A Blueprint for Resilience

A Blueprint forResilience: Chartingthe Course for WaterSecurity in Europe andCentral Asia Europe and Central Asia RegionRegional Water Security Assessment(P170030) Diagnostic ReportJune 2024 © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board ofExecutive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors,denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the partof the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of suchboundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank encourages dissemination of itsknowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as fullattribution to this work is given. Please cite the work as follows: Camilo Lombana Cordoba, Raimund Mair, Crystal Fenwick, Reetik Kumar Sahu,Barbara Anna Willaarts, Dor Fridman, Julian Joseph, Mikhail Smilovic, and Taher Kahil. 2024. “A Blueprint forResilience: Charting the Course for Water Security in Europe and Central Asia.”World Bank, Washington, DC. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org Cover design: GW, Inc Cover photo: Sebaku Murobak Lake, AdobeStock 975152565 Contents Protection from Water-Related Risks. . . . . . . .19Economic Outcomes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23Economic Benefits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24Economic Costs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27Environmental Outcomes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30Future Challenges and Opportunities. . . . . . . .33Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35 Executive Summaryxi Methodological Approach. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xiKey Findings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xiiPriority Action Areas to Enhance Water Securityacross Europe and Central Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . .xixNotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xxi 1Introduction1 4Water Endowment37 Objective. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1Scope and Structure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2Methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2The Water Security Diagnostic Framework. .2Operationalizing the WSDF. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2Climate-Change Scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3Advancing Water Security in Europe and CentralAsia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Water Availability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38Storage to Manage Water Variability. . . . . . . . . .40Transboundary Waters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42Water Demands. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43Future Challenges and Opportunities. . . . . . . .46Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50 5Water Sector Architecture51 Institutions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51Water Resources Management. . . . . . . . . . . .51National Regulatory Frameworks. . . . . . . . . . .52National and Basin-Level Arrangements. . . .55Transboundary Waters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59Irrigation and Drainage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .64Water Supply and Sanitation. . . . . . . . . . . . . .65Water Sector Financing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70Infrastructure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .80Water Supply and Sanitation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81Reservoirs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .84Irrigation and Drainage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .87Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .90 2Setting the Scene7 History. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8Climate and Geography. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9Demographics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9Population Growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11Socioeconomic Development. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12The Importance of a Water-Secure Future inEurope and Central Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . .