每周经济评论

Global Economy Summary

Japan:

• Yen weakened to 33-year low, reaching JPY 155.78 against USD.
• Wage growth slowed to 0.6% YoY in March, household spending contracted -1.2% YoY.
• Expected slow growth in 1H24, with improving performance in Q2.
• Factors: highest wage hike in 3 decades, tourism sector rebound, stronger export recovery, accommodative monetary policy.
• BOJ may adjust policy if yen weakness impacts inflation and economy, but not seen as aggressive rate hike.

US Economy:

• Signs of slowdown, with services PMI weakened to 5-month low.
• Initial jobless claims rose to 231,000, consumer sentiment index fell to 5-month low of 67.4.
• Inflation expectations rising to 3.5% from 3.2% in previous month.
• Eurozone inflation at 2.4%, US inflation at 3.5%, suggesting ECB may start rate cuts ahead of Fed.

Eurozone:

• Retail sales returned to growth in March, service PMI rose to highest in almost a year.
• Composite PMI in expansionary territory for 2 months, supported by service sector strength.
• Inflation close to 2.0% target, supporting real income and consumption.
• Economic confidence increasing since October 2023.

China:

• Domestic consumption fragile, trade tensions threaten manufacturing and exports.
• Per capita spending during long holiday fell 11.5% from pre-Covid level.
• Consumer confidence 28% lower than in 2019, unemployment high among young people.
• Exports grew 1.5% YoY in April, but exports of new industries shrank 18.5% YoY.
• Potential tariff hikes from trade tensions may hinder manufacturing sector recovery.