信用增长不均衡

CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | EconomicPerspectives China Economy Unevenrecovery in credit growth Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk Credit growth startedto bottom out following the stimulus as social financing,medium & long-term loans to household and M2 growth rebounded, thanks tothe acceleration of government bonds financing and pick up in housing anddurable goods sales. However, credit demand in corporate sector remainedsluggish, with new loans and bond financing still contracting despite the policyeasing. Due to overcapacity and deflation pressure, private business capex wasweak. Looking forward, monetary policy might remain accommodative withpossible RRR cut by 50bps in 1H25. 2H25 is likely to see additional policy ratecuts by 20-30bps as Trump may launch another trade war and China’s currentpolicy stimulus effects may gradually diminish. Outstanding social financing andloans may pick up 8.2%and7.7% at end-2025 after rising 8% and 7.6% at end-2024 Bingnan YE, Ph.D(852) 3761 8967yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk Social financingand M2 bothrebounded.Outstanding social financinggrowth recovered to 8%YoY (all in YoY terms unless otherwise specified)inDec from 7.8%in Nov as itsflowskyrocketed 47.9%in Dec, better thanmarket expectation.Government bond financing was the major driver,rising 88.9% in Dec to RMB1.76tnafter growing 13.7% toRMB1.31tn inOct.Corporate bond financingturned negative to-RMB15.3bn in Dec, yetbetterthan its year ago level at-RMB274bn.M1 supply continued torecover from-3.7% to-1.4% as the housing and durable goods salesrebounded.M2bounced up from 7.1% to 7.3%, as government picked upspending. NewRMBloansnarrowed its decline as mortgage demand sharplyrebounded.Growth of outstanding RMB loansedged down to7.6% inDecfrom7.7%,while the better-than-market expected flow of RMB loansdeclined15.4%to RMB990bn in Dec,following the 46.8%drop toRMB580bninNov.Growth of new loans to householdshas turned positiveto 57.6% the first time since Jan 24.Medium-and long-term loans saw aremarkable surge of 105% to RMB300bn in Dec thanks to the boominghousing sales whileshort-termloans remained subdued,dropping 22.5%.New loans to the corporate sectorsaw limited signs of improvement,dropping 45% in Dec to RMB490bn. Both short-term and medium & long-term borrowing remained subdued dropping 69% and 95% respectivelywhilebill financingnotablysurged 200% to RMB450bn, signalling cautiousbusiness sentiment. PBOC might further cut rates after the Trump shock and a decline ofthelatest stimulus effect in 2H25.Credit contraction is graduallybottoming out,as recent policy stimulus has eased financial liquiditycondition and expanded government financing. Households also increasedtheir long-term borrowing as housing market improved especially in higher-tier cities. However, credit demand in corporate sectors continued to slowdownas the overcapacity and deflation pressure restrained privatebusinesscapex.Looking forward,the monetary policy might remainaccommodative with possible RRR cut by 50bps in 1H25.2H25 may seeadditional policy rate cuts by 20-30bps as Trump might launch new tradewar after the US inflation trends lower and China’s latest policy stimuluseffect gradually diminishes.Outstanding social financing and loans maypick up 8.2% and7.7% at end-2025 after rising 8% and 7.6% at end-2024 Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:MoF, CMBIGMNote: OBS–off-balance sheet Source:MoF, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who isprimary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analystnor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Ho