人口快速老龄化背景下的健康和长期护理需求

D I S C U S S I O NP A P E R A PR I L 2 0 2 3 Natalia Aranco AraújoGisela M. Garcia Health and Long-Term Care Needsin a Context of Rapid Population Aging A Background Study for theWorld Bank Healthy Longevity Initiative Natalia Aranco Araújo and Gisela M. Garcia Health, Nutrition, and Population (HNP) Discussion Paper This series is produced by the Health, Nutrition, and Population Global Practice of theWorld Bank. The papers in this series aim to provide a vehicle for publishing preliminaryresults on HNP topics to encourage discussion and debate. The findings, interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should notbe attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to membersof its Board of Executive Directors, or to the countries they represent. Citation and the useof the material presented in this series should take into account this provisional character. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. Theboundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this workdo not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status ofany territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. For information regarding the HNP Discussion Paper Series, please contact the Editor,Jung-Hwan Choi at jchoi@worldbank.org or Erika Yanick at eyanick@worldbank.org. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank encourages thedissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, fornoncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed toWorld Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. © 2023 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433 All rights reserved. Health, Nutrition, and Population (HNP) Discussion Paper Health and Long-Term Care Needs in a Context of Rapid Population Aging Natalia Aranco Araújoaand Gisela M. Garciab aIndependent consultant, Montevideo, Uruguay.bHealth, Nutrition & Population, Latin America & Caribbean Region, World Bank, Washington, DC, USA. Prepared for the World Bank Healthy Longevity Initiative World Bank, Washington, DC, USA April 2023 Abstract:This paper identifies key challenges in health care and long-term care as populationsage and provides examples of how countries are responding to them. The paper focuses ondeveloping countries that are aging fast, where anticipation and action are especially important.The paper highlights the need for a holistic strategy that focuses on strengthening health care andlong-term care systems and achieving universal care coverage, moving from a disease-centeredapproach to a person-centered one. But such a strategy should not focus exclusively on the olderpopulation. To solve the challenges brought by population aging, younger populations should notbe forgotten. How people age is, to a large extent, determined by their health earlier in life and thechoices they made when young. The range of policies should therefore promote healthy lifestyles,like physical activity and healthy eating, throughout the entire life course. A healthy aging agendacontributes to containing the costs associated with aging populations. Keywords:healthy longevity, aging, health care systems, long-term care. Disclaimer:The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in the paper are entirelythose of the authors, and do not represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, orthe countries they represent. Correspondence to: Gisela M. Garcia; 1818 H Street, Washington, DC USA; 202-460-2728;ggarcia3@worldbank.org. Table of Contents Overview.............................................................................................................................................................vi1. Introduction....................................................................................................................................................92. Main Trends in Longevity...................................................................................................................... 103. Aging, Health, and the Challenges for Health Care Systems................................................ 16Changing patterns of disease: the increase in chronic conditions and the importanceof multimorbidity........................................................................................................................................ 16The epidemiological transition in developing countries.............................................................19Challenges for health care systems and countries’ responses.............