量化分析报告：择时雷达六面图：经济面情绪面恢复、资金面技术面弱化

择时雷达六面图：经济面情绪面恢复、资金面技术面弱化 择时雷达六面图。国盛金工的择时雷达六面图主要综合了宏观流动性、宏观经济、市场估值、资金流向、技术指标、情绪指标这六个维度的信息，使用了三十多个指标对未来权益市场给出择时观点并进行研判。基于各项指标的观点，综合给出[-5,5]的择时打分，当前的综合打分为-0.21分，整体为中性偏空观点。 作者 分析师刘富兵执业证书编号：S0680518030007邮箱：liufubing@gszq.com 分析师林志朋执业证书编号：S0680518100004邮箱：linzhipeng@gszq.com 分析师缪铃凯执业证书编号：S0680521120003邮箱：miaolingkai@gszq.com 流动性。代表信用的M2同比-GDP同比指标与SHIBOR 1W指标发出看多信号，M1同比、M1与PPI剪刀差发出看空信号，综合来看无显著信号。 分析师沈芷琦执业证书编号：S0680521120005邮箱：shenzhiqi@gszq.com 经济面。当前景气度、PMI开始上行趋势，发出看多信号。库存周期当前处于主动去区间，信号中性，发电量开始下行趋势，看出看空信号。综合来看经济面发出看多信号。 分析师梁思涵执业证书编号：S0680522070006邮箱：liangsihan@gszq.com 相关研究 估值面。本周中证800 PE中位数上行，PB估值上行，仍位于底部区域。中证800的股息率下行且股权风险溢价上行，仍处于较高水平，股票性价比较高。AIAE指标给出看多信号，DCF估值给出看空信号。综合来看维持上周的显著看多的信号。 1、《量化周报：市场30分钟级别反弹有望还会持续》2024-10-272、《量化分析报告：择时雷达六面图：情绪面有所弱化》2024-10-263、《量化周报：科创50、中证1000率先迎来30分钟级别反弹》2024-10-20 资金面。杠杆资金本周趋势下行发出看空信号，新增开户数无显著信号，综合后资金面发出看空信号。 技术面。当前均线距离发出看多信号，布林带、RSI、新高新低数、量价综合时钟发出看空信号，均线排列无显著信号，综合后技术面发出看空信号。 情绪面。成交金额、基金仓位、认购认沽比率发出看空信号，行业分歧度和SKEW指标发出看多信号，整体而言情绪面呈现中性偏空状态。 风险提示：以上结论均基于历史数据和统计模型的测算，如果未来市场环境发生明显改变，不排除模型失效的可能性。 内容目录 择时雷达六面图：经济面情绪面恢复、资金面技术面弱化......................................................................................41.流动性......................................................................................................................................................51.1货币................................................................................................................................................51.2信用................................................................................................................................................62.经济面......................................................................................................................................................82.1经济................................................................................................................................................82.2通胀..............................................................................................................................................103.估值面....................................................................................................................................................114.资金面....................................................................................................................................................144.1个人投资者....................................................................................................................................144.2杠杆资金.......................................................................................................................................145.技术面....................................................................................................................................................155.1均线类...........................................................................................................................................155.2通道类...........................................................................................................................................165.3相对强弱类....................................................................................................................................165.4量价类...........................................................................................................................................175.5量价综合指标.................................................................................................................................186.情绪面....................................................................................................................................................196.1长期情绪.......................................................................................................................................196.2短期情绪.......................................................................................................................................20 图表目录 图表1：当前六面图打分....................................................................................................................................4图表2：DR007偏离度......................................................................................................................................5图表3：SHIBOR:1W.........................................................................................................................................5图表4：M1:同比...............................................................................................................................................6图表5：M1同比-PPI同比..................................................................................................................................6图表6：M2同比-名义GDP增速.........................................................................................................................7图表7：信贷脉冲...........................................................................................................