每周经济评论

Markets see a brighter global outlook; Central banks signal policy change this year; Some parts of China's economy show signsofimprovement. US China Japan The outlook is improving for some parts of the Chineseeconomy, but with unemployment edging up, domesticdemandis slowing.G During January and February,growth in the manufacturing sector rose from 6.8% YoY inDecember to a 2-year high of 7%, although expansion intheservice sector slowed from 8.1%to 5.5%,with thisdriven mainly by 12.1% growth in accommodation, food,andbeverages.Fixed asset investment grew 4.2%,upfrom 3%, but investment in real estate contracted 9% andexcludingthis from the figures brings growth of fixedassetsinvestment to 8.9%,aided by infrastructurespendingand high-tech industries.Retail sales growthwas also up 5.5% YoY, though this was down from 7.2%.However, urban unemployment rose from 5.1% to 5.3%,and among 16-24-year-olds not in education, this climbedfrom 14.6% to 15.3%. The BOJ has raised rates for the first time in17years,indicating the official exit from its deflationary slump.At its latest meeting, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) agreed toraisethe policy rate from-0.1%to 0.0-0.1%and toabandon yield curve controls (YCC). This follows largewage increases,2.8% YoY core inflation (its23rdmonthnorth of the2% target) and2.8% YoY headline inflation(its highest in4months). Having expanded1.2% a monthearlier,industrial output contracted-6.7%MoM inJanuary, but at7.8% YoY, February’s increase in exportsextended January’s growth of11.9%. Fedrevises up its growth and inflation forecastsand its Dot Plot indicates three rate cuts this year.In February, existing home sales rose9.5% MoM to4.38m units, the fastest growth in 11 months. Also,the Leading Economic Index (LEI) edged up for thefirst time in2 years, climbing 0.1% MoM. The FlashManufacturing PMI rose from52.2to a21-month highof52.5in March. Initial jobless claims fell by2,000to210,000on the week ended March16, below marketexpectations of215,000. Althoughthe labor market has cooled,positiveindicators are still being seen in: (i) the sharpestincrease in sales of existing homes in11months; (ii)thereturnoftheManufacturingPMItoexpansionary territory; (iii) the first rise in the LEIsince February2022; and (iv) the revision by theFed of its2024growth forecasts from1.4% to2.1%.There is thus only a limited risk of the US entering arecession, and we expect that with inflation falling(this is forecast to fall below3% in Q3) and signs ofa broader slowdown expected to begin showing upin2H24, the Fed is likely to begin the next cycle ofrate cuts at its mid-year meeting. Strong exports and an improving outlook for privateconsumption will drive2024growth. This is reflected inthestrongest rise in exports in a year,whileconsumption will improve from Q2onwards followingtheconclusion of the annual Shunto negotiations,underwhich corporations have agreed 5.25%wagehikes, the highest in33years. The latter will help to liftrealwages into positive territory in mid-year.Inaddition,although the BOJ decided to raise policyratesand abandon yield curve controls,monetarypolicyremains accommodative and with the realinterest rate at between-2% and-3%, the economywill continue to benefit through the coming period. Although signs of a rebound are still not visible in therealestatesector,overallimprovementsinmanufacturingand investment indicate a recovery insomeparts of the economy.This may encourage thegovernment to hold off on targeted stimulus measures.However,slowing retail sales growth and risingunemploymentmay delay a recovery in domesticdemand,whichmayundercutexpansioninthemanufacturing and service sectors in the period ahead. Public-sector disbursements will accelerate followingthepassingofFY2024budgetbillanditsenforcement from April onwards.On 22 March,theFY2024 annual budget, worth a total of THB 3.48trn,passedits 2nd and 3rd readings in the House ofRepresentatives. The budget will now be debated inthe Senate on 26 March and assuming it passes thathurdle,it will only then require royal assent beforebecominglaw.This is now expected to happen inearly April. The Ministry of Finance is drafting new measures to helptargetedgroups secure soft loans from state-backedfinancial institutions, while the Digital Wallet Board willmeet in mid-April.The Ministry of Finance has announcedthat Specialized Financial Institutions (SFIs) are preparing apackageof measures that will offer low-interest loansthrough5projects. These will be presented to the cabinetat thestart of April and will consist of:(i) loans madethrough‘IGNITE THAILAND’to businesses active in theareasof tourism,health and wellness,and food;(ii)emergency loans for government welfare recipients; (iii)loans for improvements to manufacturing productivity; (iv)home loans for government employees; and (v) loans forexport-based startups. Each of these includes measurestocover reductions to interest rates,debt suspension,and debt restructuring. Datafrom the Ministry of Fin