采取措施对抗宏观经济逆风

Thermo Fisher (TMO US) Taking measures to counteract macro headwinds Target PriceUS$526.00(Previous TPUS$690.00)Up/Downside21.9%Current PriceUS$431.64 Thermo Fisher (TMO) reported its 1Q25 results, with revenue rising 0.2%YoYtoUS$10.4bn and adjusted EPS up0.8%YoYtoUS$5.15. Revenue and adjustedEPS exceeded Bloomberg consensusby 1.3%and 0.8%, respectively. Note that1Q25 had two fewer selling days compared to 1Q24, negatively impactinggrowthacross all segments by ~1-2%. Despite macro headwinds oftariffs andchangesin US domestic policies(e.g., NIH funding),mgmt.maintained its full-year revenueguidanceat themidpoint, projecting revenue growth of 1.0% to 3.1% for 2025.However, theCompany revised its adjusted EPS guidance downward,expectinga range from a0.6% decline to 4.4% growth,mainly due tothe impact of tariffs. Jill WU,CFA(852) 3900 0842jillwu@cmbi.com.hk Steady underlying demandformost of TMO’s businesses.From anend-market perspective, the pharma and biotech end-marketachieved low-single-digit growth, despite a 2pptsnegative impact from declining vaccine andtherapy-relatedrevenues. Growth in this end-market was driven bypharmaservices (CDMO)andbioproduction, as well asresearch and safety marketchannel. Conversely, revenues fromacademic and government end-marketdeclined byalowsingledigit, due toUS policy changes whichprimarilyaffected equipment sales. Mgmt.anticipates this factor alone will reducerevenueguidancebyUS$500mn. Geographically, North Americaand Europerecorded flat andlow single-digit growth,respectively, while Asia-Pacific sawlow single-digit growth, includinga mid-single-digit declineinChinamarket. Benchen HUANG, CFAhuangbenchen@cmbi.com.hk Impact of tariffs.1)Elevated tariffs between the US and China are expectedto significantly reduce bilateral trade, withmgmt.incorporating aUS$400mnreduction intorevenue guidance.2)However, broader US tariffswilllead to aweakeningUS dollar, positivelycontributingUS$600mn to revenue guidance.3)Tariffs are expected to reduce the adjusted operatingmargin by 1.2ppts.Adjusted EPS guidance hasalso been lowered byUS$1.0, withUS$0.7ofthat directly attributable to tariffs.4)Nevertheless, tariffs willcreatenew mid-to long-term opportunities for TMO by leveraging its US-based manufacturingfacilities. Strategicmeasurestonavigatemacrochallenges.TMOisactivelyimplementing measures to address macrochallenges, including supply chainrealignment,activecostmanagement,andappropriatepriceincreases.Mgmt.emphasized TMO's global manufacturing footprint as a competitiveadvantage to enablefaster capacity adjustments compared to smaller peers.To support long-term growth and expand market share, TMO announcedplansto investUS$2bnoverthe nextfouryearsin expanding itsUSmanufacturing and R&D facilities, in response to growing customer demand. Source: FactSet Maintain BUY.Due to our concerns on the increasing macro uncertainties,werevise downforecastson TMO.Now we forecast its revenue to grow by2.2%/ 5.2%/ 8.1% YoY andadjusted EPS to increase by 2.5%/ 11.9%/ 13.3%YoY in 2025E/ 26E/ 27E, respectively. Hence, wecut our DCF-basedTP fromUS$690 toUS$526(WACC: 7.45%, terminal growth: 2.00%).Bloombergconsensus are higher than ourforecastson revenue while lower on adjustedEPS,reflecting our conservative viewon bottom-line. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect tothe securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potentialreturn of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsGlobal MarketsLim