资金回流：新鲜空气

Back to inflows 25 April 2025 A breath of fresh air Credit StrategyEurope Two weeks of sizeable outflows across fixed income assets have been followed by amarginal inflow. While high yield funds were left out of the game, inflows were recordedacross EM debt and IG funds. A blend of declining rates vol (though still elevated), muchlower bund yields and some respite in trade wars front has provided some relief.However, derisking still persists as asset managers appear to prefer to allocate moreinto government debt rather than credit funds (exhibits 12 and 13). Ioannis AngelakisCredit Derivatives StrategistMLI (UK)+44 20 7996 0059ioannis.angelakis@bofa.com Barnaby MartinCredit StrategistMLI (UK)+44 20 7995 0458barnaby.martin@bofa.com Over the past week… High gradefunds recorded marginal inflows last week, a relief from the previous twoweeks of sizable outflows. Inflows have continued uninterrupted for the ninth week in arow into“short”term IG funds. Outflows have been the theme for mid-term IG funds forseven weeks now. Mohit AgarwallaResearch AnalystMLI (UK)+44 20 7996 1027mohit.agarwalla@bofa.com High-yieldfunds recorded their seventh week of consecutive outflows, despite HY ETFsrecording inflows last week. We note that the pace of HY outflows has significantlyslowed. Regionally, Global- and European-focussed funds underperformed significantly,recording outflows, while US-focussed HY funds saw inflows, following significantoutflows in the past three weeks. Weekly fund flows data across assets Source:EPFR Global. In $mn; week ending 23rdApril. Data refers to European domiciled funds,except for EM debt funds that refer to global. SomeIG funds can also allocate to government bonds. Notethat IG funds are also split into other currencies awayfrom Euro, USD and GBP. Government bondfunds recorded inflows, following the marginal outflow over theprevious week.Money marketfunds recorded notable outflows, following three weeksof sizable inflows.Global EM debtrecorded marginal inflows. Overall,fixed incomefunds flows managed to flip back into positive territory last week, across IG, Gov’t andEM debt funds.Equityfunds saw yet another week of sizable inflows. BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 6 to 8. Flow chartbook Weekly Flow Distributions per asset class Exhibit 2:Distribution of IG fund flows ($mn) over the past weekLess evident left tails in IG flow distributions amid marginal inflows Monthly and weekly flows per asset class Exhibit 5: Investment grade monthly inflows/outflowsMarch 2025’s quarterly average has been $7.6bn, still firmly positive but not Exhibit 4: Investment-grade weekly inflows/outflowsLast week’s 4wk average has been -$3.1bn. as strong as recent history Exhibit 6: High-yield weekly inflows/outflowsLast week’s 4wk average has been -$2.9bn; the trend is clearly deteriorating March 2025’s quarterly average has been $17mn Exhibit 8: Equities weekly inflows/outflowsLast week’s 4wk average has been $1.9bn, slowly rising. Balancing flowsIn this section we focus on the largest asset managers (AM) across fixed income markets. Those who have at least $1 billion in total net assets in each (European-domiciled funds) pocket of high-grade, high-yield and government bond market space.The top 15 asset managers in each of the three asset classes were chosen to form thepool of 27 AMs presented in this analysis. Exhibit 12: Slight preference for gov’t debt Cumulative Flow (% AUM) High-grade funds have seen inflows YTD of +0.6% High-yield funds have seen inflows YTD of -3.8% HY Flows by Fund Focus US-focused HY funds recorded inflows last week. while the rest had outflows DisclosuresImportant Disclosures BofA Global Research Credit Opinion KeyBofA Global Research provides recommendations on an issuer’s bonds (including corporate and sovereign external debt securities), loans, capital securities, equity preferreds and CDS as described below. Convertible securities are not rated. An issuer level recommendation may also be provided for an issuer as explained below. BofA Global Research credit recommendations areassigned using a three-month time horizon.Issuer Recommendations: If an issuer credit recommendation is provided, it is applicable to bonds and capital securities of the issuer except bonds and capital securities specifically referenced in the report with a different credit recommendation. Where there is no issuer credit recommendation, only individual bonds and capital securities with specific recommendations are covered.Loans, CDS and equity preferreds are rated separately and issuer recommendations do not apply to them. BofA Global Re