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行业展望（2023年7月）

信息技术2023-07-27泰国大城银行研究中心故***

AI智能总结

INDUSTRYHORIZON - July 2023 Half Year Updates

Automobile

Production and domestic sales expected to grow slowly with periodic supply disruptions due to tech war impacts through 2023.
1H23 output rose 5.91% YoY, with passenger vehicle production up 26.52% YoY and commercial vehicle output down 6.31% YoY.
Domestic sales contracted 4.95% YoY to 406,131 vehicles, while exports jumped 17.61% YoY to 528,816 vehicles.
2023 production, domestic sales, and exports expected to grow by 2.0-3.0% and 4.0-5.0% respectively.

EVs

EV adoption grew faster in 1H23, especially for BEVs, supported by government subsidies and tax incentives.
1H23 EV passenger car registrations increased 102% YoY to 83,546, with BEV registrations up 948.5% YoY.
EV car registrations expected to continue rising in 2H23, potentially reaching 140k cars by end-2023.

Integrated Circuit (IC)

Export value expected to grow slowly in 2023, with chip shortages persisting through 2023 before easing in 2024.
5M23 global semiconductor market contracted 20.6% YoY due to high inflation and global slowdown.
Chip shortages forecast to affect market periodically through 2023 due to US-China tensions.

Petrochemical

Business expected to improve steadily with overall economic recovery and increasing demand from downstream industries.
Domestic demand forecast to strengthen gradually, with exports up by some 10-14% by volume.

Refinery

Business expected to benefit from improving economic activities, especially from a brighter outlook for the tourism sector and rising investment in clean energy.
Gross refining margins expected to narrow from USD 13/bbl in 2022 to USD 6-6.5/bbl in 2023.

Power Generation

Income expected to rise on stronger demand for electricity alongside a fall in production costs.
2023 demand predicted to expand by 3.8-4.3%, up from growth of 3.6% in 2022.

Chilled, Frozen, and Processed Chicken Industry

Domestic sales expected to support stronger domestic sales, with exports expanding in both core and new markets.

Chilled, Frozen, and Processed Seafood Industry

Domestic sales expected to be depressed by consumer preference for fresh products, while weak consumer spending power in overseas markets will encourage buyers to source products from lower-cost exporters.

Beverages Industry

Domestic market remains a key driver of growth, benefiting from the recovery in the restaurant trade, the rebound in the tourism sector, and the impact of higher temperatures.

Digital Services and Software

Income expected to grow strongly on greater use of learning algorithms on digital platforms to respond to users' individual needs, while enterprises will increasingly use cloud-based software to minimize resource use and meet ESG goals.

Construction & Construction Materials

Slow growth expected in 2023 due to a combination of only gradual recovery in private-sector construction and political uncertainty that may cause delays to some infrastructure projects.

Housing (BMR)

Housing market expected to strengthen on improving real demand and the return of foreign purchasing power.

Office Building (BMR)

Occupancy rate expected to remain low due to pressure from growth in total supply that will continue to outpace demand.

Hotel

28-29 million foreign arrivals forecast for 2023, keeping the occupancy rate at 67-68%.

Private Hospital

Businesses expected to benefit from the return of overseas patients, while players will tend to look to new markets to expand income streams.

Modern Trade

Industry expected to benefit from strengthening domestic consumer spending power and the rising number of foreign tourists coming to the country.

Road Transport Services

Players expected to benefit from the rebound in the tourism sector and growth in e-commerce sales.

Sea Freight Services

Businesses expected to benefit from the recovery in the Thai economy and China's reopening.

El Niño Impacts on Agriculture

Consequences include higher temperatures, disruptions to rainfall and intermittent dry spells, lower than average overall rainfall, and reduced access to water from reservoirs and aquifers.

CBAM Effects on Industry

EU-CBAM entering the transition period in October 2023, meaning exporters, especially in the iron and steel; and aluminum sectors, are facing emission measurement and reporting costs.

Appendix

Detailed analysis of the impact of drought on the wider economy and the structure of agricultural supply chains.

