResearchExecutive SummaryOutlook for wholesale banksWholesale banks have spent the years since the Global FinancialCrisis reshaping their business models to build resilience and gen-erate sustainable returns.This transformation has been profound,as evidenced by the performance across the industry through a waveof very different market shocks. While the macroeconomic outlookremains uncertain, we expect Corporate and Institutional Banks tocontinue delivering healthy returns in most probable scenarios andto outperform in our base case, which assumes a soft landing. Criticalto sustaining this robust outlook is the declining risk that US regula-tors implement aggressive new capital requirements as part of theBasel 3 Endgame rulemaking.Credit is one area where the transformation of the wholesalebanking business model is not complete.The structure of the creditbusinesses within Corporate and Institutional Banking (CIB) andCommercial Banking still look much like they did before the crisis:several, largely independent, businesses that originate, hold, and dis-tribute credit risk in different ways. However, regulatory pressure,product innovation, and the entry of new competitors are nowshifting the sources of value for these businesses. We estimate that$35-50 billion in existing banking revenue is at risk in the transition(representing 8-11% of the $440 billion of revenue generated bybanks in credit activities across CIB and Commercial Banking in2023). 5The evolution in credit is not necessarily bad news for banks.Asobserved in the Equities and Macro businesses over the past 20years, opportunities will emerge for banks to serve a more diverselandscape of market participants, in ways that may consum
