亚洲交易时段美元大量抛售

GlobalNorth America A lot of dollar selling in Asia hours Rohini Grover, Ph.D.Strategist+44-20-75475907 The dollar has dramatically weakened in April. We have written about themedium-term macro shifts that are likely driving this weakness, but what is also interestingis the market micro-structure of recent price action. Ouranalysis of intraday FXmoves reveals that the bulk of April dollar weakness (close to 90% ) has materializedduring the Asian trading session. To be sure, some of this may be related to thetiming of newsflow, with a lot of US administration announcements coming verylate in the day over the last few weeks. Still, the scale of this underperformance isnotable both in terms of breadth of currencies (Figure3) and compared to otherasset classes (Figure4). The recent dollar rout was most pronounced against EURand NZD. Comparing across asset classes between April 2nd (reciprocal tariffannouncement) and April 9th (tariff postponement), US equities significantlyunderperformed FX and US rates. But while other asset classes rebounded after the9th, the USD has continued to decline during the Asian trading session. Avijit NandyResearch Associate George SaravelosStrategist+44-20-754-79118 We have been writing about the risks of de-dollarization theme for a while. Intra-dayprice action in the USD suggests that investors based out of Asia may be providingthe greatest supply of dollars to the market over the last few weeks. We will befollowing intra-day FX patterns closely to see whether these trends persist orbroaden out to other time zones. More details on our intra-day framework can beseen in ourFX Intraday Seasonality Monitor. 24 April 2025FX Blog Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies,and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research, please visit our globaldisclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from withinthis report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or viewin this report. Rohini Grover, George Saravelos. 24 April 2025FX Blog Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively 'DeutscheBank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to bereliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to third-party websites in thisreport are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content nor is responsible for theaccuracy or security controls of those websites. If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in this report, oris included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Bank may act asprincipal for its own account or as agent for another person. Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for its own accountor with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others within Deutsche Bank,including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those taken in this researchreport. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of communication may differ fromrecommendations contained in others, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, perspectives orotherwise. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliates may also be holding debt or equity securities of the issuers it writes on. Analystsare paid in part based on the profitability of Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliates, which includes investment banking, tradingand principal trading revenues. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report. They do notnecessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice. Deutsche Bank provides liquidityfor buyers and sellers of securities issued by the companies it covers