INDUSTRYHORIZON July 2023 Half year updates El Niño impacts on agriculture CBAM effects on industry Appendix Automobile:Productionanddomesticsalesareexpectedtogrowataslowpacewithperiodicalsupplydisruptionduetothetechwarimpactsthrough2023,whileexportsexpandonapent-updemandfrommajormarkets. In 1H23, output of autos rose 5.91% YoYto 921,512 vehicles, due mostly to a 26.52% YoY increase in the production of passenger vehicles, while output of commercialvehicles slipped-6.31% YoY dueto the remaining short supply of chips needed in pickups. Meanwhile, despite a 9.0% YoY increase in sales of passenger vehicles,total domestic sales contracted-4.95% YoYto 406,131 vehicles, from a11.4% YoY fall in pickup sales, resulting fromi) tighter credit approval to control rising NPLs for auto hire-purchase (+4.7% YoY in 1Q23) and ii) rising interest rates causing weak purchasing power amidstill-high household debt. However,exports jumped 17.61% YoYto 528,816 vehicles as manufacturers tried to clear the backlog of unfilled orders. Export growth was especially strong in the mainmarkets e.g., the EU (+104.7% YoY), Japan (+33.6% YoY), and ASEAN (+30.9% YoY), while exports to the US declined-86.4% YoY dueto the impacts of economic slowdown and rising inflation. During the second half of 2023, auto production would continue to growas the intensity of global chip shortages appears to be gradually easing. However, the presence of the tech war, particularlybetween the US and China, remains a concern and could possibly disrupt the supply chain and delay the production process of somesegments.Domestic sales willimprovesupported by (i) ongoinggrowth in the economic activities and the recovery of tourism; (ii) continuing government support for the purchase and use ofBEVs; and (iii) a better outlook for the construction, online retail, andlogistics industries that will help improve demand for commercial vehicles.Exports will continue to growthanks to pent-up demand from some major trading partners especially the EU and ASEAN.However, export growth would be limited by some headwinds including the global economic slowdown and high costs of living, barriers to trade with export markets, and the move by many countries tophase out sales of vehicles powered by internal combustion engines (ICE).For the whole year 2023, the automotive industry is expected to experience expansion of production by 2.0-3.0%, domesticsales by 2.0-3.0%, and exports by 4.0-5.0%. EVs:TheadoptionofEVsin1H23grewremarkablyfasterthanpastyears,especiallyforBEV,supportedmainlybygovernment’ssubsidyprogramsandtaxincentives. In 1H23,the total EV (including BEV, HEV, and PHEV) passenger car registrations increased to 83,546, from 41,441 cars in 1H22 (+102%YoY).The number of new EV cars on Thai roads in 1H23 wascomparable to that of the whole year of 2022, implying a significantly faster adoption by Thai consumers.Among these, the new BEV registration in 1H23 jumped 948.5% YoY to 31,517 cars,outnumbered the BEV registrations in the past 5 years combined. This has brought their market share up to 8.3% of the total passenger car sales, sharply increasing from1.5%in 2022 (compared to thegovernment’s target of 4% in 2022). Stimulus measures from the government (EV subsidies and tax incentives) and improving ecosystem (expanding charging stations) play a vital role in BEV demandgrowth in 2022-2023. The EV car registration is expected to continue rising in 2H23and approaching 140k cars at the end of 2023mainly due tothegovernment’s support programs, favorable EV ecosystem and supplychain, and various choices of models from many brands coming out to the market.With the faster rate of adoption, the BEV share will potentially be close to the target of 30% in 2025. Besides, theshare of BEVregistrations would surpass those of HEVs before 2030. Another concern is the insufficient number of public EV charging stations.EVAT reported that as of May 2023, there were just 4,628 charging points across Thailand, which needed to serve88,154registered PHEVs and BEVs (as of May 2023), or a ratio of charging points to EVs of 1:19. This is still insufficient and farbehind the ratio of 1:6.5 in China. Moreover, the EV market is still significantlydriven by EV subsidy programs which could be impacted by the government transition and delayed budgets for the Fiscal Year 2024(Oct 2023–Sep 2024). Integrated circuit (IC):Export value is expected to grow at a slow pace in 2023, while chipshortages will persist through 2023 before easing in 2024. In5M23,thevalueoftheglobalmarketforsemiconductorscontracted-20.6%YoY,duetohighinflationandaglobalslowdownthathasaffectedpurchasingpowerinthemainmarketsforICsandthroughthis,lowereddemandforelectronicgoods,especiallyforPCs,forwhichglobalsalesdeclined-16.6%YoYin2Q23.Asaresult,thevalueofICsexportedbyThaimanufacturersinchedupbyjust0.5%YoY,inlinewiththe5M23-3.9%YoYfallintheICManufacturingProductionIndex(MPI).However,weakeningglobaldemandforelectronicsgoodshel

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