Climate Change Scenarios for the Health Sector

DISCLAIMER: This report presents future climate change scenarios for the health system, to support consideration of whatimpacts may need to be planned for and managed. The work was facilitated by Tonkin + Taylor (T+T), drawingon the input of individuals from various organisations across the health sector, including research institutes andacademia. It is emphasised that the scenarios in this report are purely hypothetical; they provide alternative views of thefuture to provoke consideration of what such scenarios could mean for the health system. While many organisations have supported the development of scenarios, it is emphasised that the report doesnot represent the views of any particular individual involved in the work, nor any organisation. The purpose of the report is to better enable organisations – given the importance of future planning – to identifywhat potential future scenarios could mean for them. As the scenarios are hypothetical, no data or commentshould be relied on by any party in drawing their own insights or making their own decisions. Individual partiesshould undertake their own analysis to develop specific views on how hypothetical future events, such as thosein this report, impact their own affairs. Climate changeis widely recognised as the single greatest threat to human health andwellbeing. Increasingly frequent and intense climate events have broad impacts on ourenvironments, placing greater stress on our health directly, as well as the health system’sability to provide services. Responding to climate change also presents opportunities and awide range of health co-benefits. Our visionis for a sustainable and resilient health system that delivers equitable healthoutcomes. Understanding and planning for the impacts of climate change risk andgreenhouse gas emissions reduction are a core dimension of high-quality healthcare. Insetting out sector climate scenarios, this document encourages those in the healthcare sectorto consider the risks and opportunities they face from a changing climate, and how theirsector or organisation could respond. Whiria to tangata.There has been a weaving together of the wide range views of the risksand opportunities for the sector and what the most relevant drivers are for us consider withinthese scenarios. We are grateful for all those that have contributed. Support was also provided by the Accident Compensation Corporation, Ministry of Health | Manatū Hauora, Māori Health Authority | Te Aka Whai Oraand Health New Zealand | Te Whatu Ora T+T was engaged to facilitate and support the development of the Sector Scenarios. Table of contents 1. Glossary and acronyms 1.1GLOSSARY ethnicity, social class, age, gender, sexualorientation, geographical location, exposureto abuse and neglect, and residency status.In relation to climate change, communitiesof need also include population groups thatare more vulnerable to the direct and indirectconsequences of climate change, includingpeople with pre-existing health conditions andpeople more exposed to climate hazards. Adaptation:The process of adjustment toactual or expected climate and its effects.1 Climate reporting entity (CRE):Climatereporting entities include those entitieswhich are required to issue climate-relateddisclosures under NZ legislation. Climate variable:A physical variable ora group of linked variables that criticallycontributes to the characterisation of earth’sclimate, including mean temperature,maximum and minimum temperatures, frostsor hot days, mean precipitation, dry days orvery wet days, droughts, storms, extreme windspeeds, circulation, solar radiation, relativehumidity, and mean sea-level pressure. Driving forces (‘drivers’):Driving forces (alsoknown as ‘drivers’) are typically broad scalefactors which influence the direction of futurechange. Understanding which driving forceswill have the greatest influence in shapingoutcomes for the sector is an essential step increating climate-related scenarios. External Reporting Board (XRB):NewZealand’s External Reporting Board, which issues national reporting standards for entitiesacross the private, public and not-for profitsectors. Climate-related disclosures:By providinga consistent framework for entities, climate-related disclosures (CRDs) enable primaryusers (e.g., shareholders) to assess how wellentities are assessing and managing theirclimate-related risks and opportunities andthe related financial impacts. If successful,CRDs would shift capital towards activitiesconsistent with an international transition to alow-emissions, climate resilient future. Hapū:A socio-political unit comprised of anumber of whānau (extended families). Hapūare usually genealogically bound units, thathave references to a defined geographicalterritory. These units ensured the socio-culturaland socio-political rights and interests of themembers. Climate-related scenario:A plausible,challenging description of how the future may develop based on a cohere