人工智能与欧洲生产力

Artificial Intelligence andProductivity in Europe Florian Misch, Ben Park, Carlo Pizzinelli and Galen Sher WP/25/67 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025APR IMF Working Paper [European Department] Artificial Intelligence and Productivity in EuropePrepared by Florian Misch*, Ben Park, Carlo Pizzinelli and Galen Sher** Authorized for distribution by Stephan Danninger and Kristina KostialMonth 2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:The discussion on Artificial Intelligence (AI) often centers around its impact on productivity, butmacroeconomic evidence for Europe remains scarce. Using the Acemoglu (2024) approach we simulate themedium-term impact of AI adoption on total factor productivity for 31 European countries. We compile manyscenarios by pooling evidence on which tasks will be automatable in the near term, using reduced-formregressions to predict AI adoption across Europe, and considering relevant regulation that restricts AI useheterogeneously across tasks, occupations and sectors. We find that the medium-term productivity gains forEurope as a whole are likely to be modest, at around 1 percent cumulatively over five years. Whileeconomcially still moderate, these gains are still larger than estimates by Acemoglu (2024) for the US. Theyvary widely across scenarios and countries and are sustantially larger in countries with higher incomes.Furthermore, we show that national and EU regulations around occupation-level requirements, AI safety, anddata privacy combined could reduce Europe’s productivity gains by over 30 percent if AI exposure were 50percent lower in tasks, occupations and sectors affected by regulation. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Misch, F., Park, B., Pizzinelli, C. and Sher, G. (2025). Artificial Intelligence andProductivity in Europe. IMF Working Paper WP/25/67 Artificial Intelligence andProductivity in Europe Prepared by Florian Misch1, Ben Park, Carlo Pizzinelli and Galen Sher2 Contents 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 32. Stylized Facts .................................................................................................................................................. 63. Methodology.................................................................................................................................................... 64. Results ............................................................................................................................................................. 84.1 Variation in Medium-term Productivity Gains ............................................................................................ 84.2 Preferred Scenario ...................................................................................................................................... 124.3 The Role of Regulation ............................................................................................................................... 155. Conclusions and Policy Implications.......................................................................................................... 16Appendix 1: Sample and Country-Specific Data............................................................................................ 18Appendix 2: AI Exposure of Tasks and Occupations.................................................................................... 19Appendix 3: AI Adoption Rate ......................................................................................................................... 22Appendix 4: Labor Cost Savings from AI ....................................................................................................... 28Appendix 5: National Occupation Regulation ................................................................................................ 29Appendix 6: EU AI Act ...................................................................................................................................... 30Appendix 7: Data Privacy Laws ....................................................................................................................... 31References......................................................................................................................................................... 32 1. Introduction Artificial intelligence (AI) is often seen as a general-pu