人工智能发展分析报告

By Mark Purdy and Paul Daugherty 2 | Why artificial intelligence is the future of growthCONTENTSThe new factor of production 4Three channels of AI-led growth 12Factoring in AI 15Clearing the path to an AI future 21 3 | Why artificial intelligence is the future of growthThere has been marked decline in the ability of increases in capital investment and in labor to propel economic progress. These two levers are the traditional drivers of production, yet they are no longer able to sustain the steady march of prosperity enjoyed in previous decades in most developed economies. But long-term pessimism is unwarranted. With the recent convergence of a transformative set of technologies, economies are entering a new era in which artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to overcome the physical limitations of capital and labor and open up new sources of value and growth. Increases in capital and labor are no longer driving the levels of economic growth the world has become accustomed to and desires. Fortunately, a new factor of production is on the horizon, and it promises to transform the basis of economic growth for countries across the world.Indeed, Accenture analyzed 12 developed economies and found that AI has the potential to double their annual economic growth rates by 2035.To avoid missing out on this opportunity, policy makers and business leaders must prepare for, and work toward, a future with artificial intelligence. They must do so not with the idea that AI is simply another productivity enhancer. Rather, they must see AI as the tool that can transform our thinking about how growth is created. 4 | Why artificial intelligence is the future of growthThat missing element is how new technologies affect growth in the economy. Traditionally, capital and labor are the “factors of production” that drive growth in the economy (see Figure 5). Growth occurs when the stock of capital or labor increase, or when they are used more efficiently. The growth that comes from innovations and technological change in the economy is captured in total factor productivity (TFP). Economists have always thought of new technologies as driving growth through their ability to enhance TFP. This made sense for the technologies that we have seen until now. The great technological breakthroughs over the last century—electricity, railways and IT—boosted productivity dramatically but did not create entirely new workforces. Given this poor outlook, commentators say that a stagnant economy is the “new normal.” On an even more pessimistic note, economist Robert Gordon argues that productivity growth over the next quarter century will continue at the sluggish pace we have experienced since 2004.1 He believes that the past two centuries of “Great Inventions,” such as the steamship and telegraph, are unlikely to be repeated. And this deficit of innovation, combined with unfavorable demographic trends, flagging educational attainment and rising wealth inequality, will slow economic progress. So, are we experiencing the end of growth and prosperity as we know it? As grim as much of the data undoubtedly is, it misses an important part of the story. THE NEW FACTOR OF PRODUCTION Across the globe, rates of gross domestic product (GDP) growth have been shrinking. Moreover, this has been true for three decades. Key measures of economic efficiency are trending sharply downward, while labor-force growth across the developed world is largely stagnant. It is even in decline in some countries (see Figures 1 to 4). 5 | Why artificial intelligence is the future of growthSimilarly, AI can take the form of physical capital such as robots and intelligent machines. And unlike conventional capital, such as machines and buildings, it can actually improve over time, thanks to its self-learning capabilities. Based on our analysis and modeling, we can illustrate what happens when AI is seen as a new factor of production rather than just a productivity enhancer. The impact on projected growth for the United States, for example, is dramatic. As Figure 6 shows, the first scenario is business-as-usual, assuming no AI effect. The second indicates the traditional view of AI as a TFP enhancer where it has a limited impact on growth. The third scenario shows what happens when AI can act as a new factor of production—there is a transformative effect on growth. This ability of AI to complement and enhance traditional factors of production is where its true potential lies.Today, we are witnessing the take-off of another transformative set of technologies, commonly referred to as artificial intelligence (see “What is artificial intelligence?”). Many see AI as similar to past technological inventions. If we believe this, then we can expect some growth, but nothing transformational. But what if AI has the potential to be not just another driver of TFP, but an entirely new factor of production? How can this be? The key i