行业展望（2022年4月）

INDUSTRYHORIZON April 2022 War in Ukraine, tougher sanctions, and more retaliatory measures increaseconcerns over inflation and economic growth, raised risk of global stagflation The US and EU have targeted Russia’s financial systemand have started to ban its energy exports Russia’s GDP is the 12th largest in the world, about 25% smaller thanItaly.However, Russian energy exports are important as it is the world’ssecond largest exporter of natural gas and one of the largestexporters of oil.Russia produces 10% of global oil and supplies 40% of Europe's gas.It is the world's largest grains and fertilizer exporter, top palladiumand nickel producer, third-largest exporter of coal and of steel, andfifth-largest wood exporter.Cutting off those exports could drive upenergy and other commodity prices. The impact of the Ukraine war on Thai industrial outlook dependingon the severity and duration of sanctions and war Russia-Ukraine crisis could hurt economic and industrial outlook viafour main channels:trade & logistics, energy security, prices &inflation, and income effect & capital markets Limited direct impact viatrade channelbut indirect impact could besignificant; war in Ukraine is pressuring globalenergy security Indirect impact via trade channel could be significant if Russia is stoppedfrom exporting raw materials and energy; this would push up oil pricesand logistics cost. Russia is one of the world’s largest exporters of oil and natural gas.Russia supplies 40% of Europe's gas. Cutting off those exportscould raise concerns over global energy security. Russiaistheworld'slargestgrainsandfertilizersexporter,toppalladiumandnickelproducer,third-largestexporterofcoalandofsteel,andfifth-largestwoodexporter KrungsriResearch estimates a 1% (or 1m bpd) drop inglobal oil supply would push up oil price by 7.5% inthe first 2 quarters and by 4% in the long run. Note: Estimated by Krungsri Research Risinginflationwould hurt purchasing power and slow consumptionrecovery;negative income effectand high market volatility wouldalso hurt trade and tourism The Ukraine crisis could hurt income growth in many countries,especially in Europe, and falling asset prices could hit householdwealth. There could be indirect impact on trade and tourism. A surge in oil and other commodity prices would raise inflationpressure, hit countries with high weighting of food and energyin their inflation basket Among emerging economies,Thailanddepends heavily on oilimports and the war will translate to be upward pressure onproduction cost for industries especially energy-reliant sectors Constructionis the top loser, followed by transportation due tohigher costs; top gainers are oil & gas, sugar and textiles due toprice hikes and trade diversion Thaiindustrialsectorsthatarelikelytoexperienceasignificantlevelofimpactswillincludeconstruction,transport,oilrefining,maritimeshipping,andrealestate,allofwhichwillhavetocontendwithhigherprices,especiallyfrommetalsandtheenergyprices.However,thesesamehigherpricestakentogetherwithtradediversionwillmeanthatsomeindustrieswilllikelybenefitfromstrongeroutput.Thisgroupisexpectedtoincludeproducersofoilandnaturalgas,sugarprocessors,andmanufacturersofclothing,electronicsandleatherware. ConstructionContractor:Coming under pressure from the risingcosts of construction materials and transportation, amplifyingproblems with labor shortages BecauseRussiaistheworld’s2ndmostimportantexporterofoil(asof2020),whileUkraineandRussiaarethesourceofacombined12%oftheworld’ssteel(atotalof47mtonnes),theoutbreakofwarhasseriouslyaffectedsuppliesofthesetwocommoditiestoglobalmarketswithknock-oneffectsforthepriceofoilandofconstructionmaterials.ThishasthenimpactedtheThaiconstructionsector,addingtopre-existingproblemsastheindustrystruggledtorecoverfromlaborshortagesprecipitatedbytheCOVID-19pandemic.Thus,over1Q22,thepriceofconstructionsteelrosesharply,withthecostofrebarjumping25.3%YoYtoTHB27,446/tonnesandchannelclimbingattheevenfasterrateof37.5%YoYtohitTHB36,046/tonnes.Alongsidethis,theindexofpricesforconcreteandcementwerealsoupby5.7%and4.8%(steel,concreteandcementaccountforrespectively23%,16%and13%ofcostsintheconstructionsector). Contractorswillhavetoshoulderelevatedpricesforoilandconstructionmaterialsthroughout2022,especiallythemostproblematicduring2Q22,whenpricesshouldpeak.Assuch,smalleroperatorswillbeatriskofbecominginsolventandofbeingforcedtogiveupconstructioncontracts.Moreover,thoseworkingongovernmentcontractshaveyettoreceivecompensationpaymentsforthesehighercosts,thatisthe‘escalationfactor’or‘Kvalue’,andtheaccumulatedvalueofthisisnowconsiderable(source:ThaiContractorsAssociation,Thansettakit,2April2022).Contractorsworkingintheprivatesectorhavetheadvantageofbeingabletoraisethepricesforfinishedhomesandsoofpassingonthesehighercoststoendconsumers,buttheroomfordoingthisislimitedbytheonlyslowrecoveryinpurchasingpower.TheThaiHouseBuildersAssociationthusseeshousingpricesrisingby5-8%fromApril2022,giventhesteadyincreaseinconst