The Future of Growth Report 2024

I N S I G H TR E P O R TJ A N U A R Y2 0 2 4 Contents Preface3 Executive summary4 Introduction6 1.1 From the growth we have to the growth we need1.2 Overview of framework construction1.3 Trade-offs, synergies and policy choices8911 2.1 Globalresults2.2 Results by pillar2.3 Growth Pathway Archetypes131828 Conclusion35 3 Country Dashboards36 Appendix A: Methodology251 A1 Framework design criteriaA2 Indicator selectionA3 NormalizationA4 AggregationA5 Clustering251251251252252 Appendix B: Indicator details254 B1 Framework overviewB2 Country groupsB3 Indicator selectionB4 Indicator descriptionB5 Normalization254256259265277 Contributors280 Endnotes289 Disclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insightarea or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whoseresults do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety ofits Members, Partners or other stakeholders. © 2024 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may bereproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system. Preface Saadia ZahidiManaging Director,World Economic Forum challenges. These archetypes offer potential policyinspiration for countries with similar constraintsand opportunities. Finally, the framework allows fordeveloping a global picture: while global averagesmask significant disparities between countries,reflecting diverse policy priorities and implementationoutcomes, our analysis reveals that the globaleconomy is only halfway towards combiningtoday’s growth with longer-term innovativeness,inclusiveness, sustainability and resilience. Global growth has lost momentum. On average,GDP growth has declined from more than 2% inadvanced economies and nearly 6% in emerging anddeveloping economies in the early 2000s to less than1.5% and less than 2% in the post-COVID period. This sustained slowdown in growth has beencompounded by a succession of crises. It isnow more than 15 years since the beginningof the global financial crisis, yet it continues tocast a shadow, not least in the policy choicesof many advanced economies. The COVID-19pandemic and the shock of lockdowns left behindan aftermath of a surge in public debt levelsand reversal of global development progress.Geopolitical tensions and conflicts have furtherreshaped an international order that is increasinglymultipolar, with far-reaching implicationsfor technology, growth and development.Overshadowing these developments is the growingawareness that the world’s rising temperatureposes grave dangers to the long-term prospectsfor humanity, with the world currently on track for atemperature rise significantly above the targets setout in the Paris Agreement in 2015. This work builds upon and owes a particular debtto the Forum’sGlobal Competitiveness Index,which has long espoused taking a comprehensiveapproach to growth and productivity. Since 2020,we have engaged in extensive consultations ondeveloping a new conceptual framework fit for a newglobal context. We would like to thank, in particular,the members of the Global Future Council on theFuture of Growth for their feedback, the dialoguesheld at the World Economic Forum’s inauguralGrowth Summit, and the views of the network ofPartner Institutes of the Forum that support datagathering for this framework and other insights fromthe Forum. Finally, we would like to express ourgratitude to the core team that developed this report–Jesse Caemmerer, Aengus Collins, Roberto Crotti,Philipp Grosskurth, Kateryna Karunska, Till Leopold,and Sriharsha Masabathula – and to Ricky Li andAttilio Di Battista for their support. The key question for this pivotal moment is notwhether the world still needs economic growth,but rather how that growth is achieved andwhether it is aligned with other important nationaland global priorities. This first edition of the WorldEconomic Forum’sFuture of Growth Reportaimsto provide an overview of global growth trends anda comprehensive analysis of the quality of thesegrowth trajectories. This report will serve as the basis for the work ofthe World Economic Forum’s Future of GrowthInitiative, using this framework as a foundation,atwo-year effort to foster dialogue between policy-makers, business leaders and academics oncharting new economic growth pathways. We inviteleaders to join this initiative, embracing the urgencyand ambition required to address the multifacetedchallenges outlined in this report. The Future of Growth Framework introduced inthis report underscores that a conventional GDPgrowth picture is incomplete without a deeperunderstanding of the underlying nature and qualityof growth. The framework adopts a multidimensionalapproach, structured around four pillars, tocompl