商品出口新兴和发展中国家的财政政策顺周期性与波动性

11037 Fiscal Policy Procyclicality and Volatilityin Commodity-Exporting Emergingand Developing EconomiesPublic Disclosure Authorized Determinants and Implications for Growth Francisco Arroyo MarioliGarima Vasishtha Development EconomicsProspects GroupJanuary 2025 Policy Research Working Paper11037 Abstract Over the past few decades, fiscal policy has been about 30percent more procyclical and about 40 percent more volatilein commodity-exporting emerging markets and devel-oping economies (EMDEs) than in other EMDEs. Bothprocyclicality and volatility of fiscal policy—which sharesome underlying drivers—hurt economic growth becausethey amplify business cycles. Structural policies, includingexchange rate flexibility and the easing of restrictions oninternational financial transactions, can help reduce bothfiscal procyclicality and fiscal volatility. By adopting aver-age advanced economy policies on exchange rate regimes, restrictions on cross-border financial flows, and the use offiscal rules, commodity-exporting EMDEs can increasetheir gross domestic product per capita growth by about1 percentage point every four to five years through thereduction in fiscal policy volatility. Such policies should besupported by sustainable, well-designed, and stability-ori-ented fiscal institutions that can help build buffers duringcommodity price booms to prepare for any subsequentslump in prices. A strong commitment to fiscal disciplineis critical for these institutions to be effective in achievingtheir objectives. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Fiscal Policy Procyclicality and Volatility in Commodity-Exporting Emerging and DevelopingEconomies: Determinants and Implications for Growth1* Francisco Arroyo Marioli and Garima Vasishtha JEL Classification: E62; F41; F44; H30; H50 I. Introduction Commodity-exporting emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs)face significant fiscalchallenges: Government debt in these countries has grown rapidly over the past decade—from about 33percent of GDP in 2010 to about 60.9 percent in 202, on average. Over the same period, their primaryfiscal deficit (which does not include interest payments) averaged about three times that of commodityimporters. Increased spending during the pandemic amplified the challenges confronting commodity-exporting EMDEs. The higher cost of servicing elevated debt levels, coupled with weaker growthprospects, is increasing the risk of debt distress among some of these economies (World Bank 2023). Alongwith the wide swings in commodity prices in recent years, these developments have brought to the forethe complex task of formulating fiscal policy in these economies (Figure 1.A). The main challenge faced by policy makers in commodity-exporting countries is coping with the swings incommodity prices. Commodities are important sources of export and fiscal revenues for almost two-thirdsof EMDEs, including three-fourths of low-income countries (LICs) (Figures 1.B and 1.C; World Bank 2022).Shocks to commodity prices are often large and persistent. Commodity prices have undergone frequentcycles over the past five decades, with the average cycle lasting almost six years (Figure 1.D). Price slumps,on average, lasted somewhat longer (39 months) than booms (30 months), with prices falling and risingby 1 to 4 percent per month over the course of the average cycle, respectively (World Bank 2022). Commodity dependence makes it harder for policy makers to formulate appropriate fiscal responses tocommodity price fluctuations. Fiscal policy tends to be more procyclical—that is, expansionary in goodtimes and contractionary in bad times—in commodity-exporting EMDEs than in other EMDEs.2Incommodity-exporting EMDEs, rising commodity prices can lead to procyclical increases in public spendingand tax cuts. Conversely, declines in commodity prices can trigger procyclical tax increases and cuts inpublic expenditures as a result of reduced revenues from commodity production and exports. Moreover,because tax cuts and increases in public spending are generally easier to implement and more difficult toreverse, politically, than tax increases and reductions in public spending, government deficits and debtpositions tend to ratchet up, deteriorating from cycle to cycle. This secular deterioration, in turn, will makeit more difficult to impl